An Ensemble Network for High-Accuracy and Long-Term Forecasting of Icing on Wind Turbines

Freezing of wind turbines causes loss of wind-generated power. Forecasting or prediction of icing on wind turbine blades based on SCADA sensor data allows taking appropriate actions before icing occurs. This paper presents a newly developed deep learning network model named PCTG (Parallel CNN-TCN GR...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Jiazhi Dai, Mario Rotea, Nasser Kehtarnavaz
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2024-12-01
Series:Sensors
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/1424-8220/24/24/8167
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1850060005925978112
author Jiazhi Dai
Mario Rotea
Nasser Kehtarnavaz
author_facet Jiazhi Dai
Mario Rotea
Nasser Kehtarnavaz
author_sort Jiazhi Dai
collection DOAJ
description Freezing of wind turbines causes loss of wind-generated power. Forecasting or prediction of icing on wind turbine blades based on SCADA sensor data allows taking appropriate actions before icing occurs. This paper presents a newly developed deep learning network model named PCTG (Parallel CNN-TCN GRU) for the purpose of high-accuracy and long-term prediction of icing on wind turbine blades. This model combines three networks, the CNN, TCN, and GRU, in order to incorporate both the temporal aspect of SCADA time-series data as well as the dependencies of SCADA variables. The experimentations conducted by using this model and SCADA data from three wind turbines in a wind farm have generated average prediction accuracies of about 97% for prediction horizons of up to 2 days ahead. The developed model is shown to maintain at least 95% prediction accuracy for long prediction horizons of up to 22 days ahead. Furthermore, for another wind farm SCADA dataset, it is shown that the developed PCTG model achieves over 99% icing prediction accuracy 10 days ahead.
format Article
id doaj-art-e03cca8da75e4234b8aa758cb1f3994b
institution DOAJ
issn 1424-8220
language English
publishDate 2024-12-01
publisher MDPI AG
record_format Article
series Sensors
spelling doaj-art-e03cca8da75e4234b8aa758cb1f3994b2025-08-20T02:50:43ZengMDPI AGSensors1424-82202024-12-012424816710.3390/s24248167An Ensemble Network for High-Accuracy and Long-Term Forecasting of Icing on Wind TurbinesJiazhi Dai0Mario Rotea1Nasser Kehtarnavaz2Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, TX 75080, USACenter for Wind Energy, University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, TX 75080, USADepartment of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, TX 75080, USAFreezing of wind turbines causes loss of wind-generated power. Forecasting or prediction of icing on wind turbine blades based on SCADA sensor data allows taking appropriate actions before icing occurs. This paper presents a newly developed deep learning network model named PCTG (Parallel CNN-TCN GRU) for the purpose of high-accuracy and long-term prediction of icing on wind turbine blades. This model combines three networks, the CNN, TCN, and GRU, in order to incorporate both the temporal aspect of SCADA time-series data as well as the dependencies of SCADA variables. The experimentations conducted by using this model and SCADA data from three wind turbines in a wind farm have generated average prediction accuracies of about 97% for prediction horizons of up to 2 days ahead. The developed model is shown to maintain at least 95% prediction accuracy for long prediction horizons of up to 22 days ahead. Furthermore, for another wind farm SCADA dataset, it is shown that the developed PCTG model achieves over 99% icing prediction accuracy 10 days ahead.https://www.mdpi.com/1424-8220/24/24/8167icing prediction on wind turbinesicing forecast using SCADA dataensemble CNN-TCN-GRU network
spellingShingle Jiazhi Dai
Mario Rotea
Nasser Kehtarnavaz
An Ensemble Network for High-Accuracy and Long-Term Forecasting of Icing on Wind Turbines
Sensors
icing prediction on wind turbines
icing forecast using SCADA data
ensemble CNN-TCN-GRU network
title An Ensemble Network for High-Accuracy and Long-Term Forecasting of Icing on Wind Turbines
title_full An Ensemble Network for High-Accuracy and Long-Term Forecasting of Icing on Wind Turbines
title_fullStr An Ensemble Network for High-Accuracy and Long-Term Forecasting of Icing on Wind Turbines
title_full_unstemmed An Ensemble Network for High-Accuracy and Long-Term Forecasting of Icing on Wind Turbines
title_short An Ensemble Network for High-Accuracy and Long-Term Forecasting of Icing on Wind Turbines
title_sort ensemble network for high accuracy and long term forecasting of icing on wind turbines
topic icing prediction on wind turbines
icing forecast using SCADA data
ensemble CNN-TCN-GRU network
url https://www.mdpi.com/1424-8220/24/24/8167
work_keys_str_mv AT jiazhidai anensemblenetworkforhighaccuracyandlongtermforecastingoficingonwindturbines
AT mariorotea anensemblenetworkforhighaccuracyandlongtermforecastingoficingonwindturbines
AT nasserkehtarnavaz anensemblenetworkforhighaccuracyandlongtermforecastingoficingonwindturbines
AT jiazhidai ensemblenetworkforhighaccuracyandlongtermforecastingoficingonwindturbines
AT mariorotea ensemblenetworkforhighaccuracyandlongtermforecastingoficingonwindturbines
AT nasserkehtarnavaz ensemblenetworkforhighaccuracyandlongtermforecastingoficingonwindturbines