Identifiability investigation of within-host models of acute virus infection

Uncertainty in parameter estimates from fitting within-host models to empirical data limits the model's ability to uncover mechanisms of infection, disease progression, and to guide pharmaceutical interventions. Understanding the effect of model structure and data availability on model predicti...

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Main Authors: Yuganthi R. Liyanage, Nora Heitzman-Breen, Necibe Tuncer, Stanca M. Ciupe
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: AIMS Press 2024-10-01
Series:Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
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Online Access:https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2024325
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author Yuganthi R. Liyanage
Nora Heitzman-Breen
Necibe Tuncer
Stanca M. Ciupe
author_facet Yuganthi R. Liyanage
Nora Heitzman-Breen
Necibe Tuncer
Stanca M. Ciupe
author_sort Yuganthi R. Liyanage
collection DOAJ
description Uncertainty in parameter estimates from fitting within-host models to empirical data limits the model's ability to uncover mechanisms of infection, disease progression, and to guide pharmaceutical interventions. Understanding the effect of model structure and data availability on model predictions is important for informing model development and experimental design. To address sources of uncertainty in parameter estimation, we used four mathematical models of influenza A infection with increased degrees of biological realism. We tested the ability of each model to reveal its parameters in the presence of unlimited data by performing structural identifiability analyses. We then refined the results by predicting practical identifiability of parameters under daily influenza A virus titers alone or together with daily adaptive immune cell data. Using these approaches, we presented insight into the sources of uncertainty in parameter estimation and provided guidelines for the types of model assumptions, optimal experimental design, and biological information needed for improved predictions.
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institution Kabale University
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spelling doaj-art-dd17b767b6b34b359e8eb7c84a0d6ef62025-01-23T07:48:00ZengAIMS PressMathematical Biosciences and Engineering1551-00182024-10-0121107394742010.3934/mbe.2024325Identifiability investigation of within-host models of acute virus infectionYuganthi R. Liyanage0Nora Heitzman-Breen1Necibe Tuncer2Stanca M. Ciupe3Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, FL, USADepartment of Mathematics, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, USADepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, FL, USADepartment of Mathematics, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, USAUncertainty in parameter estimates from fitting within-host models to empirical data limits the model's ability to uncover mechanisms of infection, disease progression, and to guide pharmaceutical interventions. Understanding the effect of model structure and data availability on model predictions is important for informing model development and experimental design. To address sources of uncertainty in parameter estimation, we used four mathematical models of influenza A infection with increased degrees of biological realism. We tested the ability of each model to reveal its parameters in the presence of unlimited data by performing structural identifiability analyses. We then refined the results by predicting practical identifiability of parameters under daily influenza A virus titers alone or together with daily adaptive immune cell data. Using these approaches, we presented insight into the sources of uncertainty in parameter estimation and provided guidelines for the types of model assumptions, optimal experimental design, and biological information needed for improved predictions.https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2024325influenza virusmathematical modelingstructural identifiabilityprofile likelihoodoptimal experimental design
spellingShingle Yuganthi R. Liyanage
Nora Heitzman-Breen
Necibe Tuncer
Stanca M. Ciupe
Identifiability investigation of within-host models of acute virus infection
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
influenza virus
mathematical modeling
structural identifiability
profile likelihood
optimal experimental design
title Identifiability investigation of within-host models of acute virus infection
title_full Identifiability investigation of within-host models of acute virus infection
title_fullStr Identifiability investigation of within-host models of acute virus infection
title_full_unstemmed Identifiability investigation of within-host models of acute virus infection
title_short Identifiability investigation of within-host models of acute virus infection
title_sort identifiability investigation of within host models of acute virus infection
topic influenza virus
mathematical modeling
structural identifiability
profile likelihood
optimal experimental design
url https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2024325
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AT necibetuncer identifiabilityinvestigationofwithinhostmodelsofacutevirusinfection
AT stancamciupe identifiabilityinvestigationofwithinhostmodelsofacutevirusinfection