Changes in Malaria Patterns in Comoros from 2010 to 2021: A Comparative Study with Sub-Saharan Africa
Background: Recent setbacks in malaria control in Comoros demand a reassessment of its evolving epidemiology. Methods: Using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021 data, we analyzed malaria trends from 2010 to 2021, stratified by sex. We quantified the contributions of demographic and epidemi...
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2025-05-01
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| author | Sheng Zhou Linxin Yu Jianming Liang Wei Xie Guoming Li Changsheng Deng Jianping Song Guanyang Zou Yinhuan Chen |
| author_facet | Sheng Zhou Linxin Yu Jianming Liang Wei Xie Guoming Li Changsheng Deng Jianping Song Guanyang Zou Yinhuan Chen |
| author_sort | Sheng Zhou |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background: Recent setbacks in malaria control in Comoros demand a reassessment of its evolving epidemiology. Methods: Using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021 data, we analyzed malaria trends from 2010 to 2021, stratified by sex. We quantified the contributions of demographic and epidemiological factors to these trends and identified risk factors for malaria-related disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Results: From 2010 to 2021, malaria cases, deaths, and DALYs in Comoros fell by −90.22%, −94.44%, and −94.88%; and the corresponding age-standardized rates declined with EAPCs of −18.70% (95% CI: −33.77 to −0.20), −23.89% (95% CI: −36.58 to −8.66), and −24.49% (95% CI: −36.88 to −9.66), with steeper declines in males. Nevertheless, all indicators increased in 2018 and again in 2021. In sub-Saharan Africa, only cases increased, while other metrics declined slightly. In Comoros, incidence shifted mainly to adults ≥25 years, unlike sub-Saharan Africa, where children < 5 years were most affected. Population growth drove increases in cases, deaths and DALYs, whereas epidemiological shifts had the opposite effect. Child underweight was the leading risk factor for malaria DALYs. Conclusions: Existing interventions can achieve malaria control in Comoros; however, rebounds in 2018 and 2021 highlight the need to identify and address drivers of resurgence. |
| format | Article |
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| institution | OA Journals |
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| language | English |
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| series | Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease |
| spelling | doaj-art-de24d64c241d4106aff692ffc292ab722025-08-20T02:33:48ZengMDPI AGTropical Medicine and Infectious Disease2414-63662025-05-0110513810.3390/tropicalmed10050138Changes in Malaria Patterns in Comoros from 2010 to 2021: A Comparative Study with Sub-Saharan AfricaSheng Zhou0Linxin Yu1Jianming Liang2Wei Xie3Guoming Li4Changsheng Deng5Jianping Song6Guanyang Zou7Yinhuan Chen8Artemisinin Research Center, Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou 501405, ChinaArtemisinin Research Center, Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou 501405, ChinaArtemisinin Research Center, Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou 501405, ChinaInstitute of Science and Technology Park, Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou 510540, ChinaArtemisinin Research Center, Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou 501405, ChinaArtemisinin Research Center, Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou 501405, ChinaArtemisinin Research Center, Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou 501405, ChinaSchool of Public Health and Management, Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou 510006, ChinaThe First School of Clinical Medicine, Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou 501405, ChinaBackground: Recent setbacks in malaria control in Comoros demand a reassessment of its evolving epidemiology. Methods: Using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021 data, we analyzed malaria trends from 2010 to 2021, stratified by sex. We quantified the contributions of demographic and epidemiological factors to these trends and identified risk factors for malaria-related disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Results: From 2010 to 2021, malaria cases, deaths, and DALYs in Comoros fell by −90.22%, −94.44%, and −94.88%; and the corresponding age-standardized rates declined with EAPCs of −18.70% (95% CI: −33.77 to −0.20), −23.89% (95% CI: −36.58 to −8.66), and −24.49% (95% CI: −36.88 to −9.66), with steeper declines in males. Nevertheless, all indicators increased in 2018 and again in 2021. In sub-Saharan Africa, only cases increased, while other metrics declined slightly. In Comoros, incidence shifted mainly to adults ≥25 years, unlike sub-Saharan Africa, where children < 5 years were most affected. Population growth drove increases in cases, deaths and DALYs, whereas epidemiological shifts had the opposite effect. Child underweight was the leading risk factor for malaria DALYs. Conclusions: Existing interventions can achieve malaria control in Comoros; however, rebounds in 2018 and 2021 highlight the need to identify and address drivers of resurgence.https://www.mdpi.com/2414-6366/10/5/138malariaComorossub-Saharan Africatrend analysisestimated annual percent change (EAPC)decomposition analysis (DA) |
| spellingShingle | Sheng Zhou Linxin Yu Jianming Liang Wei Xie Guoming Li Changsheng Deng Jianping Song Guanyang Zou Yinhuan Chen Changes in Malaria Patterns in Comoros from 2010 to 2021: A Comparative Study with Sub-Saharan Africa Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease malaria Comoros sub-Saharan Africa trend analysis estimated annual percent change (EAPC) decomposition analysis (DA) |
| title | Changes in Malaria Patterns in Comoros from 2010 to 2021: A Comparative Study with Sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_full | Changes in Malaria Patterns in Comoros from 2010 to 2021: A Comparative Study with Sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_fullStr | Changes in Malaria Patterns in Comoros from 2010 to 2021: A Comparative Study with Sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | Changes in Malaria Patterns in Comoros from 2010 to 2021: A Comparative Study with Sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_short | Changes in Malaria Patterns in Comoros from 2010 to 2021: A Comparative Study with Sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_sort | changes in malaria patterns in comoros from 2010 to 2021 a comparative study with sub saharan africa |
| topic | malaria Comoros sub-Saharan Africa trend analysis estimated annual percent change (EAPC) decomposition analysis (DA) |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2414-6366/10/5/138 |
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