Changes in Malaria Patterns in Comoros from 2010 to 2021: A Comparative Study with Sub-Saharan Africa

Background: Recent setbacks in malaria control in Comoros demand a reassessment of its evolving epidemiology. Methods: Using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021 data, we analyzed malaria trends from 2010 to 2021, stratified by sex. We quantified the contributions of demographic and epidemi...

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Main Authors: Sheng Zhou, Linxin Yu, Jianming Liang, Wei Xie, Guoming Li, Changsheng Deng, Jianping Song, Guanyang Zou, Yinhuan Chen
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-05-01
Series:Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease
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Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2414-6366/10/5/138
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author Sheng Zhou
Linxin Yu
Jianming Liang
Wei Xie
Guoming Li
Changsheng Deng
Jianping Song
Guanyang Zou
Yinhuan Chen
author_facet Sheng Zhou
Linxin Yu
Jianming Liang
Wei Xie
Guoming Li
Changsheng Deng
Jianping Song
Guanyang Zou
Yinhuan Chen
author_sort Sheng Zhou
collection DOAJ
description Background: Recent setbacks in malaria control in Comoros demand a reassessment of its evolving epidemiology. Methods: Using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021 data, we analyzed malaria trends from 2010 to 2021, stratified by sex. We quantified the contributions of demographic and epidemiological factors to these trends and identified risk factors for malaria-related disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Results: From 2010 to 2021, malaria cases, deaths, and DALYs in Comoros fell by −90.22%, −94.44%, and −94.88%; and the corresponding age-standardized rates declined with EAPCs of −18.70% (95% CI: −33.77 to −0.20), −23.89% (95% CI: −36.58 to −8.66), and −24.49% (95% CI: −36.88 to −9.66), with steeper declines in males. Nevertheless, all indicators increased in 2018 and again in 2021. In sub-Saharan Africa, only cases increased, while other metrics declined slightly. In Comoros, incidence shifted mainly to adults ≥25 years, unlike sub-Saharan Africa, where children < 5 years were most affected. Population growth drove increases in cases, deaths and DALYs, whereas epidemiological shifts had the opposite effect. Child underweight was the leading risk factor for malaria DALYs. Conclusions: Existing interventions can achieve malaria control in Comoros; however, rebounds in 2018 and 2021 highlight the need to identify and address drivers of resurgence.
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spelling doaj-art-de24d64c241d4106aff692ffc292ab722025-08-20T02:33:48ZengMDPI AGTropical Medicine and Infectious Disease2414-63662025-05-0110513810.3390/tropicalmed10050138Changes in Malaria Patterns in Comoros from 2010 to 2021: A Comparative Study with Sub-Saharan AfricaSheng Zhou0Linxin Yu1Jianming Liang2Wei Xie3Guoming Li4Changsheng Deng5Jianping Song6Guanyang Zou7Yinhuan Chen8Artemisinin Research Center, Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou 501405, ChinaArtemisinin Research Center, Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou 501405, ChinaArtemisinin Research Center, Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou 501405, ChinaInstitute of Science and Technology Park, Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou 510540, ChinaArtemisinin Research Center, Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou 501405, ChinaArtemisinin Research Center, Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou 501405, ChinaArtemisinin Research Center, Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou 501405, ChinaSchool of Public Health and Management, Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou 510006, ChinaThe First School of Clinical Medicine, Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou 501405, ChinaBackground: Recent setbacks in malaria control in Comoros demand a reassessment of its evolving epidemiology. Methods: Using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021 data, we analyzed malaria trends from 2010 to 2021, stratified by sex. We quantified the contributions of demographic and epidemiological factors to these trends and identified risk factors for malaria-related disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Results: From 2010 to 2021, malaria cases, deaths, and DALYs in Comoros fell by −90.22%, −94.44%, and −94.88%; and the corresponding age-standardized rates declined with EAPCs of −18.70% (95% CI: −33.77 to −0.20), −23.89% (95% CI: −36.58 to −8.66), and −24.49% (95% CI: −36.88 to −9.66), with steeper declines in males. Nevertheless, all indicators increased in 2018 and again in 2021. In sub-Saharan Africa, only cases increased, while other metrics declined slightly. In Comoros, incidence shifted mainly to adults ≥25 years, unlike sub-Saharan Africa, where children < 5 years were most affected. Population growth drove increases in cases, deaths and DALYs, whereas epidemiological shifts had the opposite effect. Child underweight was the leading risk factor for malaria DALYs. Conclusions: Existing interventions can achieve malaria control in Comoros; however, rebounds in 2018 and 2021 highlight the need to identify and address drivers of resurgence.https://www.mdpi.com/2414-6366/10/5/138malariaComorossub-Saharan Africatrend analysisestimated annual percent change (EAPC)decomposition analysis (DA)
spellingShingle Sheng Zhou
Linxin Yu
Jianming Liang
Wei Xie
Guoming Li
Changsheng Deng
Jianping Song
Guanyang Zou
Yinhuan Chen
Changes in Malaria Patterns in Comoros from 2010 to 2021: A Comparative Study with Sub-Saharan Africa
Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease
malaria
Comoros
sub-Saharan Africa
trend analysis
estimated annual percent change (EAPC)
decomposition analysis (DA)
title Changes in Malaria Patterns in Comoros from 2010 to 2021: A Comparative Study with Sub-Saharan Africa
title_full Changes in Malaria Patterns in Comoros from 2010 to 2021: A Comparative Study with Sub-Saharan Africa
title_fullStr Changes in Malaria Patterns in Comoros from 2010 to 2021: A Comparative Study with Sub-Saharan Africa
title_full_unstemmed Changes in Malaria Patterns in Comoros from 2010 to 2021: A Comparative Study with Sub-Saharan Africa
title_short Changes in Malaria Patterns in Comoros from 2010 to 2021: A Comparative Study with Sub-Saharan Africa
title_sort changes in malaria patterns in comoros from 2010 to 2021 a comparative study with sub saharan africa
topic malaria
Comoros
sub-Saharan Africa
trend analysis
estimated annual percent change (EAPC)
decomposition analysis (DA)
url https://www.mdpi.com/2414-6366/10/5/138
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