Supershear source model of the 2025 M7.8 Myanmar earthquake and paleoseismology of the Sagaing Fault: regions of significant overlap with past earthquakes

The 2025 Mw 7.8 earthquake on the central Sagaing Fault is one of the most destructive seismic events in Myanmar's recorded history, producing near-fault shaking exceeding Modified Mercalli Intensity X and impacting tens of millions of people across Southeast Asia. We present a detailed kinema...

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Main Authors: Diego Melgar, Ray Weldon, Yu Wang, Mary Grace Bato, Lin Thu Aung, Xuhua Shi, Weerachat Wiwegwing, Saw Ngwe Khaing, Soe Min, Myo Thant, Cole Speed, Robert Zinke, Eric Fielding, Aron Meltzner, Timothy Dawson
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: McGill University 2025-07-01
Series:Seismica
Online Access:https://seismica.library.mcgill.ca/article/view/1771
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author Diego Melgar
Ray Weldon
Yu Wang
Mary Grace Bato
Lin Thu Aung
Xuhua Shi
Weerachat Wiwegwing
Saw Ngwe Khaing
Soe Min
Myo Thant
Cole Speed
Robert Zinke
Eric Fielding
Aron Meltzner
Timothy Dawson
author_facet Diego Melgar
Ray Weldon
Yu Wang
Mary Grace Bato
Lin Thu Aung
Xuhua Shi
Weerachat Wiwegwing
Saw Ngwe Khaing
Soe Min
Myo Thant
Cole Speed
Robert Zinke
Eric Fielding
Aron Meltzner
Timothy Dawson
author_sort Diego Melgar
collection DOAJ
description The 2025 Mw 7.8 earthquake on the central Sagaing Fault is one of the most destructive seismic events in Myanmar's recorded history, producing near-fault shaking exceeding Modified Mercalli Intensity X and impacting tens of millions of people across Southeast Asia. We present a detailed kinematic rupture model of the event based on joint inversion of regional strong motion waveforms and Sentinel-1 SAR pixel offsets. The rupture extended over ~450 km with an average slip of 3--5 m, predominantly within the upper 10 km of the crust. Inversions favor a maximum rupture speed of ~4.8 km/s, consistent with supershear propagation inferred from near-field waveform observations. We also report on paleoseismic evidence from a key site at the epicenter of the 2025 earthquake near Mandalay, which reveals five surface-rupturing earthquakes over the past millennium, with similar average displacement. Our results indicate a pattern of overlapping large ruptures along the central fault, with implications for rupture segmentation, recurrence, and seismic hazard. Given the exceptional exposure to earthquakes and high strain rates, our findings underscore the need for urgent attention to earthquake preparedness and infrastructure resilience in central Myanmar.
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spelling doaj-art-de534d0533874e97b904ad6efe656a932025-08-20T03:32:08ZengMcGill UniversitySeismica2816-93872025-07-014210.26443/seismica.v4i2.1771Supershear source model of the 2025 M7.8 Myanmar earthquake and paleoseismology of the Sagaing Fault: regions of significant overlap with past earthquakesDiego Melgar0Ray Weldon1Yu Wang2Mary Grace Bato3Lin Thu Aung4Xuhua Shi5Weerachat Wiwegwing6Saw Ngwe Khaing7Soe Min8Myo Thant9Cole Speed10Robert Zinke11Eric Fielding12Aron Meltzner13Timothy Dawson14Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR, USADepartment of Earth Sciences, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR, USADepartment of Geosciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, TaiwanJet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USAEarth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, SingaporeZhejiang University, Hangzhou, ChinaDepartment of Mineral Resources, Bangkok, ThailandDepartment of Geology, Hinthada University, MyanmarDepartment of Geology, Banmaw University, MyanmarMyanmar Institute of Earth and Planetary Sciences, and University of Yangon, MyanmarJet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USAJet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USAJet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USAEarth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore | Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, SingaporeCalifornia Geological Survey, San Mateo, CA, USA The 2025 Mw 7.8 earthquake on the central Sagaing Fault is one of the most destructive seismic events in Myanmar's recorded history, producing near-fault shaking exceeding Modified Mercalli Intensity X and impacting tens of millions of people across Southeast Asia. We present a detailed kinematic rupture model of the event based on joint inversion of regional strong motion waveforms and Sentinel-1 SAR pixel offsets. The rupture extended over ~450 km with an average slip of 3--5 m, predominantly within the upper 10 km of the crust. Inversions favor a maximum rupture speed of ~4.8 km/s, consistent with supershear propagation inferred from near-field waveform observations. We also report on paleoseismic evidence from a key site at the epicenter of the 2025 earthquake near Mandalay, which reveals five surface-rupturing earthquakes over the past millennium, with similar average displacement. Our results indicate a pattern of overlapping large ruptures along the central fault, with implications for rupture segmentation, recurrence, and seismic hazard. Given the exceptional exposure to earthquakes and high strain rates, our findings underscore the need for urgent attention to earthquake preparedness and infrastructure resilience in central Myanmar. https://seismica.library.mcgill.ca/article/view/1771
spellingShingle Diego Melgar
Ray Weldon
Yu Wang
Mary Grace Bato
Lin Thu Aung
Xuhua Shi
Weerachat Wiwegwing
Saw Ngwe Khaing
Soe Min
Myo Thant
Cole Speed
Robert Zinke
Eric Fielding
Aron Meltzner
Timothy Dawson
Supershear source model of the 2025 M7.8 Myanmar earthquake and paleoseismology of the Sagaing Fault: regions of significant overlap with past earthquakes
Seismica
title Supershear source model of the 2025 M7.8 Myanmar earthquake and paleoseismology of the Sagaing Fault: regions of significant overlap with past earthquakes
title_full Supershear source model of the 2025 M7.8 Myanmar earthquake and paleoseismology of the Sagaing Fault: regions of significant overlap with past earthquakes
title_fullStr Supershear source model of the 2025 M7.8 Myanmar earthquake and paleoseismology of the Sagaing Fault: regions of significant overlap with past earthquakes
title_full_unstemmed Supershear source model of the 2025 M7.8 Myanmar earthquake and paleoseismology of the Sagaing Fault: regions of significant overlap with past earthquakes
title_short Supershear source model of the 2025 M7.8 Myanmar earthquake and paleoseismology of the Sagaing Fault: regions of significant overlap with past earthquakes
title_sort supershear source model of the 2025 m7 8 myanmar earthquake and paleoseismology of the sagaing fault regions of significant overlap with past earthquakes
url https://seismica.library.mcgill.ca/article/view/1771
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