Characteristics of Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Extreme Precipitation in Haihe River Basin and Analysis of Future Trends
Revealing the spatial and temporal changes of extreme precipitation events is of great significance for the protection of water resources, disaster prevention and mitigation, and responses to climate change in the Haihe River Basin. In this paper, based on CN05.1 grid-point precipitation data and da...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | zho |
| Published: |
Editorial Office of Pearl River
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Renmin Zhujiang |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.renminzhujiang.cn/thesisDetails?columnId=112022752&Fpath=home&index=0 |
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| Summary: | Revealing the spatial and temporal changes of extreme precipitation events is of great significance for the protection of water resources, disaster prevention and mitigation, and responses to climate change in the Haihe River Basin. In this paper, based on CN05.1 grid-point precipitation data and data from nine climate models in the Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), this paper studied the characteristics of extreme precipitation changes in the Haihe River Basin under different past and future scenarios by using Delta downscaling, Sen's slope method, and Mann-Kendall trend test. The results indicate that: ①The data simulation effect after Delta deviation correction is relatively good and is suitable for the prediction of extreme precipitation. ② In the historical period (1980–2014), in terms of temporal changes, the total annual precipitation, the number of days with precipitation exceeding 10 mm, and the maximum five-day precipitation show a significant upward trend, and other indicators increase but do not reach a significant level; in terms of spatial changes, the extreme precipitation index generally shows the pattern of "low in the northwest and high in the southeast". ③ In the future period (2021–2100), the extreme precipitation index will generally show a strengthening trend in terms of temporal changes. In terms of spatial changes, compared with historical periods, the area where the rate of change of the extreme precipitation index increases under the high-emission scenario has significantly expanded. ④On a seasonal scale, the growth trends of the maximum one-day precipitation and the maximum five-day precipitation have significantly strengthened in summer and autumn, a change that may lead to more severe heavy rainfall and flooding in summer and autumn. |
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| ISSN: | 1001-9235 |