Analysis and Prediction of Landscape Ecological Risk in Yellow River Basin
[Objective] The land use changes in the Yellow River basin during the past two decades were analyzed in order to predict land use in 2030, analyze the landscape pattern index, reveal ecological risk status, and assist with landscape protection, restoration, planning, and governance of the Yellow Riv...
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Science Press
2022-10-01
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| Series: | Shuitu baochi tongbao |
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| Online Access: | http://stbctb.alljournal.com.cn/stbctben/article/abstract/20220514 |
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| author | Du Wentao Li Xinping Song Jiawei Meng Chengzhen Wang Zhixiao |
| author_facet | Du Wentao Li Xinping Song Jiawei Meng Chengzhen Wang Zhixiao |
| author_sort | Du Wentao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | [Objective] The land use changes in the Yellow River basin during the past two decades were analyzed in order to predict land use in 2030, analyze the landscape pattern index, reveal ecological risk status, and assist with landscape protection, restoration, planning, and governance of the Yellow River basin. [Methods] The FLUS model with land use data from 2000, 2010, and 2020 was used combined with social, economic, topographic, and climatic data and other factors to predict the land use status of the area in 2030. A landscape ecological risk index was constructed through the landscape index, and an in-depth analysis was conducted. [Results] ① From 2000 to 2020, the area of cultivated land decreased by 12 150 km2, the area of forest land increased by 2 514 km2, and the area of construction land increased by 10 620 km2. ② The dominant landscapes in the Yellow River basin were grassland and cultivated land, but the dominance gradually decreased, the overall landscape connectivity increased, aggregation decreased, and landscape diversity increased over time, but the overall landscape was still unbalanced. ③ Landscape ecological risks in the work area were dominated by low and lower risks, supplemented by medium risk, accounting for more than 88% of the total area. The ecological risk areas were relatively stable in space and gradually deteriorated over time. ④ By 2030, the growth rate of construction land area will slow down, the area of cultivated land, grassland, and unused land will continue to decrease, and landscape fragmentation will increase. The low and lower ecological risk areas increased by 1.12%, the high risk areas increased by 0.26%, and the rest of the risk areas changed little. [Conclusion] The country's population growth and the gradual expansion of cities have had a huge impact on land use, resulting in fragmented landscapes. In addition, the environment of the Yellow River basin is fragile, with high sandstorm intensity, high degree of desertification, and increased regional ecological risks. The country needs to give more attention to ecological protection and high-quality development of the region. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-deae56206ea347b183d8c95a4da9b91f |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1000-288X |
| language | zho |
| publishDate | 2022-10-01 |
| publisher | Science Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Shuitu baochi tongbao |
| spelling | doaj-art-deae56206ea347b183d8c95a4da9b91f2025-08-20T02:57:26ZzhoScience PressShuitu baochi tongbao1000-288X2022-10-0142510511310.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2022.05.0141000-288X(2022)05-0105-09Analysis and Prediction of Landscape Ecological Risk in Yellow River BasinDu Wentao0Li Xinping1Song Jiawei2Meng Chengzhen3Wang Zhixiao4Institute of Geological and Mineral Resources Survey, Development of Geology and Mineral Resources of He'nan Province, Luoyang, He'nan 471000, ChinaInstitute of Geological and Mineral Resources Survey, Development of Geology and Mineral Resources of He'nan Province, Luoyang, He'nan 471000, ChinaInstitute of Geological and Mineral Resources Survey, Development of Geology and Mineral Resources of He'nan Province, Luoyang, He'nan 471000, ChinaInstitute of Geological and Mineral Resources Survey, Development of Geology and Mineral Resources of He'nan Province, Luoyang, He'nan 471000, ChinaInstitute of Geological and Mineral Resources Survey, Development of Geology and Mineral Resources of He'nan Province, Luoyang, He'nan 471000, China[Objective] The land use changes in the Yellow River basin during the past two decades were analyzed in order to predict land use in 2030, analyze the landscape pattern index, reveal ecological risk status, and assist with landscape protection, restoration, planning, and governance of the Yellow River basin. [Methods] The FLUS model with land use data from 2000, 2010, and 2020 was used combined with social, economic, topographic, and climatic data and other factors to predict the land use status of the area in 2030. A landscape ecological risk index was constructed through the landscape index, and an in-depth analysis was conducted. [Results] ① From 2000 to 2020, the area of cultivated land decreased by 12 150 km2, the area of forest land increased by 2 514 km2, and the area of construction land increased by 10 620 km2. ② The dominant landscapes in the Yellow River basin were grassland and cultivated land, but the dominance gradually decreased, the overall landscape connectivity increased, aggregation decreased, and landscape diversity increased over time, but the overall landscape was still unbalanced. ③ Landscape ecological risks in the work area were dominated by low and lower risks, supplemented by medium risk, accounting for more than 88% of the total area. The ecological risk areas were relatively stable in space and gradually deteriorated over time. ④ By 2030, the growth rate of construction land area will slow down, the area of cultivated land, grassland, and unused land will continue to decrease, and landscape fragmentation will increase. The low and lower ecological risk areas increased by 1.12%, the high risk areas increased by 0.26%, and the rest of the risk areas changed little. [Conclusion] The country's population growth and the gradual expansion of cities have had a huge impact on land use, resulting in fragmented landscapes. In addition, the environment of the Yellow River basin is fragile, with high sandstorm intensity, high degree of desertification, and increased regional ecological risks. The country needs to give more attention to ecological protection and high-quality development of the region.http://stbctb.alljournal.com.cn/stbctben/article/abstract/20220514yellow river basinland uselandscape patternecological riskflus model |
| spellingShingle | Du Wentao Li Xinping Song Jiawei Meng Chengzhen Wang Zhixiao Analysis and Prediction of Landscape Ecological Risk in Yellow River Basin Shuitu baochi tongbao yellow river basin land use landscape pattern ecological risk flus model |
| title | Analysis and Prediction of Landscape Ecological Risk in Yellow River Basin |
| title_full | Analysis and Prediction of Landscape Ecological Risk in Yellow River Basin |
| title_fullStr | Analysis and Prediction of Landscape Ecological Risk in Yellow River Basin |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analysis and Prediction of Landscape Ecological Risk in Yellow River Basin |
| title_short | Analysis and Prediction of Landscape Ecological Risk in Yellow River Basin |
| title_sort | analysis and prediction of landscape ecological risk in yellow river basin |
| topic | yellow river basin land use landscape pattern ecological risk flus model |
| url | http://stbctb.alljournal.com.cn/stbctben/article/abstract/20220514 |
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