A Big Data Optimization Approach for Estimating the Time-Dependent Effectiveness Profiles Against Hospitalization for Double- and Single-Dose Schemes: Study Case, COVID-19 in Elderly Mexicans
<b>Background:</b> The COVID-19 pandemic and its handling have made evident the cardinal role of vaccines in controlling the spread of diseases, especially around developed cities. Therefore, precisely characterizing their response has taken a relevant role. Unfortunately, substantial ev...
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MDPI AG
2025-03-01
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| author | Óscar A. González-Sánchez Luis Javier González-Ortiz María Judith Sánchez-Peña Humberto Gutiérrez-Pulido |
| author_facet | Óscar A. González-Sánchez Luis Javier González-Ortiz María Judith Sánchez-Peña Humberto Gutiérrez-Pulido |
| author_sort | Óscar A. González-Sánchez |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <b>Background:</b> The COVID-19 pandemic and its handling have made evident the cardinal role of vaccines in controlling the spread of diseases, especially around developed cities. Therefore, precisely characterizing their response has taken a relevant role. Unfortunately, substantial evidence has proven the time dependence of their effectiveness, requiring new approaches that account not only for single value estimations but also for time changes in the effectiveness. <b>Methodology:</b> A strategy is proposed to estimate a continuous profile representing the time evolution of the effectiveness against hospitalization. Such a strategy is showcased by characterizing the hospitalization behavior of elderly Mexicans during the COVID-19 pandemic (more than 15 million individuals). <b>Results</b>: It is demonstrated that practically total protection against hospitalization can be reached during a noticeable period. However, a substantial depletion in effectiveness occurs after such a plateau. Our methodology provides a continuous profile instead of only a few discrete values, offering insights unattainable by traditional strategies. Furthermore, the obtained profile details allowed for decoupling the effects of each dose independently, enabling the estimation of the expected effectiveness profile for a single-dose scheme. <b>Conclusions:</b> The comparison between both schemes (one or two doses) demonstrated that the two-dose scheme is far superior, offering a better investment for public health authorities. Concerning the strategy, the description capabilities of the proposal highly outperform currently available methodologies, allowing for detailed profiles describing the evolution of efficacy to be obtained. This not only opens the opportunity for fair comparison among available vaccines but also creates a tool for researchers studying the immune responses of polydose vaccines. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-dc366637307e4dd6b754d8f7cb4bf36f |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2076-393X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Vaccines |
| spelling | doaj-art-dc366637307e4dd6b754d8f7cb4bf36f2025-08-20T02:18:20ZengMDPI AGVaccines2076-393X2025-03-0113436310.3390/vaccines13040363A Big Data Optimization Approach for Estimating the Time-Dependent Effectiveness Profiles Against Hospitalization for Double- and Single-Dose Schemes: Study Case, COVID-19 in Elderly MexicansÓscar A. González-Sánchez0Luis Javier González-Ortiz1María Judith Sánchez-Peña2Humberto Gutiérrez-Pulido3Division of Technologies for the Cyber-Human Integration, Universitary Center of Exact Sciences and Engineering (CUCEI), University of Guadalajara, Marcelino García Barragán 1421, Col. Olímpica, Guadalajara CP 44430, Jalisco, MexicoDepartment of Chemistry, Universitary Center of Exact Sciences and Engineering (CUCEI), University of Guadalajara, Marcelino García Barragán 1421, Col. Olímpica, Guadalajara CP 44430, Jalisco, MexicoDepartment of Chemistry, Universitary Center of Exact Sciences and Engineering (CUCEI), University of Guadalajara, Marcelino García Barragán 1421, Col. Olímpica, Guadalajara CP 44430, Jalisco, MexicoDepartment of Mathematics, Universitary Center of Exact Sciences and Engineering (CUCEI), University of Guadalajara, Marcelino García Barragán 1421, Col. Olímpica, Guadalajara CP 44430, Jalisco, Mexico<b>Background:</b> The COVID-19 pandemic and its handling have made evident the cardinal role of vaccines in controlling the spread of diseases, especially around developed cities. Therefore, precisely characterizing their response has taken a relevant role. Unfortunately, substantial evidence has proven the time dependence of their effectiveness, requiring new approaches that account not only for single value estimations but also for time changes in the effectiveness. <b>Methodology:</b> A strategy is proposed to estimate a continuous profile representing the time evolution of the effectiveness against hospitalization. Such a strategy is showcased by characterizing the hospitalization behavior of elderly Mexicans during the COVID-19 pandemic (more than 15 million individuals). <b>Results</b>: It is demonstrated that practically total protection against hospitalization can be reached during a noticeable period. However, a substantial depletion in effectiveness occurs after such a plateau. Our methodology provides a continuous profile instead of only a few discrete values, offering insights unattainable by traditional strategies. Furthermore, the obtained profile details allowed for decoupling the effects of each dose independently, enabling the estimation of the expected effectiveness profile for a single-dose scheme. <b>Conclusions:</b> The comparison between both schemes (one or two doses) demonstrated that the two-dose scheme is far superior, offering a better investment for public health authorities. Concerning the strategy, the description capabilities of the proposal highly outperform currently available methodologies, allowing for detailed profiles describing the evolution of efficacy to be obtained. This not only opens the opportunity for fair comparison among available vaccines but also creates a tool for researchers studying the immune responses of polydose vaccines.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/13/4/363effectiveness profile against hospitalizationCOVID-19 vaccinestime-dependent effectivenessbeneficial effect profile against hospitalizationnumerical deconvolutionnational databases |
| spellingShingle | Óscar A. González-Sánchez Luis Javier González-Ortiz María Judith Sánchez-Peña Humberto Gutiérrez-Pulido A Big Data Optimization Approach for Estimating the Time-Dependent Effectiveness Profiles Against Hospitalization for Double- and Single-Dose Schemes: Study Case, COVID-19 in Elderly Mexicans Vaccines effectiveness profile against hospitalization COVID-19 vaccines time-dependent effectiveness beneficial effect profile against hospitalization numerical deconvolution national databases |
| title | A Big Data Optimization Approach for Estimating the Time-Dependent Effectiveness Profiles Against Hospitalization for Double- and Single-Dose Schemes: Study Case, COVID-19 in Elderly Mexicans |
| title_full | A Big Data Optimization Approach for Estimating the Time-Dependent Effectiveness Profiles Against Hospitalization for Double- and Single-Dose Schemes: Study Case, COVID-19 in Elderly Mexicans |
| title_fullStr | A Big Data Optimization Approach for Estimating the Time-Dependent Effectiveness Profiles Against Hospitalization for Double- and Single-Dose Schemes: Study Case, COVID-19 in Elderly Mexicans |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Big Data Optimization Approach for Estimating the Time-Dependent Effectiveness Profiles Against Hospitalization for Double- and Single-Dose Schemes: Study Case, COVID-19 in Elderly Mexicans |
| title_short | A Big Data Optimization Approach for Estimating the Time-Dependent Effectiveness Profiles Against Hospitalization for Double- and Single-Dose Schemes: Study Case, COVID-19 in Elderly Mexicans |
| title_sort | big data optimization approach for estimating the time dependent effectiveness profiles against hospitalization for double and single dose schemes study case covid 19 in elderly mexicans |
| topic | effectiveness profile against hospitalization COVID-19 vaccines time-dependent effectiveness beneficial effect profile against hospitalization numerical deconvolution national databases |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/13/4/363 |
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