Jean-Baptiste Gossé, L’Europe face aux déséquilibres mondiaux : une analyse historique, théorique et empirique
In the 2000s, the United States received a record transfer of saving. In this thesis, we study the consequences of global imbalances for Europe. Firstly, we highlight a British cycle of global imbalances (1815-1944) during which Europeans benefited from saving transfers and an American cycle (since...
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Association Recherche & Régulation
2010-12-01
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| Series: | Revue de la Régulation |
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| Online Access: | https://journals.openedition.org/regulation/9001 |
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| author | Jean-Baptiste Gossé |
| author_facet | Jean-Baptiste Gossé |
| author_sort | Jean-Baptiste Gossé |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In the 2000s, the United States received a record transfer of saving. In this thesis, we study the consequences of global imbalances for Europe. Firstly, we highlight a British cycle of global imbalances (1815-1944) during which Europeans benefited from saving transfers and an American cycle (since 1944) which Europeans did not really take part in. We built up a theoretical model to show that the British cycle is based on a “current account – foreign investments – investment income” loop which allowed countries in Europe to consume more than they produced while their foreign assets and investment incomes continued to rise. During the American cycle our model points out that the accumulation of global imbalances is due to the growth strategies of Asia, the OPEC and the United States which implies for Europe: (i) a slowdown in the growth; (ii) an appreciation of the euro; (iii) a weak impact on the current account balance. We use structural VAR model to confirm these three results for the euro area. Finally, we show with our theoretical model that if Europe had adopted a domestic demand-led strategy, the negative impact of global imbalances could have been avoided. The estimation of a long run relation between current account balance and budget deficit reveals that fiscal policy could have been an efficient way to deal with negative effects, especially for the small countries of the euro area. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-dd87fa952dec482da6919e699b5cb9be |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1957-7796 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2010-12-01 |
| publisher | Association Recherche & Régulation |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Revue de la Régulation |
| spelling | doaj-art-dd87fa952dec482da6919e699b5cb9be2025-01-30T14:25:31ZengAssociation Recherche & RégulationRevue de la Régulation1957-77962010-12-01810.4000/regulation.9001Jean-Baptiste Gossé, L’Europe face aux déséquilibres mondiaux : une analyse historique, théorique et empiriqueJean-Baptiste GosséIn the 2000s, the United States received a record transfer of saving. In this thesis, we study the consequences of global imbalances for Europe. Firstly, we highlight a British cycle of global imbalances (1815-1944) during which Europeans benefited from saving transfers and an American cycle (since 1944) which Europeans did not really take part in. We built up a theoretical model to show that the British cycle is based on a “current account – foreign investments – investment income” loop which allowed countries in Europe to consume more than they produced while their foreign assets and investment incomes continued to rise. During the American cycle our model points out that the accumulation of global imbalances is due to the growth strategies of Asia, the OPEC and the United States which implies for Europe: (i) a slowdown in the growth; (ii) an appreciation of the euro; (iii) a weak impact on the current account balance. We use structural VAR model to confirm these three results for the euro area. Finally, we show with our theoretical model that if Europe had adopted a domestic demand-led strategy, the negative impact of global imbalances could have been avoided. The estimation of a long run relation between current account balance and budget deficit reveals that fiscal policy could have been an efficient way to deal with negative effects, especially for the small countries of the euro area.https://journals.openedition.org/regulation/9001current account adjustmentHistory of international transfers of savinginternational economic orderopen economy macroeconomicseuro areaglobal imbalances |
| spellingShingle | Jean-Baptiste Gossé Jean-Baptiste Gossé, L’Europe face aux déséquilibres mondiaux : une analyse historique, théorique et empirique Revue de la Régulation current account adjustment History of international transfers of saving international economic order open economy macroeconomics euro area global imbalances |
| title | Jean-Baptiste Gossé, L’Europe face aux déséquilibres mondiaux : une analyse historique, théorique et empirique |
| title_full | Jean-Baptiste Gossé, L’Europe face aux déséquilibres mondiaux : une analyse historique, théorique et empirique |
| title_fullStr | Jean-Baptiste Gossé, L’Europe face aux déséquilibres mondiaux : une analyse historique, théorique et empirique |
| title_full_unstemmed | Jean-Baptiste Gossé, L’Europe face aux déséquilibres mondiaux : une analyse historique, théorique et empirique |
| title_short | Jean-Baptiste Gossé, L’Europe face aux déséquilibres mondiaux : une analyse historique, théorique et empirique |
| title_sort | jean baptiste gosse l europe face aux desequilibres mondiaux une analyse historique theorique et empirique |
| topic | current account adjustment History of international transfers of saving international economic order open economy macroeconomics euro area global imbalances |
| url | https://journals.openedition.org/regulation/9001 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jeanbaptistegosse jeanbaptistegosseleuropefaceauxdesequilibresmondiauxuneanalysehistoriquetheoriqueetempirique |