Analysis of Observed and Projected Climate Change and Variability in Wheat Production Belts of Southeastern Oromia, Ethiopia
Agriculture is the main economic activity in the southeastern region of Oromia, Ethiopia. Food insecurity in this area is attributed to low agricultural productivity, primarily due to unfavorable climatic conditions. To identify climate change patterns and develop appropriate adaptation strategies,...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-01-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Agronomy |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/ioa/7226297 |
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| author | Yared Tesfaye Nigussie Dechassa Yibekal Alemayehu Dereje Ademe Birhan |
| author_facet | Yared Tesfaye Nigussie Dechassa Yibekal Alemayehu Dereje Ademe Birhan |
| author_sort | Yared Tesfaye |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Agriculture is the main economic activity in the southeastern region of Oromia, Ethiopia. Food insecurity in this area is attributed to low agricultural productivity, primarily due to unfavorable climatic conditions. To identify climate change patterns and develop appropriate adaptation strategies, it is essential to analyze long-term climate trends at the local level. This study examined baseline (1994–2023) and midcentury (2024–2059) rainfall and temperature data for selected locations in southeastern Ethiopia. Midcentury climate data for eight GCMs operating under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were obtained from the MarkSim database. The magnitude and significance of climate parameters were determined using Sen’s slope estimator and Mann–Kendall tests, respectively. The Mann–Kendall trend test results for annual, seasonal, and monthly rainfall revealed a noteworthy (p < 0.05) declining pattern at most stations during both the baseline and subsequent periods. The interannual temperature and rainfall variations were assessed. Using the rainfall anomaly index (RAI), precipitation concentration index (PCI), standard precipitation index (SPI), and variability coefficient. The findings revealed that rainfall in the region is generally low and highly variable, with a mean minimum annual rainfall of 747.76 mm and a mean maximum of 1206.5 mm at Sinana and Bore stations. However, annual and Kiremt rains revealed a notable (p < 0.005) rising pattern at the Bore station, while rainfall during the Belg season declines at all stations except Wadera and Bore. The CV values for annual (25%), Kiremt (30%), and Belg (71.5%) rainfall indicated elevated interannual fluctuations. The PCI analysis evidence suggested precipitation in the region exhibited moderate (PCI < 15%) to high variability (PCI > 15%) in both space and time, indicating moderate to irregular rainfall distribution and strong seasonality at most stations. The RAI values indicated the occurrence of severe drought at most stations. Similarly, the temperature has increased in all the studied stations throughout the previous 30 years, with an average yearly increase of 0.54°C in minimum temperature and 0.41°C in maximum temperature. Climate change is predicted to possess the highest impact on all stations, posing a significant risk to rainfed crop production. Therefore, it is crucial to use seasonal climate outlooks and implement local-level adaptation methods to mitigate the adverse consequences of climate change in the study stations. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-dc7424caa2ba4521993d7003c20a0cbe |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-8167 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Agronomy |
| spelling | doaj-art-dc7424caa2ba4521993d7003c20a0cbe2025-08-20T03:49:21ZengWileyInternational Journal of Agronomy1687-81672025-01-01202510.1155/ioa/7226297Analysis of Observed and Projected Climate Change and Variability in Wheat Production Belts of Southeastern Oromia, EthiopiaYared Tesfaye0Nigussie Dechassa1Yibekal Alemayehu2Dereje Ademe Birhan3Department of Plant SciencesFormer Leader of Africa Center of Excellence for Climate Smart Agriculture and Biodiversity ConservationDepartment of Plant SciencesCollege of Agriculture and Natural ResourcesAgriculture is the main economic activity in the southeastern region of Oromia, Ethiopia. Food insecurity in this area is attributed to low agricultural productivity, primarily due to unfavorable climatic conditions. To identify climate change patterns and develop appropriate adaptation strategies, it is essential to analyze long-term climate trends at the local level. This study examined baseline (1994–2023) and midcentury (2024–2059) rainfall and temperature data for selected locations in southeastern Ethiopia. Midcentury climate data for eight GCMs operating under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were obtained from the MarkSim database. The magnitude and significance of climate parameters were determined using Sen’s slope estimator and Mann–Kendall tests, respectively. The Mann–Kendall trend test results for annual, seasonal, and monthly rainfall revealed a noteworthy (p < 0.05) declining pattern at most stations during both the baseline and subsequent periods. The interannual temperature and rainfall variations were assessed. Using the rainfall anomaly index (RAI), precipitation concentration index (PCI), standard precipitation index (SPI), and variability coefficient. The findings revealed that rainfall in the region is generally low and highly variable, with a mean minimum annual rainfall of 747.76 mm and a mean maximum of 1206.5 mm at Sinana and Bore stations. However, annual and Kiremt rains revealed a notable (p < 0.005) rising pattern at the Bore station, while rainfall during the Belg season declines at all stations except Wadera and Bore. The CV values for annual (25%), Kiremt (30%), and Belg (71.5%) rainfall indicated elevated interannual fluctuations. The PCI analysis evidence suggested precipitation in the region exhibited moderate (PCI < 15%) to high variability (PCI > 15%) in both space and time, indicating moderate to irregular rainfall distribution and strong seasonality at most stations. The RAI values indicated the occurrence of severe drought at most stations. Similarly, the temperature has increased in all the studied stations throughout the previous 30 years, with an average yearly increase of 0.54°C in minimum temperature and 0.41°C in maximum temperature. Climate change is predicted to possess the highest impact on all stations, posing a significant risk to rainfed crop production. Therefore, it is crucial to use seasonal climate outlooks and implement local-level adaptation methods to mitigate the adverse consequences of climate change in the study stations.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/ioa/7226297 |
| spellingShingle | Yared Tesfaye Nigussie Dechassa Yibekal Alemayehu Dereje Ademe Birhan Analysis of Observed and Projected Climate Change and Variability in Wheat Production Belts of Southeastern Oromia, Ethiopia International Journal of Agronomy |
| title | Analysis of Observed and Projected Climate Change and Variability in Wheat Production Belts of Southeastern Oromia, Ethiopia |
| title_full | Analysis of Observed and Projected Climate Change and Variability in Wheat Production Belts of Southeastern Oromia, Ethiopia |
| title_fullStr | Analysis of Observed and Projected Climate Change and Variability in Wheat Production Belts of Southeastern Oromia, Ethiopia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analysis of Observed and Projected Climate Change and Variability in Wheat Production Belts of Southeastern Oromia, Ethiopia |
| title_short | Analysis of Observed and Projected Climate Change and Variability in Wheat Production Belts of Southeastern Oromia, Ethiopia |
| title_sort | analysis of observed and projected climate change and variability in wheat production belts of southeastern oromia ethiopia |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/ioa/7226297 |
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