Distribution mapping and risk assessment of lead in topsoil across the Tibetan Plateau

Lead exposure poses substantial long-term health risks, accounting for over 900,000 annual deaths worldwide and impairing cognitive development in more than 800 million children. Recent studies have indicated elevated soil lead contamination levels on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), yet critical knowledge...

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Main Authors: Linglong Chen, Ruxia Li, Ru Zhang, Yi Yang, Yonghua Li
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-09-01
Series:Ecotoxicology and Environmental Safety
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Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014765132501019X
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author Linglong Chen
Ruxia Li
Ru Zhang
Yi Yang
Yonghua Li
author_facet Linglong Chen
Ruxia Li
Ru Zhang
Yi Yang
Yonghua Li
author_sort Linglong Chen
collection DOAJ
description Lead exposure poses substantial long-term health risks, accounting for over 900,000 annual deaths worldwide and impairing cognitive development in more than 800 million children. Recent studies have indicated elevated soil lead contamination levels on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), yet critical knowledge gaps remain in understanding its spatial risk distribution patterns, environmental drivers, and the magnitude of vulnerable populations. To address these uncertainties, this study systematically analyzed 733 topsoil samples across the TP and developed a machine learning framework to generate a 250-meter resolution predictive map of lead concentrations exceeding the regional background value (28.9 mg/kg). The derived spatial distribution model was subsequently integrated with the Seventh National Census in China conducted in 2020 to quantify the at-risk population and identify dominant environmental predictors. Results revealed a geometric mean soil lead concentration of 31.22 mg/kg, with 25.24 % of sampling sites surpassing the background threshold. Hazard hotspots exhibited pronounced spatial clustering in southeastern TP and sporadic distribution across the northern plateau region. Estimates from at-risk population modeling indicate that approximately 4.11 million residents, including 250,000 children aged 0–4, face lead exposure risks, predominantly concentrated in the northeastern and south-central TP. Multivariate analysis identified soil pH and terrain slope as the primary environmental determinants on lead accumulation. These findings underscore the critical role of environmental variables in shaping the spatial distribution of soil lead levels across the TP. The study provides a methodological framework for developing targeted risk mitigation strategies and evidence-based zoning policies to safeguard vulnerable populations, particularly children and rural communities in high-risk regions.
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spelling doaj-art-e06b2b61261147ce84b176158f8672212025-08-20T03:36:10ZengElsevierEcotoxicology and Environmental Safety0147-65132025-09-0130211867410.1016/j.ecoenv.2025.118674Distribution mapping and risk assessment of lead in topsoil across the Tibetan PlateauLinglong Chen0Ruxia Li1Ru Zhang2Yi Yang3Yonghua Li4Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaInstitute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaSouth China Sea Marine Survey Center, Ministry of Natural Resources, Guangzhou, China; Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Survey Technology and Application, Ministry of Natural Resources, Guangzhou, ChinaInstitute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; Correspondence to: Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101, ChinaInstitute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; Correspondence to: Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101, ChinaLead exposure poses substantial long-term health risks, accounting for over 900,000 annual deaths worldwide and impairing cognitive development in more than 800 million children. Recent studies have indicated elevated soil lead contamination levels on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), yet critical knowledge gaps remain in understanding its spatial risk distribution patterns, environmental drivers, and the magnitude of vulnerable populations. To address these uncertainties, this study systematically analyzed 733 topsoil samples across the TP and developed a machine learning framework to generate a 250-meter resolution predictive map of lead concentrations exceeding the regional background value (28.9 mg/kg). The derived spatial distribution model was subsequently integrated with the Seventh National Census in China conducted in 2020 to quantify the at-risk population and identify dominant environmental predictors. Results revealed a geometric mean soil lead concentration of 31.22 mg/kg, with 25.24 % of sampling sites surpassing the background threshold. Hazard hotspots exhibited pronounced spatial clustering in southeastern TP and sporadic distribution across the northern plateau region. Estimates from at-risk population modeling indicate that approximately 4.11 million residents, including 250,000 children aged 0–4, face lead exposure risks, predominantly concentrated in the northeastern and south-central TP. Multivariate analysis identified soil pH and terrain slope as the primary environmental determinants on lead accumulation. These findings underscore the critical role of environmental variables in shaping the spatial distribution of soil lead levels across the TP. The study provides a methodological framework for developing targeted risk mitigation strategies and evidence-based zoning policies to safeguard vulnerable populations, particularly children and rural communities in high-risk regions.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014765132501019XSoil leadSpatial distribution patternHazard mappingMachine learningTibetan Plateau
spellingShingle Linglong Chen
Ruxia Li
Ru Zhang
Yi Yang
Yonghua Li
Distribution mapping and risk assessment of lead in topsoil across the Tibetan Plateau
Ecotoxicology and Environmental Safety
Soil lead
Spatial distribution pattern
Hazard mapping
Machine learning
Tibetan Plateau
title Distribution mapping and risk assessment of lead in topsoil across the Tibetan Plateau
title_full Distribution mapping and risk assessment of lead in topsoil across the Tibetan Plateau
title_fullStr Distribution mapping and risk assessment of lead in topsoil across the Tibetan Plateau
title_full_unstemmed Distribution mapping and risk assessment of lead in topsoil across the Tibetan Plateau
title_short Distribution mapping and risk assessment of lead in topsoil across the Tibetan Plateau
title_sort distribution mapping and risk assessment of lead in topsoil across the tibetan plateau
topic Soil lead
Spatial distribution pattern
Hazard mapping
Machine learning
Tibetan Plateau
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014765132501019X
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