Identifying ecosystem supply–demand response thresholds for land use optimization: A case study of the Taihu Lake Basin, China
Optimized land-use management is a key approach to addressing the supply–demand mismatches and trade-offs in ecosystem services (ESs). This study, focusing on the Taihu Lake Basin (TLB) in China, analyzes climate, socioeconomic factors, land use, and ES demand from 2000 to 2020 and projects changes...
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Elsevier
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Ecological Indicators |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25004996 |
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| author | Yangyan Lin Xibao Xu Yan Tan Minkun Chen |
| author_facet | Yangyan Lin Xibao Xu Yan Tan Minkun Chen |
| author_sort | Yangyan Lin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Optimized land-use management is a key approach to addressing the supply–demand mismatches and trade-offs in ecosystem services (ESs). This study, focusing on the Taihu Lake Basin (TLB) in China, analyzes climate, socioeconomic factors, land use, and ES demand from 2000 to 2020 and projects changes for water yield (WY), carbon sequestration (CS), and food provision in the 2050 SSP-RCP scenarios (2020–2050). We identify land-use thresholds necessary for ES balance and synergy, with scenario analysis revealing differences in land expansion and degradation patterns. By 2050, forestland and grassland are projected to expand 4.01 % and 7.70 %, enhancing CS by 3.65 % under SSP126, while under SSP585, urban expansion (31 %) may increase CS supply–demand gap to − 18.77 × 108 t. Cropland, built-up land, and forestland are central in determining ES supply–demand balance and synergy. Cropland, built-up land, and forestland are central in determining ES supply–demand balance and synergy. For CS, the results show that built-up land use must not exceed 6.75 %, and forestland must cover at least 16.32 % in 2020. In future scenarios, these thresholds, under SSP126, urban land use would increase to 10.39 %, and forestland to 21.73 %; under SSP245, urban land use would stabilize at 6.80 %, with forestland reaching 21.88 %; and under SSP585, urban land use would decrease to 3.85 %, while forestland would increase significantly to 46.07 % by 2050. Comparative analysis of land-use structures and thresholds across scenarios reveals that the proportion of areas achieving balance and synergy is greater at grid scale than at county scale, highlighting the need to consider complexity and diversity in regions to improve these vital characteristics. We give evidence to inform policy and regulation, for sound long-term management of ES mismatches and trade-offs in the TLB. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e0b9edcb8ae64db88fd7f0a9ea37e154 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1470-160X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
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| series | Ecological Indicators |
| spelling | doaj-art-e0b9edcb8ae64db88fd7f0a9ea37e1542025-08-20T01:57:12ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2025-06-0117511356910.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113569Identifying ecosystem supply–demand response thresholds for land use optimization: A case study of the Taihu Lake Basin, ChinaYangyan Lin0Xibao Xu1Yan Tan2Minkun Chen3State Key Laboratory of Lake and Watershed Science for Water Security, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 211135, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Lake and Watershed Science for Water Security, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 211135, China; Corresponding author.Department of Geography, Environment and Population, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide 5000, AustraliaState Key Laboratory of Lake and Watershed Science for Water Security, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 211135, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaOptimized land-use management is a key approach to addressing the supply–demand mismatches and trade-offs in ecosystem services (ESs). This study, focusing on the Taihu Lake Basin (TLB) in China, analyzes climate, socioeconomic factors, land use, and ES demand from 2000 to 2020 and projects changes for water yield (WY), carbon sequestration (CS), and food provision in the 2050 SSP-RCP scenarios (2020–2050). We identify land-use thresholds necessary for ES balance and synergy, with scenario analysis revealing differences in land expansion and degradation patterns. By 2050, forestland and grassland are projected to expand 4.01 % and 7.70 %, enhancing CS by 3.65 % under SSP126, while under SSP585, urban expansion (31 %) may increase CS supply–demand gap to − 18.77 × 108 t. Cropland, built-up land, and forestland are central in determining ES supply–demand balance and synergy. Cropland, built-up land, and forestland are central in determining ES supply–demand balance and synergy. For CS, the results show that built-up land use must not exceed 6.75 %, and forestland must cover at least 16.32 % in 2020. In future scenarios, these thresholds, under SSP126, urban land use would increase to 10.39 %, and forestland to 21.73 %; under SSP245, urban land use would stabilize at 6.80 %, with forestland reaching 21.88 %; and under SSP585, urban land use would decrease to 3.85 %, while forestland would increase significantly to 46.07 % by 2050. Comparative analysis of land-use structures and thresholds across scenarios reveals that the proportion of areas achieving balance and synergy is greater at grid scale than at county scale, highlighting the need to consider complexity and diversity in regions to improve these vital characteristics. We give evidence to inform policy and regulation, for sound long-term management of ES mismatches and trade-offs in the TLB.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25004996SSP–RCP scenarioEcosystem services supply and demandLand-use thresholdsTaihu Lake BasinChina |
| spellingShingle | Yangyan Lin Xibao Xu Yan Tan Minkun Chen Identifying ecosystem supply–demand response thresholds for land use optimization: A case study of the Taihu Lake Basin, China Ecological Indicators SSP–RCP scenario Ecosystem services supply and demand Land-use thresholds Taihu Lake Basin China |
| title | Identifying ecosystem supply–demand response thresholds for land use optimization: A case study of the Taihu Lake Basin, China |
| title_full | Identifying ecosystem supply–demand response thresholds for land use optimization: A case study of the Taihu Lake Basin, China |
| title_fullStr | Identifying ecosystem supply–demand response thresholds for land use optimization: A case study of the Taihu Lake Basin, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Identifying ecosystem supply–demand response thresholds for land use optimization: A case study of the Taihu Lake Basin, China |
| title_short | Identifying ecosystem supply–demand response thresholds for land use optimization: A case study of the Taihu Lake Basin, China |
| title_sort | identifying ecosystem supply demand response thresholds for land use optimization a case study of the taihu lake basin china |
| topic | SSP–RCP scenario Ecosystem services supply and demand Land-use thresholds Taihu Lake Basin China |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25004996 |
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