Carbon trade biases and the emerging mesoscale structure of the European Emissions Trading System network

Abstract The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is designed to promote cost-effective carbon emission reductions through allowance trading. However, observed trade patterns suggest potential inefficiencies. This study conducts a province-level analysis of the EU ETS trade network of al...

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Main Authors: Andrea Flori, Alessandro Spelta
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-06-01
Series:Nature Communications
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59913-w
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author Andrea Flori
Alessandro Spelta
author_facet Andrea Flori
Alessandro Spelta
author_sort Andrea Flori
collection DOAJ
description Abstract The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is designed to promote cost-effective carbon emission reductions through allowance trading. However, observed trade patterns suggest potential inefficiencies. This study conducts a province-level analysis of the EU ETS trade network of allowances, demonstrating that trades predominantly occur between entities within the same country and sector, even in recent phases of the system. To systematically examine the mesoscale structure of the trade network while accounting for geographical and sectoral homophily, we introduce a community detection framework based on the gravity model and optimal transport theory. By disentangling home and sectoral biases, we identify trade communities that align with cultural dimensions. Our findings reveal a complex interplay between geographical, economic, and cultural factors that shape carbon allowances trade patterns. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of structural constraints within the EU ETS trade network and inform strategies for improving its cost-effectiveness.
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spelling doaj-art-df6c47953e77443d83faeb01f9b0bd6a2025-08-20T02:30:42ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232025-06-0116111710.1038/s41467-025-59913-wCarbon trade biases and the emerging mesoscale structure of the European Emissions Trading System networkAndrea Flori0Alessandro Spelta1Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Politecnico di MilanoDepartment of Economics and Management, University of PaviaAbstract The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is designed to promote cost-effective carbon emission reductions through allowance trading. However, observed trade patterns suggest potential inefficiencies. This study conducts a province-level analysis of the EU ETS trade network of allowances, demonstrating that trades predominantly occur between entities within the same country and sector, even in recent phases of the system. To systematically examine the mesoscale structure of the trade network while accounting for geographical and sectoral homophily, we introduce a community detection framework based on the gravity model and optimal transport theory. By disentangling home and sectoral biases, we identify trade communities that align with cultural dimensions. Our findings reveal a complex interplay between geographical, economic, and cultural factors that shape carbon allowances trade patterns. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of structural constraints within the EU ETS trade network and inform strategies for improving its cost-effectiveness.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59913-w
spellingShingle Andrea Flori
Alessandro Spelta
Carbon trade biases and the emerging mesoscale structure of the European Emissions Trading System network
Nature Communications
title Carbon trade biases and the emerging mesoscale structure of the European Emissions Trading System network
title_full Carbon trade biases and the emerging mesoscale structure of the European Emissions Trading System network
title_fullStr Carbon trade biases and the emerging mesoscale structure of the European Emissions Trading System network
title_full_unstemmed Carbon trade biases and the emerging mesoscale structure of the European Emissions Trading System network
title_short Carbon trade biases and the emerging mesoscale structure of the European Emissions Trading System network
title_sort carbon trade biases and the emerging mesoscale structure of the european emissions trading system network
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59913-w
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AT alessandrospelta carbontradebiasesandtheemergingmesoscalestructureoftheeuropeanemissionstradingsystemnetwork