Global estimates of groundwater withdrawal trends and uncertainties
Groundwater, Earth’s largest source of liquid freshwater, is essential for sustaining ecosystems and meeting societal demands. However, quantifying global groundwater withdrawals remains a significant challenge due to inherent uncertainties in input data, sectoral allocation assumptions, and model p...
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IOP Publishing
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adf6ca |
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| author | Sara Nazari Robert Reinecke Nils Moosdorf |
| author_facet | Sara Nazari Robert Reinecke Nils Moosdorf |
| author_sort | Sara Nazari |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Groundwater, Earth’s largest source of liquid freshwater, is essential for sustaining ecosystems and meeting societal demands. However, quantifying global groundwater withdrawals remains a significant challenge due to inherent uncertainties in input data, sectoral allocation assumptions, and model parameterization. In this study, we analyze global groundwater withdrawals from 2001 to 2020 using a newly developed data-driven Global Groundwater Withdrawal (GGW) model and quantify uncertainties through Monte Carlo simulations. The GGW model integrates reported country-level data with global grid-based datasets to estimate annual withdrawals across domestic, industrial, and agricultural sectors at a 0.1° resolution (≈10 km). Our results indicate an average global groundwater withdrawal of 648 km ^3 a ^−1 , with an uncertainty range of 465–881 km ^3 a ^−1 . Agriculture accounts for 50% of total withdrawals, followed by domestic use at 34.5% and industrial use at 15.5%. Temporal analysis shows increasing groundwater withdrawal in 66% of the 44 IPCC WGI reference regions over the 20 years, with a global average annual increase of 0.5% (varying regionally from 6.5% annual increase to 9% annual decrease). Comparison with previous studies highlights the impact of methodological choices and assumptions about groundwater withdrawal on the resulting global estimates. Our findings underscore the need for comprehensive uncertainty assessments and improved datasets. Expanding spatial coverage in underrepresented regions and enhancing temporal resolution, particularly for dynamic variables like irrigated areas, are crucial for more accurate groundwater withdrawal assessments. These improvements will enable better management and conservation of this vital resource in the face of growing global demands and climate change impacts. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e0bccda9b0b04832884a21e3d8befb44 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
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| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-e0bccda9b0b04832884a21e3d8befb442025-08-20T03:44:18ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262025-01-0120909404310.1088/1748-9326/adf6caGlobal estimates of groundwater withdrawal trends and uncertaintiesSara Nazari0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2997-4779Robert Reinecke1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5699-8584Nils Moosdorf2https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2822-8261Leibniz Centre for Tropical Marine Research (ZMT) , Bremen, Germany; Institute of Geosciences , Kiel University, Kiel, GermanyInstitute of Geography , Johannes Gutenberg-University Mainz, Mainz, GermanyLeibniz Centre for Tropical Marine Research (ZMT) , Bremen, Germany; Institute of Geosciences , Kiel University, Kiel, GermanyGroundwater, Earth’s largest source of liquid freshwater, is essential for sustaining ecosystems and meeting societal demands. However, quantifying global groundwater withdrawals remains a significant challenge due to inherent uncertainties in input data, sectoral allocation assumptions, and model parameterization. In this study, we analyze global groundwater withdrawals from 2001 to 2020 using a newly developed data-driven Global Groundwater Withdrawal (GGW) model and quantify uncertainties through Monte Carlo simulations. The GGW model integrates reported country-level data with global grid-based datasets to estimate annual withdrawals across domestic, industrial, and agricultural sectors at a 0.1° resolution (≈10 km). Our results indicate an average global groundwater withdrawal of 648 km ^3 a ^−1 , with an uncertainty range of 465–881 km ^3 a ^−1 . Agriculture accounts for 50% of total withdrawals, followed by domestic use at 34.5% and industrial use at 15.5%. Temporal analysis shows increasing groundwater withdrawal in 66% of the 44 IPCC WGI reference regions over the 20 years, with a global average annual increase of 0.5% (varying regionally from 6.5% annual increase to 9% annual decrease). Comparison with previous studies highlights the impact of methodological choices and assumptions about groundwater withdrawal on the resulting global estimates. Our findings underscore the need for comprehensive uncertainty assessments and improved datasets. Expanding spatial coverage in underrepresented regions and enhancing temporal resolution, particularly for dynamic variables like irrigated areas, are crucial for more accurate groundwater withdrawal assessments. These improvements will enable better management and conservation of this vital resource in the face of growing global demands and climate change impacts.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adf6caglobal groundwater withdrawalglobal hydrological cycle modelglobal groundwater withdrawal uncertainties |
| spellingShingle | Sara Nazari Robert Reinecke Nils Moosdorf Global estimates of groundwater withdrawal trends and uncertainties Environmental Research Letters global groundwater withdrawal global hydrological cycle model global groundwater withdrawal uncertainties |
| title | Global estimates of groundwater withdrawal trends and uncertainties |
| title_full | Global estimates of groundwater withdrawal trends and uncertainties |
| title_fullStr | Global estimates of groundwater withdrawal trends and uncertainties |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global estimates of groundwater withdrawal trends and uncertainties |
| title_short | Global estimates of groundwater withdrawal trends and uncertainties |
| title_sort | global estimates of groundwater withdrawal trends and uncertainties |
| topic | global groundwater withdrawal global hydrological cycle model global groundwater withdrawal uncertainties |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adf6ca |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT saranazari globalestimatesofgroundwaterwithdrawaltrendsanduncertainties AT robertreinecke globalestimatesofgroundwaterwithdrawaltrendsanduncertainties AT nilsmoosdorf globalestimatesofgroundwaterwithdrawaltrendsanduncertainties |