Meteorological factors and normalized difference vegetation index drivers of scrub typhus incidence in Shandong Province based on a 16-year time-frequency analysis
Abstract Objective Scrub typhus, a natural epidemic disease that seriously impacts the health of the population, has imposed a substantial disease burden in Shandong Province. This study aimed to determine the periodicity of the scrub typhus incidence and identify the environmental risk factors affe...
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2025-02-01
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-025-21987-y |
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| author | Zhisong Ni Shufen Li Rui Xi Kemeng Liang Sihao Song Chuanlong Cheng Hui Zuo Liang Lu Xiujun Li |
| author_facet | Zhisong Ni Shufen Li Rui Xi Kemeng Liang Sihao Song Chuanlong Cheng Hui Zuo Liang Lu Xiujun Li |
| author_sort | Zhisong Ni |
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| description | Abstract Objective Scrub typhus, a natural epidemic disease that seriously impacts the health of the population, has imposed a substantial disease burden in Shandong Province. This study aimed to determine the periodicity of the scrub typhus incidence and identify the environmental risk factors affecting scrub typhus to help prevent and control its occurrence in Shandong Province. Methods Monthly cases of scrub typhus, mean air temperature, relative humidity, cumulative precipitation, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data in Shandong Province from 2006 to 2021 were collected. Wavelet analysis was used to determine the incidence period of scrub typhus and to explore the relationships between environmental factors and the incidence of scrub typhus. Additionally, partial wavelet coherence (PWC) was employed to identify whether meteorological factors affect the association between NDVI and scrub typhus incidence. Results Our results showed that scrub typhus incidence has a predominantly one-year period, followed by a less powerful six-month period. The wavelet coherence results revealed positive correlations between scrub typhus incidence and temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and NDVI. Meteorological factors had a lagged effect of approximately 1–2 months (The phase angles of temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity were 59.15°, 56.57°, and 47.17° respectively) on scrub typhus incidence, whereas NDVI showed a lagged effect of approximately 1–2 weeks (The phase angle of NDVI was 18.11°). On the basis of partial wavelet analysis, we found that temperature and precipitation affected the association between NDVI and scrub typhus incidence. Conclusion Meteorological factors and NDVI play important roles in the occurrence of scrub typhus in Shandong Province. Moreover, temperature and precipitation can affect the role of NDVI. This study provides valuable recommendations and resources for the timely detection, mitigation, and management of scrub typhus in Shandong Province. |
| format | Article |
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| issn | 1471-2458 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
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| series | BMC Public Health |
| spelling | doaj-art-db46fd2fcaf44b119b94efb5e19c26092025-08-20T02:01:42ZengBMCBMC Public Health1471-24582025-02-0125111310.1186/s12889-025-21987-yMeteorological factors and normalized difference vegetation index drivers of scrub typhus incidence in Shandong Province based on a 16-year time-frequency analysisZhisong Ni0Shufen Li1Rui Xi2Kemeng Liang3Sihao Song4Chuanlong Cheng5Hui Zuo6Liang Lu7Xiujun Li8Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong UniversityDepartment of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong UniversityDepartment of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong UniversityDepartment of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong UniversityDepartment of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong UniversityDepartment of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong UniversityDepartment of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong UniversityNational Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionDepartment of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong UniversityAbstract Objective Scrub typhus, a natural epidemic disease that seriously impacts the health of the population, has imposed a substantial disease burden in Shandong Province. This study aimed to determine the periodicity of the scrub typhus incidence and identify the environmental risk factors affecting scrub typhus to help prevent and control its occurrence in Shandong Province. Methods Monthly cases of scrub typhus, mean air temperature, relative humidity, cumulative precipitation, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data in Shandong Province from 2006 to 2021 were collected. Wavelet analysis was used to determine the incidence period of scrub typhus and to explore the relationships between environmental factors and the incidence of scrub typhus. Additionally, partial wavelet coherence (PWC) was employed to identify whether meteorological factors affect the association between NDVI and scrub typhus incidence. Results Our results showed that scrub typhus incidence has a predominantly one-year period, followed by a less powerful six-month period. The wavelet coherence results revealed positive correlations between scrub typhus incidence and temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and NDVI. Meteorological factors had a lagged effect of approximately 1–2 months (The phase angles of temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity were 59.15°, 56.57°, and 47.17° respectively) on scrub typhus incidence, whereas NDVI showed a lagged effect of approximately 1–2 weeks (The phase angle of NDVI was 18.11°). On the basis of partial wavelet analysis, we found that temperature and precipitation affected the association between NDVI and scrub typhus incidence. Conclusion Meteorological factors and NDVI play important roles in the occurrence of scrub typhus in Shandong Province. Moreover, temperature and precipitation can affect the role of NDVI. This study provides valuable recommendations and resources for the timely detection, mitigation, and management of scrub typhus in Shandong Province.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-025-21987-yScrub typhusWavelet analysisMeteorological factorsNDVIInteractions |
| spellingShingle | Zhisong Ni Shufen Li Rui Xi Kemeng Liang Sihao Song Chuanlong Cheng Hui Zuo Liang Lu Xiujun Li Meteorological factors and normalized difference vegetation index drivers of scrub typhus incidence in Shandong Province based on a 16-year time-frequency analysis BMC Public Health Scrub typhus Wavelet analysis Meteorological factors NDVI Interactions |
| title | Meteorological factors and normalized difference vegetation index drivers of scrub typhus incidence in Shandong Province based on a 16-year time-frequency analysis |
| title_full | Meteorological factors and normalized difference vegetation index drivers of scrub typhus incidence in Shandong Province based on a 16-year time-frequency analysis |
| title_fullStr | Meteorological factors and normalized difference vegetation index drivers of scrub typhus incidence in Shandong Province based on a 16-year time-frequency analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Meteorological factors and normalized difference vegetation index drivers of scrub typhus incidence in Shandong Province based on a 16-year time-frequency analysis |
| title_short | Meteorological factors and normalized difference vegetation index drivers of scrub typhus incidence in Shandong Province based on a 16-year time-frequency analysis |
| title_sort | meteorological factors and normalized difference vegetation index drivers of scrub typhus incidence in shandong province based on a 16 year time frequency analysis |
| topic | Scrub typhus Wavelet analysis Meteorological factors NDVI Interactions |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-025-21987-y |
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