When to boost: How dose timing determines the epidemic threshold
Most vaccines require multiple doses, the first to induce recognition and antibody production and subsequent doses to boost the primary response and achieve optimal protection. We show that properly prioritizing the administration of first and second doses can shift the epidemic threshold, separatin...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
American Physical Society
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Physical Review Research |
| Online Access: | http://doi.org/10.1103/cykd-2rjn |
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| _version_ | 1849243630622998528 |
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| author | Alessandro Celestini Francesca Colaiori Stefano Guarino Enrico Mastrostefano Francesca Pelusi Lena Rebecca Zastrow |
| author_facet | Alessandro Celestini Francesca Colaiori Stefano Guarino Enrico Mastrostefano Francesca Pelusi Lena Rebecca Zastrow |
| author_sort | Alessandro Celestini |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Most vaccines require multiple doses, the first to induce recognition and antibody production and subsequent doses to boost the primary response and achieve optimal protection. We show that properly prioritizing the administration of first and second doses can shift the epidemic threshold, separating the disease-free from the endemic state and potentially preventing widespread outbreaks. Assuming homogeneous mixing, we prove that at a low vaccination rate, the best strategy is to give absolute priority to first doses. In contrast, for high vaccination rates, we propose a scheduling that outperforms a first-come first-served approach. We identify the threshold that separates these two scenarios and derive the optimal prioritization scheme and interdose interval. Agent-based simulations on real and synthetic contact networks validate our findings. We provide specific guidelines for effective resource allocation, showing that adjusting the timing between the primer and booster significantly impacts epidemic outcomes and can determine whether the disease persists or disappears. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-dffa8b7da9764defb6e92eb792fda410 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2643-1564 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | American Physical Society |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Physical Review Research |
| spelling | doaj-art-dffa8b7da9764defb6e92eb792fda4102025-08-20T03:59:25ZengAmerican Physical SocietyPhysical Review Research2643-15642025-08-017303312510.1103/cykd-2rjnWhen to boost: How dose timing determines the epidemic thresholdAlessandro CelestiniFrancesca ColaioriStefano GuarinoEnrico MastrostefanoFrancesca PelusiLena Rebecca ZastrowMost vaccines require multiple doses, the first to induce recognition and antibody production and subsequent doses to boost the primary response and achieve optimal protection. We show that properly prioritizing the administration of first and second doses can shift the epidemic threshold, separating the disease-free from the endemic state and potentially preventing widespread outbreaks. Assuming homogeneous mixing, we prove that at a low vaccination rate, the best strategy is to give absolute priority to first doses. In contrast, for high vaccination rates, we propose a scheduling that outperforms a first-come first-served approach. We identify the threshold that separates these two scenarios and derive the optimal prioritization scheme and interdose interval. Agent-based simulations on real and synthetic contact networks validate our findings. We provide specific guidelines for effective resource allocation, showing that adjusting the timing between the primer and booster significantly impacts epidemic outcomes and can determine whether the disease persists or disappears.http://doi.org/10.1103/cykd-2rjn |
| spellingShingle | Alessandro Celestini Francesca Colaiori Stefano Guarino Enrico Mastrostefano Francesca Pelusi Lena Rebecca Zastrow When to boost: How dose timing determines the epidemic threshold Physical Review Research |
| title | When to boost: How dose timing determines the epidemic threshold |
| title_full | When to boost: How dose timing determines the epidemic threshold |
| title_fullStr | When to boost: How dose timing determines the epidemic threshold |
| title_full_unstemmed | When to boost: How dose timing determines the epidemic threshold |
| title_short | When to boost: How dose timing determines the epidemic threshold |
| title_sort | when to boost how dose timing determines the epidemic threshold |
| url | http://doi.org/10.1103/cykd-2rjn |
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