How could 50 °C be reached in Paris: Analyzing the CMIP6 ensemble to design storylines for adaptation
Reaching a surface temperature of 50 °C in a heavily populated region, like Paris, would have devastating effects. Although such a high value seems far from the present-day record of 42.6 °C, its occurrence cannot be dismissed by the end of the 21st century, due to the continuous increase of global...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Climate Services |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000736 |
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| author | Pascal Yiou Robert Vautard Yoann Robin Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré Fabio D’Andrea Robin Noyelle |
| author_facet | Pascal Yiou Robert Vautard Yoann Robin Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré Fabio D’Andrea Robin Noyelle |
| author_sort | Pascal Yiou |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Reaching a surface temperature of 50 °C in a heavily populated region, like Paris, would have devastating effects. Although such a high value seems far from the present-day record of 42.6 °C, its occurrence cannot be dismissed by the end of the 21st century, due to the continuous increase of global mean temperature. In this paper, we address two questions that were asked by the City of Paris to a group of scientists: When does this event start to be likely? What are the prevailing meteorological conditions? We base our study on the CMIP6 simulation ensemble. Many of the CMIP6 yield biases in temperature. Rather than using methods of bias correction, which are not necessarily adapted to high extremes, we propose a pragmatic approach of model selection in order to seek such high temperature events that are deemed realistic. We analyze the meteorological conditions leading to first occurrences of such hot events and their common atmospheric patterns. This paper describes a simple data mining approach (on a large ensemble of climate model simulations) which could be adapted to other regions of the world, in order to help decision makers anticipating and adapting to such devastating meteorological events. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e04c6681cf704ee5926c914c1860a664 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2405-8807 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Climate Services |
| spelling | doaj-art-e04c6681cf704ee5926c914c1860a6642025-08-20T02:07:05ZengElsevierClimate Services2405-88072024-12-013610051810.1016/j.cliser.2024.100518How could 50 °C be reached in Paris: Analyzing the CMIP6 ensemble to design storylines for adaptationPascal Yiou0Robert Vautard1Yoann Robin2Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré3Fabio D’Andrea4Robin Noyelle5Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL & Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France; Corresponding author.Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL & Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL & Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL & Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceLaboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, UMR CNRS-X-ENS, IPSL & Université PSL, 75005 Paris, FranceLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL & Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceReaching a surface temperature of 50 °C in a heavily populated region, like Paris, would have devastating effects. Although such a high value seems far from the present-day record of 42.6 °C, its occurrence cannot be dismissed by the end of the 21st century, due to the continuous increase of global mean temperature. In this paper, we address two questions that were asked by the City of Paris to a group of scientists: When does this event start to be likely? What are the prevailing meteorological conditions? We base our study on the CMIP6 simulation ensemble. Many of the CMIP6 yield biases in temperature. Rather than using methods of bias correction, which are not necessarily adapted to high extremes, we propose a pragmatic approach of model selection in order to seek such high temperature events that are deemed realistic. We analyze the meteorological conditions leading to first occurrences of such hot events and their common atmospheric patterns. This paper describes a simple data mining approach (on a large ensemble of climate model simulations) which could be adapted to other regions of the world, in order to help decision makers anticipating and adapting to such devastating meteorological events.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000736HeatwavesCMIP6Model selectionParis |
| spellingShingle | Pascal Yiou Robert Vautard Yoann Robin Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré Fabio D’Andrea Robin Noyelle How could 50 °C be reached in Paris: Analyzing the CMIP6 ensemble to design storylines for adaptation Climate Services Heatwaves CMIP6 Model selection Paris |
| title | How could 50 °C be reached in Paris: Analyzing the CMIP6 ensemble to design storylines for adaptation |
| title_full | How could 50 °C be reached in Paris: Analyzing the CMIP6 ensemble to design storylines for adaptation |
| title_fullStr | How could 50 °C be reached in Paris: Analyzing the CMIP6 ensemble to design storylines for adaptation |
| title_full_unstemmed | How could 50 °C be reached in Paris: Analyzing the CMIP6 ensemble to design storylines for adaptation |
| title_short | How could 50 °C be reached in Paris: Analyzing the CMIP6 ensemble to design storylines for adaptation |
| title_sort | how could 50 °c be reached in paris analyzing the cmip6 ensemble to design storylines for adaptation |
| topic | Heatwaves CMIP6 Model selection Paris |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000736 |
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