Moist Energy Constraints on Surface Temperature Variance Under Climate Warming

Abstract Understanding the factors controlling surface temperature variance is crucial for predicting temperature extremes. Previous investigations have examined individual impacts of temperature advection and surface turbulent fluxes on temperature fluctuations. Here, we explore the constraints on...

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Main Authors: Bowen Ge, Gang Chen, Jian Lu, Wenyu Zhou
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2025-05-01
Series:Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004612
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author Bowen Ge
Gang Chen
Jian Lu
Wenyu Zhou
author_facet Bowen Ge
Gang Chen
Jian Lu
Wenyu Zhou
author_sort Bowen Ge
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Understanding the factors controlling surface temperature variance is crucial for predicting temperature extremes. Previous investigations have examined individual impacts of temperature advection and surface turbulent fluxes on temperature fluctuations. Here, we explore the constraints on temperature variance from the moist static energy (MSE) balance and introduce a new scaling relation that connects the generation of temperature variance through moist energy transport with its dissipation due to the net energetic forcing of the atmosphere. This theory is evaluated in an idealized aquaplanet model. We find that surface temperature variance is influenced by eddy (sensible) heat flux, MSE gradient, and the Clausius‐Clapeyron relation for evaporative cooling. Under global warming, the reduced temperature variance in the aquaplanet model is dominated by the weakening in eddy heat flux, but it is also affected by changes in evaporative cooling and MSE gradient, which may be more important in realistic, moisture‐limited regions over land.
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institution OA Journals
issn 1942-2466
language English
publishDate 2025-05-01
publisher American Geophysical Union (AGU)
record_format Article
series Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
spelling doaj-art-dcf4ea55e5df49ef848220286fca42b92025-08-20T01:56:38ZengAmerican Geophysical Union (AGU)Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems1942-24662025-05-01175n/an/a10.1029/2024MS004612Moist Energy Constraints on Surface Temperature Variance Under Climate WarmingBowen Ge0Gang Chen1Jian Lu2Wenyu Zhou3Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences University of California Los Angeles CA USADepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences University of California Los Angeles CA USACollege of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences Ocean University of China Qingdao ChinaPacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland WA USAAbstract Understanding the factors controlling surface temperature variance is crucial for predicting temperature extremes. Previous investigations have examined individual impacts of temperature advection and surface turbulent fluxes on temperature fluctuations. Here, we explore the constraints on temperature variance from the moist static energy (MSE) balance and introduce a new scaling relation that connects the generation of temperature variance through moist energy transport with its dissipation due to the net energetic forcing of the atmosphere. This theory is evaluated in an idealized aquaplanet model. We find that surface temperature variance is influenced by eddy (sensible) heat flux, MSE gradient, and the Clausius‐Clapeyron relation for evaporative cooling. Under global warming, the reduced temperature variance in the aquaplanet model is dominated by the weakening in eddy heat flux, but it is also affected by changes in evaporative cooling and MSE gradient, which may be more important in realistic, moisture‐limited regions over land.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004612surface temperature variancemoist static energy (MSE)climate warmingeddy heat fluxevaporative coolingscaling relation
spellingShingle Bowen Ge
Gang Chen
Jian Lu
Wenyu Zhou
Moist Energy Constraints on Surface Temperature Variance Under Climate Warming
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
surface temperature variance
moist static energy (MSE)
climate warming
eddy heat flux
evaporative cooling
scaling relation
title Moist Energy Constraints on Surface Temperature Variance Under Climate Warming
title_full Moist Energy Constraints on Surface Temperature Variance Under Climate Warming
title_fullStr Moist Energy Constraints on Surface Temperature Variance Under Climate Warming
title_full_unstemmed Moist Energy Constraints on Surface Temperature Variance Under Climate Warming
title_short Moist Energy Constraints on Surface Temperature Variance Under Climate Warming
title_sort moist energy constraints on surface temperature variance under climate warming
topic surface temperature variance
moist static energy (MSE)
climate warming
eddy heat flux
evaporative cooling
scaling relation
url https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004612
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AT gangchen moistenergyconstraintsonsurfacetemperaturevarianceunderclimatewarming
AT jianlu moistenergyconstraintsonsurfacetemperaturevarianceunderclimatewarming
AT wenyuzhou moistenergyconstraintsonsurfacetemperaturevarianceunderclimatewarming