The Dynamics Affecting the Export-Import Ratio in Turkey: A Hybrid Model Proposal with Econometrics and Machine Learning Approach
The indicators related to foreign trade are conventionally measured in a currency or as the ratio of the country's gross domestic products. The ratio of exports to imports, alternatively, provides more useful results when comparing the foreign trade performance of economies both over time and w...
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Istanbul University Press
2022-07-01
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| Series: | İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi |
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| Online Access: | https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/96F973891D2140079974EF03E64B7830 |
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| author | Erdemalp Özden |
| author_facet | Erdemalp Özden |
| author_sort | Erdemalp Özden |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The indicators related to foreign trade are conventionally measured in a currency or as the ratio of the country's gross domestic products. The ratio of exports to imports, alternatively, provides more useful results when comparing the foreign trade performance of economies both over time and with other countries as a unit-free indicator. In this study, the macroeconomics and financial determinants affecting this ratio are examined both econometrically and using the machine learning method. In this context, the autoregressive distributed lag model method was first used to investigate the relationship between normalized gross domestic products, exchange rate, consumer price index, producer price index, crude oil and Turkey's ratio of exports to imports rate between 2010- 2021, monthly. Long-term analysis showed that the 1% depreciation of the Turkish Liras against the US dollar increased the ratio of exports to imports rate by 0.7 points. In addition, a 1% increase in consumer price index will increase ratio of exports to imports by 1.9 points, while a 1% increase in producer price index will cause a -0.8 point decrease on the ratio of exports to imports. Then, the pattern between the variables was analyzed with quadratic support vector machine, a machine learning method. Finally, the novel ARDL-SVM hybrid method was developed, and the pattern between the variables was examined. The findings revealed that although the econometric method provided a broader scope for interpreting the relationships between variables, the developed ARDLSVM method successfully captured patterns between variables. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e1bdaff5cde944b0bffb3a6feac148fb |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2148-3876 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-07-01 |
| publisher | Istanbul University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi |
| spelling | doaj-art-e1bdaff5cde944b0bffb3a6feac148fb2025-08-20T02:15:38ZengIstanbul University Pressİktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi2148-38762022-07-019226529110.26650/JEPR1088322123456The Dynamics Affecting the Export-Import Ratio in Turkey: A Hybrid Model Proposal with Econometrics and Machine Learning ApproachErdemalp Özden0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5019-1675Bayburt Üniversitesi, Bayburt, TurkiyeThe indicators related to foreign trade are conventionally measured in a currency or as the ratio of the country's gross domestic products. The ratio of exports to imports, alternatively, provides more useful results when comparing the foreign trade performance of economies both over time and with other countries as a unit-free indicator. In this study, the macroeconomics and financial determinants affecting this ratio are examined both econometrically and using the machine learning method. In this context, the autoregressive distributed lag model method was first used to investigate the relationship between normalized gross domestic products, exchange rate, consumer price index, producer price index, crude oil and Turkey's ratio of exports to imports rate between 2010- 2021, monthly. Long-term analysis showed that the 1% depreciation of the Turkish Liras against the US dollar increased the ratio of exports to imports rate by 0.7 points. In addition, a 1% increase in consumer price index will increase ratio of exports to imports by 1.9 points, while a 1% increase in producer price index will cause a -0.8 point decrease on the ratio of exports to imports. Then, the pattern between the variables was analyzed with quadratic support vector machine, a machine learning method. Finally, the novel ARDL-SVM hybrid method was developed, and the pattern between the variables was examined. The findings revealed that although the econometric method provided a broader scope for interpreting the relationships between variables, the developed ARDLSVM method successfully captured patterns between variables.https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/96F973891D2140079974EF03E64B7830international tradeexport to import ratioardlsvmturkey |
| spellingShingle | Erdemalp Özden The Dynamics Affecting the Export-Import Ratio in Turkey: A Hybrid Model Proposal with Econometrics and Machine Learning Approach İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi international trade export to import ratio ardl svm turkey |
| title | The Dynamics Affecting the Export-Import Ratio in Turkey: A Hybrid Model Proposal with Econometrics and Machine Learning Approach |
| title_full | The Dynamics Affecting the Export-Import Ratio in Turkey: A Hybrid Model Proposal with Econometrics and Machine Learning Approach |
| title_fullStr | The Dynamics Affecting the Export-Import Ratio in Turkey: A Hybrid Model Proposal with Econometrics and Machine Learning Approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Dynamics Affecting the Export-Import Ratio in Turkey: A Hybrid Model Proposal with Econometrics and Machine Learning Approach |
| title_short | The Dynamics Affecting the Export-Import Ratio in Turkey: A Hybrid Model Proposal with Econometrics and Machine Learning Approach |
| title_sort | dynamics affecting the export import ratio in turkey a hybrid model proposal with econometrics and machine learning approach |
| topic | international trade export to import ratio ardl svm turkey |
| url | https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/96F973891D2140079974EF03E64B7830 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT erdemalpozden thedynamicsaffectingtheexportimportratiointurkeyahybridmodelproposalwitheconometricsandmachinelearningapproach AT erdemalpozden dynamicsaffectingtheexportimportratiointurkeyahybridmodelproposalwitheconometricsandmachinelearningapproach |