Climate extremes, average conditions and temperature variability as drivers of dengue epidemics in a temperate city of Argentina
Introduction: Climate change represents one of the greatest health threats of our time, and is associated with the expansion of mosquito-borne viruses globally. Argentina has experienced long-term changes in precipitation and temperature, enhancing the climatic suitability for dengue transmission. T...
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Elsevier
2025-03-01
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| Series: | The Journal of Climate Change and Health |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667278225000112 |
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| author | María S. López Miguel A. Lovino Andrea A. Gómez Santiago T. Rodríguez Ainelen L. Radosevich Gabriela V. Müller Elizabet L. Estallo |
| author_facet | María S. López Miguel A. Lovino Andrea A. Gómez Santiago T. Rodríguez Ainelen L. Radosevich Gabriela V. Müller Elizabet L. Estallo |
| author_sort | María S. López |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Introduction: Climate change represents one of the greatest health threats of our time, and is associated with the expansion of mosquito-borne viruses globally. Argentina has experienced long-term changes in precipitation and temperature, enhancing the climatic suitability for dengue transmission. This study assesses climate extremes, average climate conditions, and temperature variability and their relationships with dengue epidemics in a city with temperate climate in central Argentina. Methods: A set of descriptive indices for temperature and precipitation extremes was analyzed to detect long-term changes and variability in climate extremes from 1940 to 2022, as well as temperature variability during major dengue epidemics in 2020 and 2023. To evaluate the influence of the climate on epidemics, time series of cases and climatic variables were analyzed, generalized linear models were applied, and a mathematical model was used to estimate the number of days required for the transmission of the dengue virus. Results: Some climate extreme indices may influence the increase in dengue cases in the city of Reconquista. Average temperature and precipitation were noted to shape the seasonality and temporality (onset, development, and end) of the dengue epidemics. Temperature variability has impacted the extrinsic incubation period, thereby shaping the magnitude and duration of the dengue epidemics. Conclusion: The analysis of long-term climate data reveals that rising temperatures and some associated extremes are significant factors driving this trend, with implications for public health preparedness and response. We emphasize the necessity for enhancing monitoring systems, encompassing epidemiological, climatic, and vector variables, to mitigate the impacts of future epidemics. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-dafcc80a72724af08a88e28ceeb48586 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2667-2782 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | The Journal of Climate Change and Health |
| spelling | doaj-art-dafcc80a72724af08a88e28ceeb485862025-08-20T02:28:19ZengElsevierThe Journal of Climate Change and Health2667-27822025-03-012210042610.1016/j.joclim.2025.100426Climate extremes, average conditions and temperature variability as drivers of dengue epidemics in a temperate city of ArgentinaMaría S. López0Miguel A. Lovino1Andrea A. Gómez2Santiago T. Rodríguez3Ainelen L. Radosevich4Gabriela V. Müller5Elizabet L. Estallo6Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Argentina; Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climático (CEVARCAM), Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Hídricas, Universidad Nacional del Litoral, Ciudad Universitaria, Paraje El Pozo, Santa Fe, Argentina; Corresponding author.Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Argentina; Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climático (CEVARCAM), Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Hídricas, Universidad Nacional del Litoral, Ciudad Universitaria, Paraje El Pozo, Santa Fe, ArgentinaConsejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Argentina; Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climático (CEVARCAM), Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Hídricas, Universidad Nacional del Litoral, Ciudad Universitaria, Paraje El Pozo, Santa Fe, ArgentinaCentro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climático (CEVARCAM), Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Hídricas, Universidad Nacional del Litoral, Ciudad Universitaria, Paraje El Pozo, Santa Fe, Argentina; Facultad de Humanidades y Ciencias, Universidad Nacional del Litoral, Ciudad Universitaria, Paraje El Pozo, Santa Fe, ArgentinaFacultad de Bioquímica y Ciencias Biológicas, Universidad Nacional del Litoral, Ciudad Universitaria, Paraje El Pozo, Santa Fe, ArgentinaConsejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Argentina; Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climático (CEVARCAM), Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Hídricas, Universidad Nacional del Litoral, Ciudad Universitaria, Paraje El Pozo, Santa Fe, ArgentinaConsejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Argentina; Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales, Centro de Investigaciones Entomológicas de Córdoba, Córdoba Argentina; Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Córdoba, ArgentinaIntroduction: Climate change represents one of the greatest health threats of our time, and is associated with the expansion of mosquito-borne viruses globally. Argentina has experienced long-term changes in precipitation and temperature, enhancing the climatic suitability for dengue transmission. This study assesses climate extremes, average climate conditions, and temperature variability and their relationships with dengue epidemics in a city with temperate climate in central Argentina. Methods: A set of descriptive indices for temperature and precipitation extremes was analyzed to detect long-term changes and variability in climate extremes from 1940 to 2022, as well as temperature variability during major dengue epidemics in 2020 and 2023. To evaluate the influence of the climate on epidemics, time series of cases and climatic variables were analyzed, generalized linear models were applied, and a mathematical model was used to estimate the number of days required for the transmission of the dengue virus. Results: Some climate extreme indices may influence the increase in dengue cases in the city of Reconquista. Average temperature and precipitation were noted to shape the seasonality and temporality (onset, development, and end) of the dengue epidemics. Temperature variability has impacted the extrinsic incubation period, thereby shaping the magnitude and duration of the dengue epidemics. Conclusion: The analysis of long-term climate data reveals that rising temperatures and some associated extremes are significant factors driving this trend, with implications for public health preparedness and response. We emphasize the necessity for enhancing monitoring systems, encompassing epidemiological, climatic, and vector variables, to mitigate the impacts of future epidemics.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667278225000112DengueTransmissionClimateClimate extremesEpidemicsMonitoring |
| spellingShingle | María S. López Miguel A. Lovino Andrea A. Gómez Santiago T. Rodríguez Ainelen L. Radosevich Gabriela V. Müller Elizabet L. Estallo Climate extremes, average conditions and temperature variability as drivers of dengue epidemics in a temperate city of Argentina The Journal of Climate Change and Health Dengue Transmission Climate Climate extremes Epidemics Monitoring |
| title | Climate extremes, average conditions and temperature variability as drivers of dengue epidemics in a temperate city of Argentina |
| title_full | Climate extremes, average conditions and temperature variability as drivers of dengue epidemics in a temperate city of Argentina |
| title_fullStr | Climate extremes, average conditions and temperature variability as drivers of dengue epidemics in a temperate city of Argentina |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate extremes, average conditions and temperature variability as drivers of dengue epidemics in a temperate city of Argentina |
| title_short | Climate extremes, average conditions and temperature variability as drivers of dengue epidemics in a temperate city of Argentina |
| title_sort | climate extremes average conditions and temperature variability as drivers of dengue epidemics in a temperate city of argentina |
| topic | Dengue Transmission Climate Climate extremes Epidemics Monitoring |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667278225000112 |
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