Weakened relationship between November Barents-Kara sea ice and January Arctic Oscillation after the mid-1990s

Abstract The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is a dominant atmospheric mode in the Northern Hemisphere, influencing weather and climate. Its variations are driven by numerous factors, including Arctic sea ice, particularly autumn Barents-Kara Sea ice concentration (SIC), which can significantly impact the A...

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Main Authors: Shuai Zheng, Peilong Yu, Bo Sun, Huijun Wang, Xiaopei Lin, Minghao Yang, Yudi Liu
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-08-01
Series:npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01186-7
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author Shuai Zheng
Peilong Yu
Bo Sun
Huijun Wang
Xiaopei Lin
Minghao Yang
Yudi Liu
author_facet Shuai Zheng
Peilong Yu
Bo Sun
Huijun Wang
Xiaopei Lin
Minghao Yang
Yudi Liu
author_sort Shuai Zheng
collection DOAJ
description Abstract The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is a dominant atmospheric mode in the Northern Hemisphere, influencing weather and climate. Its variations are driven by numerous factors, including Arctic sea ice, particularly autumn Barents-Kara Sea ice concentration (SIC), which can significantly impact the AO through planetary wave dynamics. However, the interdecadal stability of this relationship remains unclear. This study detected the weakened November Barents-Kara SIC-January AO connection after the mid-1990s. Observational and model analysis showed that from 1979 to 1994, their relationship was driven by the North Atlantic tripole (NAT) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, which influenced storm track activities over North Atlantic and Eurasia, thus inducing a wave train resembling the Scandinavian pattern. After the mid-1990s, weakened interannual variability of the NAT SST anomalies disrupted this mechanism. These findings highlight the critical role of mid-latitude ocean-atmosphere interactions in Arctic climate variability and emphasize the need for further research on long-term AO-SIC linkages.
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issn 2397-3722
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publishDate 2025-08-01
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series npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
spelling doaj-art-df6491243a584116a355a18c8b7c99ef2025-08-20T03:04:36ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222025-08-018111210.1038/s41612-025-01186-7Weakened relationship between November Barents-Kara sea ice and January Arctic Oscillation after the mid-1990sShuai Zheng0Peilong Yu1Bo Sun2Huijun Wang3Xiaopei Lin4Minghao Yang5Yudi Liu6College of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense TechnologyCollege of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense TechnologyState Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyState Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyPhysical Oceanography Laboratory/Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System/Sanya Oceanographic Institution, Ocean University of ChinaCollege of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense TechnologyCollege of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense TechnologyAbstract The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is a dominant atmospheric mode in the Northern Hemisphere, influencing weather and climate. Its variations are driven by numerous factors, including Arctic sea ice, particularly autumn Barents-Kara Sea ice concentration (SIC), which can significantly impact the AO through planetary wave dynamics. However, the interdecadal stability of this relationship remains unclear. This study detected the weakened November Barents-Kara SIC-January AO connection after the mid-1990s. Observational and model analysis showed that from 1979 to 1994, their relationship was driven by the North Atlantic tripole (NAT) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, which influenced storm track activities over North Atlantic and Eurasia, thus inducing a wave train resembling the Scandinavian pattern. After the mid-1990s, weakened interannual variability of the NAT SST anomalies disrupted this mechanism. These findings highlight the critical role of mid-latitude ocean-atmosphere interactions in Arctic climate variability and emphasize the need for further research on long-term AO-SIC linkages.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01186-7
spellingShingle Shuai Zheng
Peilong Yu
Bo Sun
Huijun Wang
Xiaopei Lin
Minghao Yang
Yudi Liu
Weakened relationship between November Barents-Kara sea ice and January Arctic Oscillation after the mid-1990s
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
title Weakened relationship between November Barents-Kara sea ice and January Arctic Oscillation after the mid-1990s
title_full Weakened relationship between November Barents-Kara sea ice and January Arctic Oscillation after the mid-1990s
title_fullStr Weakened relationship between November Barents-Kara sea ice and January Arctic Oscillation after the mid-1990s
title_full_unstemmed Weakened relationship between November Barents-Kara sea ice and January Arctic Oscillation after the mid-1990s
title_short Weakened relationship between November Barents-Kara sea ice and January Arctic Oscillation after the mid-1990s
title_sort weakened relationship between november barents kara sea ice and january arctic oscillation after the mid 1990s
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01186-7
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AT huijunwang weakenedrelationshipbetweennovemberbarentskaraseaiceandjanuaryarcticoscillationafterthemid1990s
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