Spatiotemporal Analysis of Drought and Its Driving Factors in the Yellow River Basin Based on a Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index
As a natural disaster, drought can endanger global ecology, socio-economic systems, and sustainable development. To address sudden droughts in the future, assess drought disasters, and propose mitigation measures, in-depth research on the spatiotemporal variations in and driving factors of meteorolo...
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2025-01-01
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| author | Chong Wei Danning Su Dongbao Zhao Yixuan Li Junwei He Zhiguo Wang Lianhai Cao Huicong Jia |
| author_facet | Chong Wei Danning Su Dongbao Zhao Yixuan Li Junwei He Zhiguo Wang Lianhai Cao Huicong Jia |
| author_sort | Chong Wei |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | As a natural disaster, drought can endanger global ecology, socio-economic systems, and sustainable development. To address sudden droughts in the future, assess drought disasters, and propose mitigation measures, in-depth research on the spatiotemporal variations in and driving factors of meteorological drought is essential. To study drought in the Yellow River Basin, we calculated the multi-scale Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), derived from monthly meteorological data recorded at weather stations from 1968 to 2019. We examined the features of drought and its driving factors using the trend-free pre-whitening Mann–Kendall (TFPW-MK) test and Sen’s slope estimator, as well as a drought frequency analysis, center of gravity migration model, standard deviation ellipse model, and geographic detector. Our analysis shows that (1) from 1968 to 2019, the Yellow River Basin exhibited a shift from aridity to increased moisture on an annual basis, with the smallest SPEI of −1.47 in 2002 indicating a moderate drought; SPEI3 showed a growing tendency in all seasons, particularly in winter (0.00388/year), followed by spring (0.00214/year), summer (0.00232/year), and fall (0.00196/year). The SPEI3 exhibited higher fluctuations in frequency compared to the annual-scale SPEI12; (2) in terms of spatial variability, there was no significant change in drought conditions at any scale, with the probability of a drought event being greater in the eastern and northwestern portions of the watershed. The epicenter of the drought exhibited a tendency to migrate southwestward; (3) among the seven driving factors, land use and night lighting were the dominant factors affecting drought conditions, with driving force values of 0.75 and 0.63, respectively. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-da4e60c46d6244c29d0bb095ac1de50e |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj-art-da4e60c46d6244c29d0bb095ac1de50e2025-08-20T02:44:36ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332025-01-0116214510.3390/atmos16020145Spatiotemporal Analysis of Drought and Its Driving Factors in the Yellow River Basin Based on a Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration IndexChong Wei0Danning Su1Dongbao Zhao2Yixuan Li3Junwei He4Zhiguo Wang5Lianhai Cao6Huicong Jia7College of Surveying and Geo-informatics, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, ChinaCollege of Surveying and Geo-informatics, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, ChinaCollege of Surveying and Geo-informatics, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, ChinaCollege of Surveying and Geo-informatics, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, ChinaCollege of Surveying and Geo-informatics, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, ChinaCollege of Surveying and Geo-informatics, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, ChinaCollege of Surveying and Geo-informatics, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, ChinaInternational Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals, Beijing 100094, ChinaAs a natural disaster, drought can endanger global ecology, socio-economic systems, and sustainable development. To address sudden droughts in the future, assess drought disasters, and propose mitigation measures, in-depth research on the spatiotemporal variations in and driving factors of meteorological drought is essential. To study drought in the Yellow River Basin, we calculated the multi-scale Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), derived from monthly meteorological data recorded at weather stations from 1968 to 2019. We examined the features of drought and its driving factors using the trend-free pre-whitening Mann–Kendall (TFPW-MK) test and Sen’s slope estimator, as well as a drought frequency analysis, center of gravity migration model, standard deviation ellipse model, and geographic detector. Our analysis shows that (1) from 1968 to 2019, the Yellow River Basin exhibited a shift from aridity to increased moisture on an annual basis, with the smallest SPEI of −1.47 in 2002 indicating a moderate drought; SPEI3 showed a growing tendency in all seasons, particularly in winter (0.00388/year), followed by spring (0.00214/year), summer (0.00232/year), and fall (0.00196/year). The SPEI3 exhibited higher fluctuations in frequency compared to the annual-scale SPEI12; (2) in terms of spatial variability, there was no significant change in drought conditions at any scale, with the probability of a drought event being greater in the eastern and northwestern portions of the watershed. The epicenter of the drought exhibited a tendency to migrate southwestward; (3) among the seven driving factors, land use and night lighting were the dominant factors affecting drought conditions, with driving force values of 0.75 and 0.63, respectively.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/16/2/145drought characteristicsdriving factorsstandardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI)spatial and temporal variabilitygeodetector |
| spellingShingle | Chong Wei Danning Su Dongbao Zhao Yixuan Li Junwei He Zhiguo Wang Lianhai Cao Huicong Jia Spatiotemporal Analysis of Drought and Its Driving Factors in the Yellow River Basin Based on a Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index Atmosphere drought characteristics driving factors standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) spatial and temporal variability geodetector |
| title | Spatiotemporal Analysis of Drought and Its Driving Factors in the Yellow River Basin Based on a Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index |
| title_full | Spatiotemporal Analysis of Drought and Its Driving Factors in the Yellow River Basin Based on a Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index |
| title_fullStr | Spatiotemporal Analysis of Drought and Its Driving Factors in the Yellow River Basin Based on a Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index |
| title_full_unstemmed | Spatiotemporal Analysis of Drought and Its Driving Factors in the Yellow River Basin Based on a Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index |
| title_short | Spatiotemporal Analysis of Drought and Its Driving Factors in the Yellow River Basin Based on a Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index |
| title_sort | spatiotemporal analysis of drought and its driving factors in the yellow river basin based on a standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index |
| topic | drought characteristics driving factors standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) spatial and temporal variability geodetector |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/16/2/145 |
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