Simulating the Effects of Aerosol‐Radiation Interactions on Subseasonal Prediction Using the Coupled Unified Forecast System and CCPP‐Chem: Interactive Aerosol Module Versus Prescribed Aerosol Climatology
Abstract This study investigates the effects of aerosol‐radiation interactions on subseasonal prediction using the Unified Forecast System, which includes atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and wave components, coupled with an aerosol module. The aerosol module is from the current NOAA operational GEFSv12‐...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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American Geophysical Union (AGU)
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004392 |
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| author | S. Sun G. A. Grell L. Zhang J. K. Henderson S. Wang D. Heinzeller H. Li J. Meixner P. S. Bhattacharjee |
| author_facet | S. Sun G. A. Grell L. Zhang J. K. Henderson S. Wang D. Heinzeller H. Li J. Meixner P. S. Bhattacharjee |
| author_sort | S. Sun |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract This study investigates the effects of aerosol‐radiation interactions on subseasonal prediction using the Unified Forecast System, which includes atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and wave components, coupled with an aerosol module. The aerosol module is from the current NOAA operational GEFSv12‐Aerosols model, which is based on the WRF‐Chem GOCART with updates to the dust scheme and the biomass burning plume rise module. It simulates five aerosol species: sulfate, dust, black carbon, organic carbon, and sea salt. The modeled aerosol optical depth (AOD) is compared to MERRA‐2 reanalysis, MODIS satellite retrievals, and ATom aircraft measurements. Despite biases primarily in dust and sea salt, the AOD shows good agreement globally. The simulated radiative forcing (RF) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) from the total aerosols is approximately −2.6 W/m2 or −16 W/m2 per unit AOD globally. In subsequent simulations, the prognostic aerosol module is replaced with climatological aerosol concentrations derived from the preceding experiments. While regional differences in RF at TOA between these two experiments are noticeable in specific events, the multi‐year subseasonal simulations reveal consistent patterns in RF at TOA, surface temperature, geopotential height at 500 hPa, and precipitation. These results suggest that given the current capacities of aerosol modeling, adopting a climatology of aerosol concentrations as a cost‐effective alternative to a complex aerosol module may be a practical approach for subseasonal applications. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-dbbc45920f9240b2a257f355b44c8447 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1942-2466 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems |
| spelling | doaj-art-dbbc45920f9240b2a257f355b44c84472025-08-20T03:09:19ZengAmerican Geophysical Union (AGU)Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems1942-24662025-07-01177n/an/a10.1029/2024MS004392Simulating the Effects of Aerosol‐Radiation Interactions on Subseasonal Prediction Using the Coupled Unified Forecast System and CCPP‐Chem: Interactive Aerosol Module Versus Prescribed Aerosol ClimatologyS. Sun0G. A. Grell1L. Zhang2J. K. Henderson3S. Wang4D. Heinzeller5H. Li6J. Meixner7P. S. Bhattacharjee8NOAA Global Systems Laboratory Boulder CO USANOAA Global Systems Laboratory Boulder CO USANOAA Global Systems Laboratory Boulder CO USANOAA Global Systems Laboratory Boulder CO USACooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences University of Colorado at Boulder Boulder CO USANOAA Global Systems Laboratory Boulder CO USANOAA Global Systems Laboratory Boulder CO USANOAA NCEP Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) College Park MD USASAIC at NCEP EMC College Park MD USAAbstract This study investigates the effects of aerosol‐radiation interactions on subseasonal prediction using the Unified Forecast System, which includes atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and wave components, coupled with an aerosol module. The aerosol module is from the current NOAA operational GEFSv12‐Aerosols model, which is based on the WRF‐Chem GOCART with updates to the dust scheme and the biomass burning plume rise module. It simulates five aerosol species: sulfate, dust, black carbon, organic carbon, and sea salt. The modeled aerosol optical depth (AOD) is compared to MERRA‐2 reanalysis, MODIS satellite retrievals, and ATom aircraft measurements. Despite biases primarily in dust and sea salt, the AOD shows good agreement globally. The simulated radiative forcing (RF) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) from the total aerosols is approximately −2.6 W/m2 or −16 W/m2 per unit AOD globally. In subsequent simulations, the prognostic aerosol module is replaced with climatological aerosol concentrations derived from the preceding experiments. While regional differences in RF at TOA between these two experiments are noticeable in specific events, the multi‐year subseasonal simulations reveal consistent patterns in RF at TOA, surface temperature, geopotential height at 500 hPa, and precipitation. These results suggest that given the current capacities of aerosol modeling, adopting a climatology of aerosol concentrations as a cost‐effective alternative to a complex aerosol module may be a practical approach for subseasonal applications.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004392aerosol radiation interactionssubseasonal predictionaerosol modeling |
| spellingShingle | S. Sun G. A. Grell L. Zhang J. K. Henderson S. Wang D. Heinzeller H. Li J. Meixner P. S. Bhattacharjee Simulating the Effects of Aerosol‐Radiation Interactions on Subseasonal Prediction Using the Coupled Unified Forecast System and CCPP‐Chem: Interactive Aerosol Module Versus Prescribed Aerosol Climatology Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems aerosol radiation interactions subseasonal prediction aerosol modeling |
| title | Simulating the Effects of Aerosol‐Radiation Interactions on Subseasonal Prediction Using the Coupled Unified Forecast System and CCPP‐Chem: Interactive Aerosol Module Versus Prescribed Aerosol Climatology |
| title_full | Simulating the Effects of Aerosol‐Radiation Interactions on Subseasonal Prediction Using the Coupled Unified Forecast System and CCPP‐Chem: Interactive Aerosol Module Versus Prescribed Aerosol Climatology |
| title_fullStr | Simulating the Effects of Aerosol‐Radiation Interactions on Subseasonal Prediction Using the Coupled Unified Forecast System and CCPP‐Chem: Interactive Aerosol Module Versus Prescribed Aerosol Climatology |
| title_full_unstemmed | Simulating the Effects of Aerosol‐Radiation Interactions on Subseasonal Prediction Using the Coupled Unified Forecast System and CCPP‐Chem: Interactive Aerosol Module Versus Prescribed Aerosol Climatology |
| title_short | Simulating the Effects of Aerosol‐Radiation Interactions on Subseasonal Prediction Using the Coupled Unified Forecast System and CCPP‐Chem: Interactive Aerosol Module Versus Prescribed Aerosol Climatology |
| title_sort | simulating the effects of aerosol radiation interactions on subseasonal prediction using the coupled unified forecast system and ccpp chem interactive aerosol module versus prescribed aerosol climatology |
| topic | aerosol radiation interactions subseasonal prediction aerosol modeling |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004392 |
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