Reshaping heavy rare earth supply chains amidst China's stringent environmental regulations

China's official heavy rare earths (HREs) supply, vital to the global sustainable transition, has declined by 90% over the past 20 years. Global concerns have mounted regarding China's production quota policies, yet the real-world bottlenecks remain unclear. This study explores China'...

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Main Authors: Wei Chen, Peng Wang, Fanran Meng, Alexandra Pehlken, Qiao-Chu Wang, Wei-Qiang Chen
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: KeAi Communications Co. Ltd. 2025-03-01
Series:Fundamental Research
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Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667325824000232
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author Wei Chen
Peng Wang
Fanran Meng
Alexandra Pehlken
Qiao-Chu Wang
Wei-Qiang Chen
author_facet Wei Chen
Peng Wang
Fanran Meng
Alexandra Pehlken
Qiao-Chu Wang
Wei-Qiang Chen
author_sort Wei Chen
collection DOAJ
description China's official heavy rare earths (HREs) supply, vital to the global sustainable transition, has declined by 90% over the past 20 years. Global concerns have mounted regarding China's production quota policies, yet the real-world bottlenecks remain unclear. This study explores China's terbium (a critical HREs element) supply-demand conflicts and supply chain bottlenecks, and further simulates future potential changes. We identify a growing terbium shortage (a total of 3300 metric tons) in China as its registered production declined by 90% during the period from 2007 to 2018. Contrary to previous views that attribute HREs supply limitations to the production quota policy, we find that only 25% of China's quota related to HREs was utilized in 2018. Such a large quota-supply gap stems primarily from the enforced closures of HREs mines since the current mining techniques failed to reach strict environmental regulations. Furthermore, our simulations predict a 2–5-fold increase in terbium shortage by 2060 under the burgeoning ambitions in electric vehicles and wind power. However, this looming shortage could potentially be mitigated by 27%–70% under the scenario of breakthroughs in green mining techniques. This study highlights the urgency of seeking and promoting HREs green mining technologies, with implications for shifting global attention from geopolitical competition to green supply of rare earth and other minerals.
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publisher KeAi Communications Co. Ltd.
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spelling doaj-art-dcd16498a6224d188467718a2d09bc802025-08-20T02:10:09ZengKeAi Communications Co. Ltd.Fundamental Research2667-32582025-03-015250551310.1016/j.fmre.2023.11.019Reshaping heavy rare earth supply chains amidst China's stringent environmental regulationsWei Chen0Peng Wang1Fanran Meng2Alexandra Pehlken3Qiao-Chu Wang4Wei-Qiang Chen5Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China; State Key Laboratory for Ecological Security of Regions and Cities, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, ChinaState Key Laboratory for Ecological Security of Regions and Cities, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; Corresponding authors.Department of Chemical & Biological Engineering, The University of Sheffield, Sheffield, S1 3JD, United KingdomOFFIS – Institute for Information Technology, 26121 Oldenburg, GermanyState Key Laboratory for Ecological Security of Regions and Cities, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, ChinaDepartment of Environmental Science and Engineering, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China; State Key Laboratory for Ecological Security of Regions and Cities, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; Ganjiang Innovation Academy, Chinese Academy of Science, Ganzhou 341119, China; Corresponding authors.China's official heavy rare earths (HREs) supply, vital to the global sustainable transition, has declined by 90% over the past 20 years. Global concerns have mounted regarding China's production quota policies, yet the real-world bottlenecks remain unclear. This study explores China's terbium (a critical HREs element) supply-demand conflicts and supply chain bottlenecks, and further simulates future potential changes. We identify a growing terbium shortage (a total of 3300 metric tons) in China as its registered production declined by 90% during the period from 2007 to 2018. Contrary to previous views that attribute HREs supply limitations to the production quota policy, we find that only 25% of China's quota related to HREs was utilized in 2018. Such a large quota-supply gap stems primarily from the enforced closures of HREs mines since the current mining techniques failed to reach strict environmental regulations. Furthermore, our simulations predict a 2–5-fold increase in terbium shortage by 2060 under the burgeoning ambitions in electric vehicles and wind power. However, this looming shortage could potentially be mitigated by 27%–70% under the scenario of breakthroughs in green mining techniques. This study highlights the urgency of seeking and promoting HREs green mining technologies, with implications for shifting global attention from geopolitical competition to green supply of rare earth and other minerals.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667325824000232TerbiumHeavy rare earth elementsSupply chain bottlenecksGreen mining innovationSustainable transition
spellingShingle Wei Chen
Peng Wang
Fanran Meng
Alexandra Pehlken
Qiao-Chu Wang
Wei-Qiang Chen
Reshaping heavy rare earth supply chains amidst China's stringent environmental regulations
Fundamental Research
Terbium
Heavy rare earth elements
Supply chain bottlenecks
Green mining innovation
Sustainable transition
title Reshaping heavy rare earth supply chains amidst China's stringent environmental regulations
title_full Reshaping heavy rare earth supply chains amidst China's stringent environmental regulations
title_fullStr Reshaping heavy rare earth supply chains amidst China's stringent environmental regulations
title_full_unstemmed Reshaping heavy rare earth supply chains amidst China's stringent environmental regulations
title_short Reshaping heavy rare earth supply chains amidst China's stringent environmental regulations
title_sort reshaping heavy rare earth supply chains amidst china s stringent environmental regulations
topic Terbium
Heavy rare earth elements
Supply chain bottlenecks
Green mining innovation
Sustainable transition
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667325824000232
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