Human-induced climate change increased 2021–2022 drought severity in horn of Africa
From October 2020 to early 2023, Eastern Africa experienced five consecutive failed (SPEI -2.6) rainy seasons, resulting in the worst drought in 40 years. This led to harvest failures, livestock losses, water scarcity, and conflicts, leaving approximately 4.35 million people in need of humanitarian...
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Elsevier
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Weather and Climate Extremes |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094725000039 |
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| author | Joyce Kimutai Clair Barnes Mariam Zachariah Sjoukje Y. Philip Sarah F. Kew Izidine Pinto Piotr Wolski Gerbrand Koren Gabriel Vecchi Wenchang Yang Sihan Li Maja Vahlberg Roop Singh Dorothy Heinrich Julie Arrighi Carolina Pereira Marghidan Lisa Thalheimer Cheikh Kane Emmanuel Raju Friederike E.L. Otto |
| author_facet | Joyce Kimutai Clair Barnes Mariam Zachariah Sjoukje Y. Philip Sarah F. Kew Izidine Pinto Piotr Wolski Gerbrand Koren Gabriel Vecchi Wenchang Yang Sihan Li Maja Vahlberg Roop Singh Dorothy Heinrich Julie Arrighi Carolina Pereira Marghidan Lisa Thalheimer Cheikh Kane Emmanuel Raju Friederike E.L. Otto |
| author_sort | Joyce Kimutai |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | From October 2020 to early 2023, Eastern Africa experienced five consecutive failed (SPEI -2.6) rainy seasons, resulting in the worst drought in 40 years. This led to harvest failures, livestock losses, water scarcity, and conflicts, leaving approximately 4.35 million people in need of humanitarian aid. To understand the role of human-induced climate change in the drought, we analysed rainfall trends and the combined effect of rainfall deficit with high temperatures in the Southern Horn of Africa covering parts of southern Ethiopia, southern Somalia, and eastern Kenya. We employed various climate models and observations to assess changes in 24-month rainfall (2021–2022), and seasonal rainfall; both the (March-April-May, MAM) ‘long rains’ and (October-November-December, OND) ‘short rains’ in 2022. We also contextualised the event in terms of vulnerability and exposure to understand how these elements influenced the magnitude of the impacts. Our analysis shows that anthropogenic influence on the combined effects of low rainfall and high evapotranspiration caused by higher temperatures made the drought exceptional, leading to major crop and pasture losses and water shortages. Our results also show a decline in rainfall during MAM and an upward trend during OND, which is attributable to climate change. Despite the wetting trend in OND season, the drought years concluded with successive La Niña conditions, typically linked with below-average rainfall in the region during that season. We do not find a trend in the 24-month precipitation. The assessment on vulnerability and exposure highlights the need for enhanced preparedness of government drought management systems and international aid infrastructure for future severe and prolonged droughts. The study's findings, combined with climate projections that indicate increased heavy precipitation in the region, underscore the pressing necessity for robust adaptation strategies that can address both wet and dry extremes. The impacts of climate change in Eastern Africa necessitate investments in adaptive measures and resilience building that can evolve with emerging climate signals. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d9e3bd014b984a8fb8198ef6d35741fd |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2212-0947 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Weather and Climate Extremes |
| spelling | doaj-art-d9e3bd014b984a8fb8198ef6d35741fd2025-08-20T03:05:07ZengElsevierWeather and Climate Extremes2212-09472025-03-014710074510.1016/j.wace.2025.100745Human-induced climate change increased 2021–2022 drought severity in horn of AfricaJoyce Kimutai0Clair Barnes1Mariam Zachariah2Sjoukje Y. Philip3Sarah F. Kew4Izidine Pinto5Piotr Wolski6Gerbrand Koren7Gabriel Vecchi8Wenchang Yang9Sihan Li10Maja Vahlberg11Roop Singh12Dorothy Heinrich13Julie Arrighi14Carolina Pereira Marghidan15Lisa Thalheimer16Cheikh Kane17Emmanuel Raju18Friederike E.L. Otto19Grantham Institute, Imperial College, London, UK; Kenya Meteorological Department, Nairobi, Kenya; Corresponding author. Grantham Institute, Imperial College, London, UKGrantham Institute, Imperial College, London, UKGrantham Institute, Imperial College, London, UKRoyal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the NetherlandsRoyal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the NetherlandsRoyal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the NetherlandsClimate System Analysis Group, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South AfricaCopernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the NetherlandsDepartment of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, 08544, USA; High Meadows, Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, 08544, USADepartment of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, 08544, USADepartment of Geography, University of Sheffield, UKRed Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, the NetherlandsRed Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, the NetherlandsRed Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, the NetherlandsRed Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, the Netherlands; Global Disaster Preparedness Center, Washington DC, USA; Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, Enschede, the NetherlandsRed Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, the Netherlands; Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, Enschede, the NetherlandsUnited Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security, Bonn, Germany; Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, 08544, USARed Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, the Netherlands; Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, U01000/99AA01, Marseille, FranceDepartment of Public Health, Global Health Section & Copenhagen Centre for Disaster Research, University of Copenhagen, Denmark; African Centre for Disaster Studies, North-West University, South AfricaGrantham Institute, Imperial College, London, UKFrom October 2020 to early 2023, Eastern Africa experienced five consecutive failed (SPEI -2.6) rainy seasons, resulting in the worst drought in 40 years. This led to harvest failures, livestock losses, water scarcity, and conflicts, leaving approximately 4.35 million people in need of humanitarian aid. To understand the role of human-induced climate change in the drought, we analysed rainfall trends and the combined effect of rainfall deficit with high temperatures in the Southern Horn of Africa covering parts of southern Ethiopia, southern Somalia, and eastern Kenya. We employed various climate models and observations to assess changes in 24-month rainfall (2021–2022), and seasonal rainfall; both the (March-April-May, MAM) ‘long rains’ and (October-November-December, OND) ‘short rains’ in 2022. We also contextualised the event in terms of vulnerability and exposure to understand how these elements influenced the magnitude of the impacts. Our analysis shows that anthropogenic influence on the combined effects of low rainfall and high evapotranspiration caused by higher temperatures made the drought exceptional, leading to major crop and pasture losses and water shortages. Our results also show a decline in rainfall during MAM and an upward trend during OND, which is attributable to climate change. Despite the wetting trend in OND season, the drought years concluded with successive La Niña conditions, typically linked with below-average rainfall in the region during that season. We do not find a trend in the 24-month precipitation. The assessment on vulnerability and exposure highlights the need for enhanced preparedness of government drought management systems and international aid infrastructure for future severe and prolonged droughts. The study's findings, combined with climate projections that indicate increased heavy precipitation in the region, underscore the pressing necessity for robust adaptation strategies that can address both wet and dry extremes. The impacts of climate change in Eastern Africa necessitate investments in adaptive measures and resilience building that can evolve with emerging climate signals.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094725000039Climate changeAttributionDroughtHorn of Africa |
| spellingShingle | Joyce Kimutai Clair Barnes Mariam Zachariah Sjoukje Y. Philip Sarah F. Kew Izidine Pinto Piotr Wolski Gerbrand Koren Gabriel Vecchi Wenchang Yang Sihan Li Maja Vahlberg Roop Singh Dorothy Heinrich Julie Arrighi Carolina Pereira Marghidan Lisa Thalheimer Cheikh Kane Emmanuel Raju Friederike E.L. Otto Human-induced climate change increased 2021–2022 drought severity in horn of Africa Weather and Climate Extremes Climate change Attribution Drought Horn of Africa |
| title | Human-induced climate change increased 2021–2022 drought severity in horn of Africa |
| title_full | Human-induced climate change increased 2021–2022 drought severity in horn of Africa |
| title_fullStr | Human-induced climate change increased 2021–2022 drought severity in horn of Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | Human-induced climate change increased 2021–2022 drought severity in horn of Africa |
| title_short | Human-induced climate change increased 2021–2022 drought severity in horn of Africa |
| title_sort | human induced climate change increased 2021 2022 drought severity in horn of africa |
| topic | Climate change Attribution Drought Horn of Africa |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094725000039 |
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