Unveiling the nonlinear impact: Green finance, carbon emission intensity, and digital economy integration

Amid the global push for sustainable development, reducing carbon emission intensity is essential. Green finance serves as a crucial instrument, yet its effects at different stages of development remain underexplored. Using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces (2011–2020), this study employs quadrat...

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Main Authors: Xiaonan Liu, Kaiwen Ji, Ying Sun, Jinglei Lu
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-06-01
Series:Sustainable Futures
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Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666188825001807
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author Xiaonan Liu
Kaiwen Ji
Ying Sun
Jinglei Lu
author_facet Xiaonan Liu
Kaiwen Ji
Ying Sun
Jinglei Lu
author_sort Xiaonan Liu
collection DOAJ
description Amid the global push for sustainable development, reducing carbon emission intensity is essential. Green finance serves as a crucial instrument, yet its effects at different stages of development remain underexplored. Using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces (2011–2020), this study employs quadratic, moderation, and mediation models to examine the nonlinear effects of green finance on carbon emission intensity, the moderating role of the digital economy, and the mediating effects of green innovation and marketization. Results show that green finance significantly reduces carbon emission intensity in the early stages but loses effectiveness beyond a certain threshold. The digital economy mitigates this diminishing effect, helping reduce carbon emission intensity at critical points. Additionally, the mechanism test results indicate that GF exerts a nonlinear influence on green innovation and marketization, initially promoting them but with diminishing effects over time, and indirectly impacting carbon emission intensity. The study highlights the importance of accounting for diminishing effectiveness when formulating green finance policies. To ensure long-term impact across different development stages, it is vital to integrate complementary factors, such as the digital economy. Future research should focus on dynamically evaluating green finance policies and examining the role of other economic and market factors, aiming to optimize environmental and economic outcomes at various stages of development.
format Article
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series Sustainable Futures
spelling doaj-art-e1a239d79cea4715ac1524b0356586ec2025-08-20T03:20:16ZengElsevierSustainable Futures2666-18882025-06-01910061010.1016/j.sftr.2025.100610Unveiling the nonlinear impact: Green finance, carbon emission intensity, and digital economy integrationXiaonan Liu0Kaiwen Ji1Ying Sun2Jinglei Lu3Management Science and Engineering Research Center, Jiangxi Normal University, Ziyang Street, Nanchang, 330022, Jiangxi, ChinaCollege of Political Science and Law, Jiangxi Normal University, Ziyang Street, Nanchang, 330022, Jiangxi, China; Corresponding author.Management Science and Engineering Research Center, Jiangxi Normal University, Ziyang Street, Nanchang, 330022, Jiangxi, ChinaJiangxi Economic Development Institute Center, Jiangxi Normal University, Ziyang Street, Nanchang, 330022, Jiangxi, ChinaAmid the global push for sustainable development, reducing carbon emission intensity is essential. Green finance serves as a crucial instrument, yet its effects at different stages of development remain underexplored. Using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces (2011–2020), this study employs quadratic, moderation, and mediation models to examine the nonlinear effects of green finance on carbon emission intensity, the moderating role of the digital economy, and the mediating effects of green innovation and marketization. Results show that green finance significantly reduces carbon emission intensity in the early stages but loses effectiveness beyond a certain threshold. The digital economy mitigates this diminishing effect, helping reduce carbon emission intensity at critical points. Additionally, the mechanism test results indicate that GF exerts a nonlinear influence on green innovation and marketization, initially promoting them but with diminishing effects over time, and indirectly impacting carbon emission intensity. The study highlights the importance of accounting for diminishing effectiveness when formulating green finance policies. To ensure long-term impact across different development stages, it is vital to integrate complementary factors, such as the digital economy. Future research should focus on dynamically evaluating green finance policies and examining the role of other economic and market factors, aiming to optimize environmental and economic outcomes at various stages of development.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666188825001807Green financeDigital economyPositive U-shapedModerating effectsMediating effect
spellingShingle Xiaonan Liu
Kaiwen Ji
Ying Sun
Jinglei Lu
Unveiling the nonlinear impact: Green finance, carbon emission intensity, and digital economy integration
Sustainable Futures
Green finance
Digital economy
Positive U-shaped
Moderating effects
Mediating effect
title Unveiling the nonlinear impact: Green finance, carbon emission intensity, and digital economy integration
title_full Unveiling the nonlinear impact: Green finance, carbon emission intensity, and digital economy integration
title_fullStr Unveiling the nonlinear impact: Green finance, carbon emission intensity, and digital economy integration
title_full_unstemmed Unveiling the nonlinear impact: Green finance, carbon emission intensity, and digital economy integration
title_short Unveiling the nonlinear impact: Green finance, carbon emission intensity, and digital economy integration
title_sort unveiling the nonlinear impact green finance carbon emission intensity and digital economy integration
topic Green finance
Digital economy
Positive U-shaped
Moderating effects
Mediating effect
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666188825001807
work_keys_str_mv AT xiaonanliu unveilingthenonlinearimpactgreenfinancecarbonemissionintensityanddigitaleconomyintegration
AT kaiwenji unveilingthenonlinearimpactgreenfinancecarbonemissionintensityanddigitaleconomyintegration
AT yingsun unveilingthenonlinearimpactgreenfinancecarbonemissionintensityanddigitaleconomyintegration
AT jingleilu unveilingthenonlinearimpactgreenfinancecarbonemissionintensityanddigitaleconomyintegration