The Influence of Bank Loans and Deposits on Ecuador’s Economic Growth: A Cointegration Analysis

This study examines the relationship between banking sector development (credit and deposits) and economic growth in Ecuador, using quarterly data for the period 2000–2022. An ARDL approach with Bound Test cointegration is employed, incorporating structural breaks using the Bai–Perron test and contr...

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Main Authors: Freddy Naula, Cristian Zamora, Kevin Gomez
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-05-01
Series:International Journal of Financial Studies
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7072/13/2/76
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author Freddy Naula
Cristian Zamora
Kevin Gomez
author_facet Freddy Naula
Cristian Zamora
Kevin Gomez
author_sort Freddy Naula
collection DOAJ
description This study examines the relationship between banking sector development (credit and deposits) and economic growth in Ecuador, using quarterly data for the period 2000–2022. An ARDL approach with Bound Test cointegration is employed, incorporating structural breaks using the Bai–Perron test and controlling for macroeconomic shocks. In addition, time transformation methodologies are applied to harmonize the frequency of the series: the monthlyization of GDP is performed using the Chow-Lin method, and the imputation of missing unemployment data using the Kalman filter. The results reveal a significant long-run elasticity between bank deposits and GDP (0.45%), while credits do not present a statistically significant effect, possibly due to high delinquency and institutional weakness. Granger causality tests confirm a unidirectional relationship between banking variables to economic growth. These findings highlight the importance of strengthening financial supervision and improving institutional quality to enhance the effect of bank intermediation. The study provides robust and contextualized empirical evidence relevant to resource-dependent economies with concentrated financial systems, contributing to the debate on the relationship between finance and growth in developing countries.
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spelling doaj-art-da05f122ed094617b5dfd4213e2ad2ec2025-08-20T02:21:10ZengMDPI AGInternational Journal of Financial Studies2227-70722025-05-011327610.3390/ijfs13020076The Influence of Bank Loans and Deposits on Ecuador’s Economic Growth: A Cointegration AnalysisFreddy Naula0Cristian Zamora1Kevin Gomez2Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Administrativas, Universidad de Cuenca, Cuenca 010203, EcuadorFacultad de Ciencias Químicas, Universidad de Cuenca, Cuenca 010203, EcuadorFacultad de Ciencias Económicas y Administrativas, Universidad de Cuenca, Cuenca 010203, EcuadorThis study examines the relationship between banking sector development (credit and deposits) and economic growth in Ecuador, using quarterly data for the period 2000–2022. An ARDL approach with Bound Test cointegration is employed, incorporating structural breaks using the Bai–Perron test and controlling for macroeconomic shocks. In addition, time transformation methodologies are applied to harmonize the frequency of the series: the monthlyization of GDP is performed using the Chow-Lin method, and the imputation of missing unemployment data using the Kalman filter. The results reveal a significant long-run elasticity between bank deposits and GDP (0.45%), while credits do not present a statistically significant effect, possibly due to high delinquency and institutional weakness. Granger causality tests confirm a unidirectional relationship between banking variables to economic growth. These findings highlight the importance of strengthening financial supervision and improving institutional quality to enhance the effect of bank intermediation. The study provides robust and contextualized empirical evidence relevant to resource-dependent economies with concentrated financial systems, contributing to the debate on the relationship between finance and growth in developing countries.https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7072/13/2/76banking developmenteconomic growthlendingdeposits
spellingShingle Freddy Naula
Cristian Zamora
Kevin Gomez
The Influence of Bank Loans and Deposits on Ecuador’s Economic Growth: A Cointegration Analysis
International Journal of Financial Studies
banking development
economic growth
lending
deposits
title The Influence of Bank Loans and Deposits on Ecuador’s Economic Growth: A Cointegration Analysis
title_full The Influence of Bank Loans and Deposits on Ecuador’s Economic Growth: A Cointegration Analysis
title_fullStr The Influence of Bank Loans and Deposits on Ecuador’s Economic Growth: A Cointegration Analysis
title_full_unstemmed The Influence of Bank Loans and Deposits on Ecuador’s Economic Growth: A Cointegration Analysis
title_short The Influence of Bank Loans and Deposits on Ecuador’s Economic Growth: A Cointegration Analysis
title_sort influence of bank loans and deposits on ecuador s economic growth a cointegration analysis
topic banking development
economic growth
lending
deposits
url https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7072/13/2/76
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