The characterization, mechanism, predictability, and impacts of the unprecedented 2023 Southeast Asia heatwave

Abstract In April and May 2023, Southeast Asia (SEA) encountered an exceptional heatwave. The Continental SEA was hardest hit, where all the countries broke their highest temperature records with measurements exceeding 42 °C, and Thailand set the region’s new record of 49 °C. This study provides a c...

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Main Authors: Yang Lyu, Jingyu Wang, Xiefei Zhi, Xianfeng Wang, Hugh Zhang, Yonggang Wen, Edward Park, Joshua Lee, Xia Wan, Shoupeng Zhu, Duc Tran Dung
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2024-10-01
Series:npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00797-w
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author Yang Lyu
Jingyu Wang
Xiefei Zhi
Xianfeng Wang
Hugh Zhang
Yonggang Wen
Edward Park
Joshua Lee
Xia Wan
Shoupeng Zhu
Duc Tran Dung
author_facet Yang Lyu
Jingyu Wang
Xiefei Zhi
Xianfeng Wang
Hugh Zhang
Yonggang Wen
Edward Park
Joshua Lee
Xia Wan
Shoupeng Zhu
Duc Tran Dung
author_sort Yang Lyu
collection DOAJ
description Abstract In April and May 2023, Southeast Asia (SEA) encountered an exceptional heatwave. The Continental SEA was hardest hit, where all the countries broke their highest temperature records with measurements exceeding 42 °C, and Thailand set the region’s new record of 49 °C. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of this event by investigating its spatiotemporal evolution, physical mechanisms, forecast performance, return period, and extensive impacts. The enhanced high-pressure influenced by tropical waves, moisture deficiency and strong land-atmosphere coupling are considered as the key drivers to this extreme heatwave event. The ECMWF exhibited limited forecast skills for the reduced soil moisture and failed to capture the land-atmosphere coupling, leading to a severe underestimation of the heatwave’s intensity. Although the return period of this heatwave event is 129 years based on the rarity of temperature records, the combination of near-surface drying and soil moisture deficiency that triggered strong positive land-atmosphere feedback and rapid warming was extremely uncommon, with an occurrence probability of just 0.08%. These analyses underscore the exceptional nature of this unparalleled heatwave event and its underlying physical mechanisms, revealing its broad impacts, including significant health repercussions, a marked increase in wildfires, and diminished agricultural yields.
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spelling doaj-art-e1697707c3564b39afe9b3ba04c49f922025-08-20T02:17:45ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222024-10-017111210.1038/s41612-024-00797-wThe characterization, mechanism, predictability, and impacts of the unprecedented 2023 Southeast Asia heatwaveYang Lyu0Jingyu Wang1Xiefei Zhi2Xianfeng Wang3Hugh Zhang4Yonggang Wen5Edward Park6Joshua Lee7Xia Wan8Shoupeng Zhu9Duc Tran Dung10Key Laboratory of Meteorology Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME), Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC), Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNational Institute of Education (NIE), Nanyang Technological University (NTU)Key Laboratory of Meteorology Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME), Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC), Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyEarth Observatory of Singapore (EOS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU)Centre for Climate Research Singapore (CCRS)College of Computing and Data Science (CCDS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU)National Institute of Education (NIE), Nanyang Technological University (NTU)Centre for Climate Research Singapore (CCRS)Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research, Institute of Heavy Rain, China Meteorological Administration (CMA)Key Laboratory of Transportation Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration (KLTM), Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmospheric SciencesNational Institute of Education (NIE), Nanyang Technological University (NTU)Abstract In April and May 2023, Southeast Asia (SEA) encountered an exceptional heatwave. The Continental SEA was hardest hit, where all the countries broke their highest temperature records with measurements exceeding 42 °C, and Thailand set the region’s new record of 49 °C. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of this event by investigating its spatiotemporal evolution, physical mechanisms, forecast performance, return period, and extensive impacts. The enhanced high-pressure influenced by tropical waves, moisture deficiency and strong land-atmosphere coupling are considered as the key drivers to this extreme heatwave event. The ECMWF exhibited limited forecast skills for the reduced soil moisture and failed to capture the land-atmosphere coupling, leading to a severe underestimation of the heatwave’s intensity. Although the return period of this heatwave event is 129 years based on the rarity of temperature records, the combination of near-surface drying and soil moisture deficiency that triggered strong positive land-atmosphere feedback and rapid warming was extremely uncommon, with an occurrence probability of just 0.08%. These analyses underscore the exceptional nature of this unparalleled heatwave event and its underlying physical mechanisms, revealing its broad impacts, including significant health repercussions, a marked increase in wildfires, and diminished agricultural yields.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00797-w
spellingShingle Yang Lyu
Jingyu Wang
Xiefei Zhi
Xianfeng Wang
Hugh Zhang
Yonggang Wen
Edward Park
Joshua Lee
Xia Wan
Shoupeng Zhu
Duc Tran Dung
The characterization, mechanism, predictability, and impacts of the unprecedented 2023 Southeast Asia heatwave
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
title The characterization, mechanism, predictability, and impacts of the unprecedented 2023 Southeast Asia heatwave
title_full The characterization, mechanism, predictability, and impacts of the unprecedented 2023 Southeast Asia heatwave
title_fullStr The characterization, mechanism, predictability, and impacts of the unprecedented 2023 Southeast Asia heatwave
title_full_unstemmed The characterization, mechanism, predictability, and impacts of the unprecedented 2023 Southeast Asia heatwave
title_short The characterization, mechanism, predictability, and impacts of the unprecedented 2023 Southeast Asia heatwave
title_sort characterization mechanism predictability and impacts of the unprecedented 2023 southeast asia heatwave
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00797-w
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