An absolute risk model to identify individuals at elevated risk for pancreatic cancer in the general population.
<h4>Purpose</h4>We developed an absolute risk model to identify individuals in the general population at elevated risk of pancreatic cancer.<h4>Patients and methods</h4>Using data on 3,349 cases and 3,654 controls from the PanScan Consortium, we developed a relative risk mode...
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2013-01-01
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| author | Alison P Klein Sara Lindström Julie B Mendelsohn Emily Steplowski Alan A Arslan H Bas Bueno-de-Mesquita Charles S Fuchs Steven Gallinger Myron Gross Kathy Helzlsouer Elizabeth A Holly Eric J Jacobs Andrea Lacroix Donghui Li Margaret T Mandelson Sara H Olson Gloria M Petersen Harvey A Risch Rachael Z Stolzenberg-Solomon Wei Zheng Laufey Amundadottir Demetrius Albanes Naomi E Allen William R Bamlet Marie-Christine Boutron-Ruault Julie E Buring Paige M Bracci Federico Canzian Sandra Clipp Michelle Cotterchio Eric J Duell Joanne Elena J Michael Gaziano Edward L Giovannucci Michael Goggins Göran Hallmans Manal Hassan Amy Hutchinson David J Hunter Charles Kooperberg Robert C Kurtz Simin Liu Kim Overvad Domenico Palli Alpa V Patel Kari G Rabe Xiao-Ou Shu Nadia Slimani Geoffrey S Tobias Dimitrios Trichopoulos Stephen K Van Den Eeden Paolo Vineis Jarmo Virtamo Jean Wactawski-Wende Brian M Wolpin Herbert Yu Kai Yu Anne Zeleniuch-Jacquotte Stephen J Chanock Robert N Hoover Patricia Hartge Peter Kraft |
| author_facet | Alison P Klein Sara Lindström Julie B Mendelsohn Emily Steplowski Alan A Arslan H Bas Bueno-de-Mesquita Charles S Fuchs Steven Gallinger Myron Gross Kathy Helzlsouer Elizabeth A Holly Eric J Jacobs Andrea Lacroix Donghui Li Margaret T Mandelson Sara H Olson Gloria M Petersen Harvey A Risch Rachael Z Stolzenberg-Solomon Wei Zheng Laufey Amundadottir Demetrius Albanes Naomi E Allen William R Bamlet Marie-Christine Boutron-Ruault Julie E Buring Paige M Bracci Federico Canzian Sandra Clipp Michelle Cotterchio Eric J Duell Joanne Elena J Michael Gaziano Edward L Giovannucci Michael Goggins Göran Hallmans Manal Hassan Amy Hutchinson David J Hunter Charles Kooperberg Robert C Kurtz Simin Liu Kim Overvad Domenico Palli Alpa V Patel Kari G Rabe Xiao-Ou Shu Nadia Slimani Geoffrey S Tobias Dimitrios Trichopoulos Stephen K Van Den Eeden Paolo Vineis Jarmo Virtamo Jean Wactawski-Wende Brian M Wolpin Herbert Yu Kai Yu Anne Zeleniuch-Jacquotte Stephen J Chanock Robert N Hoover Patricia Hartge Peter Kraft |
| author_sort | Alison P Klein |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <h4>Purpose</h4>We developed an absolute risk model to identify individuals in the general population at elevated risk of pancreatic cancer.<h4>Patients and methods</h4>Using data on 3,349 cases and 3,654 controls from the PanScan Consortium, we developed a relative risk model for men and women of European ancestry based on non-genetic and genetic risk factors for pancreatic cancer. We estimated absolute risks based on these relative risks and population incidence rates.<h4>Results</h4>Our risk model included current smoking (multivariable adjusted odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval: 2.20 [1.84-2.62]), heavy alcohol use (>3 drinks/day) (OR: 1.45 [1.19-1.76]), obesity (body mass index >30 kg/m(2)) (OR: 1.26 [1.09-1.45]), diabetes >3 years (nested case-control OR: 1.57 [1.13-2.18], case-control OR: 1.80 [1.40-2.32]), family history of pancreatic cancer (OR: 1.60 [1.20-2.12]), non-O ABO genotype (AO vs. OO genotype) (OR: 1.23 [1.10-1.37]) to (BB vs. OO genotype) (OR 1.58 [0.97-2.59]), rs3790844(chr1q32.1) (OR: 1.29 [1.19-1.40]), rs401681(5p15.33) (OR: 1.18 [1.10-1.26]) and rs9543325(13q22.1) (OR: 1.27 [1.18-1.36]). The areas under the ROC curve for risk models including only non-genetic factors, only genetic factors, and both non-genetic and genetic factors were 58%, 57% and 61%, respectively. We estimate that fewer than 3/1,000 U.S. non-Hispanic whites have more than a 5% predicted lifetime absolute risk.<h4>Conclusion</h4>Although absolute risk modeling using established risk factors may help to identify a group of individuals at higher than average risk of pancreatic cancer, the immediate clinical utility of our model is limited. However, a risk model can increase awareness of the various risk factors for pancreatic cancer, including modifiable behaviors. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-df004024296a457dbf8a9b710f783b2e |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2013-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj-art-df004024296a457dbf8a9b710f783b2e2025-08-20T02:35:44ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032013-01-0189e7231110.1371/journal.pone.0072311An absolute risk model to identify individuals at elevated risk for pancreatic cancer in the general population.Alison P KleinSara LindströmJulie B MendelsohnEmily SteplowskiAlan A ArslanH Bas Bueno-de-MesquitaCharles S FuchsSteven GallingerMyron GrossKathy HelzlsouerElizabeth A HollyEric J JacobsAndrea LacroixDonghui LiMargaret T MandelsonSara H OlsonGloria M PetersenHarvey A RischRachael Z Stolzenberg-SolomonWei ZhengLaufey AmundadottirDemetrius AlbanesNaomi E AllenWilliam R BamletMarie-Christine Boutron-RuaultJulie E BuringPaige M BracciFederico CanzianSandra ClippMichelle CotterchioEric J DuellJoanne ElenaJ Michael GazianoEdward L GiovannucciMichael GogginsGöran HallmansManal HassanAmy HutchinsonDavid J HunterCharles KooperbergRobert C KurtzSimin LiuKim OvervadDomenico PalliAlpa V PatelKari G RabeXiao-Ou ShuNadia SlimaniGeoffrey S TobiasDimitrios TrichopoulosStephen K Van Den EedenPaolo VineisJarmo VirtamoJean Wactawski-WendeBrian M WolpinHerbert YuKai YuAnne Zeleniuch-JacquotteStephen J ChanockRobert N HooverPatricia HartgePeter Kraft<h4>Purpose</h4>We developed an absolute risk model to identify individuals in the general population at elevated risk of pancreatic cancer.<h4>Patients and methods</h4>Using data on 3,349 cases and 3,654 controls from the PanScan Consortium, we developed a relative risk model for men and women of European ancestry based on non-genetic and genetic risk factors for pancreatic cancer. We estimated absolute risks based on these relative risks and population incidence rates.<h4>Results</h4>Our risk model included current smoking (multivariable adjusted odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval: 2.20 [1.84-2.62]), heavy alcohol use (>3 drinks/day) (OR: 1.45 [1.19-1.76]), obesity (body mass index >30 kg/m(2)) (OR: 1.26 [1.09-1.45]), diabetes >3 years (nested case-control OR: 1.57 [1.13-2.18], case-control OR: 1.80 [1.40-2.32]), family history of pancreatic cancer (OR: 1.60 [1.20-2.12]), non-O ABO genotype (AO vs. OO genotype) (OR: 1.23 [1.10-1.37]) to (BB vs. OO genotype) (OR 1.58 [0.97-2.59]), rs3790844(chr1q32.1) (OR: 1.29 [1.19-1.40]), rs401681(5p15.33) (OR: 1.18 [1.10-1.26]) and rs9543325(13q22.1) (OR: 1.27 [1.18-1.36]). The areas under the ROC curve for risk models including only non-genetic factors, only genetic factors, and both non-genetic and genetic factors were 58%, 57% and 61%, respectively. We estimate that fewer than 3/1,000 U.S. non-Hispanic whites have more than a 5% predicted lifetime absolute risk.<h4>Conclusion</h4>Although absolute risk modeling using established risk factors may help to identify a group of individuals at higher than average risk of pancreatic cancer, the immediate clinical utility of our model is limited. However, a risk model can increase awareness of the various risk factors for pancreatic cancer, including modifiable behaviors.https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0072311&type=printable |
| spellingShingle | Alison P Klein Sara Lindström Julie B Mendelsohn Emily Steplowski Alan A Arslan H Bas Bueno-de-Mesquita Charles S Fuchs Steven Gallinger Myron Gross Kathy Helzlsouer Elizabeth A Holly Eric J Jacobs Andrea Lacroix Donghui Li Margaret T Mandelson Sara H Olson Gloria M Petersen Harvey A Risch Rachael Z Stolzenberg-Solomon Wei Zheng Laufey Amundadottir Demetrius Albanes Naomi E Allen William R Bamlet Marie-Christine Boutron-Ruault Julie E Buring Paige M Bracci Federico Canzian Sandra Clipp Michelle Cotterchio Eric J Duell Joanne Elena J Michael Gaziano Edward L Giovannucci Michael Goggins Göran Hallmans Manal Hassan Amy Hutchinson David J Hunter Charles Kooperberg Robert C Kurtz Simin Liu Kim Overvad Domenico Palli Alpa V Patel Kari G Rabe Xiao-Ou Shu Nadia Slimani Geoffrey S Tobias Dimitrios Trichopoulos Stephen K Van Den Eeden Paolo Vineis Jarmo Virtamo Jean Wactawski-Wende Brian M Wolpin Herbert Yu Kai Yu Anne Zeleniuch-Jacquotte Stephen J Chanock Robert N Hoover Patricia Hartge Peter Kraft An absolute risk model to identify individuals at elevated risk for pancreatic cancer in the general population. PLoS ONE |
| title | An absolute risk model to identify individuals at elevated risk for pancreatic cancer in the general population. |
| title_full | An absolute risk model to identify individuals at elevated risk for pancreatic cancer in the general population. |
| title_fullStr | An absolute risk model to identify individuals at elevated risk for pancreatic cancer in the general population. |
| title_full_unstemmed | An absolute risk model to identify individuals at elevated risk for pancreatic cancer in the general population. |
| title_short | An absolute risk model to identify individuals at elevated risk for pancreatic cancer in the general population. |
| title_sort | absolute risk model to identify individuals at elevated risk for pancreatic cancer in the general population |
| url | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0072311&type=printable |
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