The fragile blue wall: analyzing geographies of the 2020 US presidential election

US presidential elections are peculiar contests based on mediation by an Electoral College in which votes are aggregated on a state-by-state basis. In 2020, as in 2016, the outcome was decided by a set of states where the two candidates were equally competitive: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: John Agnew, Michael Shin
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Firenze University Press 2021-07-01
Series:QOE-IJES
Subjects:
Online Access:https://oaj.fupress.net/index.php/qoe/article/view/10161
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1849432017356193792
author John Agnew
Michael Shin
author_facet John Agnew
Michael Shin
author_sort John Agnew
collection DOAJ
description US presidential elections are peculiar contests based on mediation by an Electoral College in which votes are aggregated on a state-by-state basis. In 2020, as in 2016, the outcome was decided by a set of states where the two candidates were equally competitive: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Two geographical stories tend to dominate accounts of what happened in 2020. The first story is based on red (Republican) versus blue (Democratic) states, and the second story relies upon rural versus urban biases in support for the two parties. After showing how and where Donald Trump outperformed the expectations of pre-election polls, we consider these two geographical stories both generally, and more specifically, in relation to the crucial swing states. Through an examination of the successes of Joe Biden in Arizona and Georgia, two states long thought of as “red”, and the role of the suburbs and local particularities in producing this result, we conclude that the polarization of the United States into two hostile electorates is exaggerated. 
format Article
id doaj-art-dc7a6bf5b23946b3a49014200fa0cf10
institution Kabale University
issn 0392-6753
2724-4679
language English
publishDate 2021-07-01
publisher Firenze University Press
record_format Article
series QOE-IJES
spelling doaj-art-dc7a6bf5b23946b3a49014200fa0cf102025-08-20T03:27:28ZengFirenze University PressQOE-IJES0392-67532724-46792021-07-0184110.36253/qoe-10161The fragile blue wall: analyzing geographies of the 2020 US presidential electionJohn Agnew0Michael Shin1Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles, CaliforniaDepartment of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles, CaliforniaUS presidential elections are peculiar contests based on mediation by an Electoral College in which votes are aggregated on a state-by-state basis. In 2020, as in 2016, the outcome was decided by a set of states where the two candidates were equally competitive: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Two geographical stories tend to dominate accounts of what happened in 2020. The first story is based on red (Republican) versus blue (Democratic) states, and the second story relies upon rural versus urban biases in support for the two parties. After showing how and where Donald Trump outperformed the expectations of pre-election polls, we consider these two geographical stories both generally, and more specifically, in relation to the crucial swing states. Through an examination of the successes of Joe Biden in Arizona and Georgia, two states long thought of as “red”, and the role of the suburbs and local particularities in producing this result, we conclude that the polarization of the United States into two hostile electorates is exaggerated.  https://oaj.fupress.net/index.php/qoe/article/view/10161Donald Trumpsuburbselectoral geography
spellingShingle John Agnew
Michael Shin
The fragile blue wall: analyzing geographies of the 2020 US presidential election
QOE-IJES
Donald Trump
suburbs
electoral geography
title The fragile blue wall: analyzing geographies of the 2020 US presidential election
title_full The fragile blue wall: analyzing geographies of the 2020 US presidential election
title_fullStr The fragile blue wall: analyzing geographies of the 2020 US presidential election
title_full_unstemmed The fragile blue wall: analyzing geographies of the 2020 US presidential election
title_short The fragile blue wall: analyzing geographies of the 2020 US presidential election
title_sort fragile blue wall analyzing geographies of the 2020 us presidential election
topic Donald Trump
suburbs
electoral geography
url https://oaj.fupress.net/index.php/qoe/article/view/10161
work_keys_str_mv AT johnagnew thefragilebluewallanalyzinggeographiesofthe2020uspresidentialelection
AT michaelshin thefragilebluewallanalyzinggeographiesofthe2020uspresidentialelection
AT johnagnew fragilebluewallanalyzinggeographiesofthe2020uspresidentialelection
AT michaelshin fragilebluewallanalyzinggeographiesofthe2020uspresidentialelection