Spatiotemporal variability and trends in extreme rainfall and temperature indices in Southeastern Oromia, Ethiopia
Abstract Extreme climatic events have become a significant global concern, exacerbating drought and flood risks in Ethiopia’s agricultural regions. This study presents the first multi-index analysis of 23 ETCCDI indices in southeastern Oromia (1994–2023) to address hydrological challenges. Using dat...
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Nature Portfolio
2025-08-01
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-08411-6 |
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| author | Yared Tesfaye Nigussie Dechassa Yibekal Alemayehu Dereje Ademe Birhan |
| author_facet | Yared Tesfaye Nigussie Dechassa Yibekal Alemayehu Dereje Ademe Birhan |
| author_sort | Yared Tesfaye |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Extreme climatic events have become a significant global concern, exacerbating drought and flood risks in Ethiopia’s agricultural regions. This study presents the first multi-index analysis of 23 ETCCDI indices in southeastern Oromia (1994–2023) to address hydrological challenges. Using data from nine meteorological stations, we analyzed spatiotemporal trends via the Modified Mann-Kendall test with Hamed and Rao’s autocorrelation correction, Theil–Sen slope estimator, descriptive statistics, linear regression, and Standardized Anomaly Index (SAI). Spatial interpolation employed Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW). The results show that the rainfall extremes (CWD, R20mm, R25mm) and temperature indices (TNn, SU25, CSDI, WSDI) exhibited high variability (CV > 30%). Significant declines occurred in RX1day, R95p, and R99p, while CDD increased by + 0.4 to + 1.17 days/year at 77.8% of stations. Warming trends dominated: TX90p and TN90p rose by 0.10 to 0.57 and 0.20 to 0.60 days/year, respectively; TXx and TNx increased by 0.03 to 0.2 °C/year and 0.05 to 0.12 °C/year at all stations. All stations showed rising TXx, TNx, TX90p, and TN90p, with 66.7% recording more SU days. Hot indices (TXx, TNx, TX90p, TN90p, SU) increased as cold indices (TNn, TXn, TX10p, TN10p) declined, highlighting warming asymmetry. Spatial analysis revealed station-specific variability, emphasizing localized climate risks. These trends demand urgent adaptive strategies to mitigate escalating climate threats in vulnerable regions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e0ab0cc94be647eabd2c5cd2e8347e5a |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
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| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-e0ab0cc94be647eabd2c5cd2e8347e5a2025-08-20T03:05:21ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-08-0115113010.1038/s41598-025-08411-6Spatiotemporal variability and trends in extreme rainfall and temperature indices in Southeastern Oromia, EthiopiaYared Tesfaye0Nigussie Dechassa1Yibekal Alemayehu2Dereje Ademe Birhan3Haramaya University College of Agricultural and Environmental SciencesEthiopian Institute of Agricultural ResearchCollege of Agriculture, School of Plant Sciences, Haramaya UniversityDepartment of Soil and Water Science, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of FloridaAbstract Extreme climatic events have become a significant global concern, exacerbating drought and flood risks in Ethiopia’s agricultural regions. This study presents the first multi-index analysis of 23 ETCCDI indices in southeastern Oromia (1994–2023) to address hydrological challenges. Using data from nine meteorological stations, we analyzed spatiotemporal trends via the Modified Mann-Kendall test with Hamed and Rao’s autocorrelation correction, Theil–Sen slope estimator, descriptive statistics, linear regression, and Standardized Anomaly Index (SAI). Spatial interpolation employed Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW). The results show that the rainfall extremes (CWD, R20mm, R25mm) and temperature indices (TNn, SU25, CSDI, WSDI) exhibited high variability (CV > 30%). Significant declines occurred in RX1day, R95p, and R99p, while CDD increased by + 0.4 to + 1.17 days/year at 77.8% of stations. Warming trends dominated: TX90p and TN90p rose by 0.10 to 0.57 and 0.20 to 0.60 days/year, respectively; TXx and TNx increased by 0.03 to 0.2 °C/year and 0.05 to 0.12 °C/year at all stations. All stations showed rising TXx, TNx, TX90p, and TN90p, with 66.7% recording more SU days. Hot indices (TXx, TNx, TX90p, TN90p, SU) increased as cold indices (TNn, TXn, TX10p, TN10p) declined, highlighting warming asymmetry. Spatial analysis revealed station-specific variability, emphasizing localized climate risks. These trends demand urgent adaptive strategies to mitigate escalating climate threats in vulnerable regions.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-08411-6Climate changeExtreme indicesMK trend testIDW |
| spellingShingle | Yared Tesfaye Nigussie Dechassa Yibekal Alemayehu Dereje Ademe Birhan Spatiotemporal variability and trends in extreme rainfall and temperature indices in Southeastern Oromia, Ethiopia Scientific Reports Climate change Extreme indices MK trend test IDW |
| title | Spatiotemporal variability and trends in extreme rainfall and temperature indices in Southeastern Oromia, Ethiopia |
| title_full | Spatiotemporal variability and trends in extreme rainfall and temperature indices in Southeastern Oromia, Ethiopia |
| title_fullStr | Spatiotemporal variability and trends in extreme rainfall and temperature indices in Southeastern Oromia, Ethiopia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Spatiotemporal variability and trends in extreme rainfall and temperature indices in Southeastern Oromia, Ethiopia |
| title_short | Spatiotemporal variability and trends in extreme rainfall and temperature indices in Southeastern Oromia, Ethiopia |
| title_sort | spatiotemporal variability and trends in extreme rainfall and temperature indices in southeastern oromia ethiopia |
| topic | Climate change Extreme indices MK trend test IDW |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-08411-6 |
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