Precipitation, Time Series Models, Man-Kendall, Health Winters model, West Azerbaijan Province
Assessing and predicting future climate change is of particular importance due to its adverse effects on water resources and the natural environment, as well as its environmental, economic and social effects. Meanwhile, rainfall is also an important climatic element that causes a lot of damage in ex...
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Kharazmi University
2024-12-01
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| Series: | تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی |
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| Online Access: | http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3973-en.pdf |
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| author | Saeed jahanbakhshasl ali mohammadkhorshiddoust fatemeh abbsighasrik zahra abbasighasrik |
| author_facet | Saeed jahanbakhshasl ali mohammadkhorshiddoust fatemeh abbsighasrik zahra abbasighasrik |
| author_sort | Saeed jahanbakhshasl |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Assessing and predicting future climate change is of particular importance due to its adverse effects on water resources and the natural environment, as well as its environmental, economic and social effects. Meanwhile, rainfall is also an important climatic element that causes a lot of damage in excess conditions. West Azerbaijan Province is no exception. The aim of this study is to model and predict 30 years of rainfall in West Azerbaijan province. The statistical period studied is 32 years (2019-1987). Selected stations in the province include Urmia, Piranshahr, Takab, Khoy, Sardasht, Mahabad and Mako stations. Average slider time series models, Sarima (seasonal Arima), Health Winters were used for analysis and prediction and also linear regression and Mann-Kendall test were used to determine the data trend. The results show an increasing trend of precipitation in Urmia, Piranshahr, Khoy, Sardasht and Mako stations and a decreasing trend in Takab and Mahabad stations. According to the results of comparing the models used, the Health Winters model with the least error in the absolute mean of deviations, mean squared deviations and the percentage of absolute mean errors was introduced as the best precipitation forecasting model for West Azerbaijan province. province. [A1]
[A1] |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-df94a3f060824d32bed88f535cd08c4c |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2228-7736 2588-5138 |
| language | fas |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Kharazmi University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی |
| spelling | doaj-art-df94a3f060824d32bed88f535cd08c4c2025-01-31T17:32:13ZfasKharazmi Universityتحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی2228-77362588-51382024-12-01247598115Precipitation, Time Series Models, Man-Kendall, Health Winters model, West Azerbaijan ProvinceSaeed jahanbakhshasl0ali mohammadkhorshiddoust1fatemeh abbsighasrik2zahra abbasighasrik3 Professor, Department of climatology, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran Professor, Department of climatology, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran. Master of Meteorology and climatology, University of Tabri, Tabriz, Iran Master of Meteorology and climatology, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran. Assessing and predicting future climate change is of particular importance due to its adverse effects on water resources and the natural environment, as well as its environmental, economic and social effects. Meanwhile, rainfall is also an important climatic element that causes a lot of damage in excess conditions. West Azerbaijan Province is no exception. The aim of this study is to model and predict 30 years of rainfall in West Azerbaijan province. The statistical period studied is 32 years (2019-1987). Selected stations in the province include Urmia, Piranshahr, Takab, Khoy, Sardasht, Mahabad and Mako stations. Average slider time series models, Sarima (seasonal Arima), Health Winters were used for analysis and prediction and also linear regression and Mann-Kendall test were used to determine the data trend. The results show an increasing trend of precipitation in Urmia, Piranshahr, Khoy, Sardasht and Mako stations and a decreasing trend in Takab and Mahabad stations. According to the results of comparing the models used, the Health Winters model with the least error in the absolute mean of deviations, mean squared deviations and the percentage of absolute mean errors was introduced as the best precipitation forecasting model for West Azerbaijan province. province. [A1] [A1]http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3973-en.pdfprecipitationtime series modelsman-kendallhealth winters modelwest azerbaijan province |
| spellingShingle | Saeed jahanbakhshasl ali mohammadkhorshiddoust fatemeh abbsighasrik zahra abbasighasrik Precipitation, Time Series Models, Man-Kendall, Health Winters model, West Azerbaijan Province تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی precipitation time series models man-kendall health winters model west azerbaijan province |
| title | Precipitation, Time Series Models, Man-Kendall, Health Winters model, West Azerbaijan Province |
| title_full | Precipitation, Time Series Models, Man-Kendall, Health Winters model, West Azerbaijan Province |
| title_fullStr | Precipitation, Time Series Models, Man-Kendall, Health Winters model, West Azerbaijan Province |
| title_full_unstemmed | Precipitation, Time Series Models, Man-Kendall, Health Winters model, West Azerbaijan Province |
| title_short | Precipitation, Time Series Models, Man-Kendall, Health Winters model, West Azerbaijan Province |
| title_sort | precipitation time series models man kendall health winters model west azerbaijan province |
| topic | precipitation time series models man-kendall health winters model west azerbaijan province |
| url | http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3973-en.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT saeedjahanbakhshasl precipitationtimeseriesmodelsmankendallhealthwintersmodelwestazerbaijanprovince AT alimohammadkhorshiddoust precipitationtimeseriesmodelsmankendallhealthwintersmodelwestazerbaijanprovince AT fatemehabbsighasrik precipitationtimeseriesmodelsmankendallhealthwintersmodelwestazerbaijanprovince AT zahraabbasighasrik precipitationtimeseriesmodelsmankendallhealthwintersmodelwestazerbaijanprovince |