Multi-scenario land use change simulation and spatial-temporal evolution of carbon storage in the Yangtze River Delta region based on the PLUS-InVEST model.

Influenced by urban expansion, population growth, and various socio-economic activities, land use in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) area has undergone prominent changes. Modifications in land use have resulted in adjustments to ecological structures, leading to subsequent fluctuations in carbon stora...

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Main Authors: Jingru Zhou, Verner Carl Johnson, Jingchao Shi, Mou Leong Tan, Fei Zhang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2025-01-01
Series:PLoS ONE
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0316255
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author Jingru Zhou
Verner Carl Johnson
Jingchao Shi
Mou Leong Tan
Fei Zhang
author_facet Jingru Zhou
Verner Carl Johnson
Jingchao Shi
Mou Leong Tan
Fei Zhang
author_sort Jingru Zhou
collection DOAJ
description Influenced by urban expansion, population growth, and various socio-economic activities, land use in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) area has undergone prominent changes. Modifications in land use have resulted in adjustments to ecological structures, leading to subsequent fluctuations in carbon storage. This study focuses on YRD region and analyzes the characteristics of land use changes in the area using land use data from 2000 to 2020, with a 10-year interval. Utilizing InVEST Model's Carbon Storage module in combination with PLUS model (patch-generating land use simulation), we simulated and projected future land use patterns and carbon storage across YRD region under five scenarios including natural development (ND), urban development (UD), ecological protection (EP), cropland protection (CP), and balanced development (BD). Upon comparing carbon storage levels predicted for 2030 under the five scenarios with those in 2020, carbon stocks decrease in the initial four scenarios and then increase in the fifth scenario. In the initial four declining scenarios, CP scenario had the least reduction in carbon storage, followed by EP scenario. The implementation of policies aimed at safeguarding cropland and preserving ecological integrity can efficaciously curtail the expansion of developed land into woodland and cropland, enhance the structure of land use, and mitigate the loss of carbon storage.
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publishDate 2025-01-01
publisher Public Library of Science (PLoS)
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spelling doaj-art-d93dabfe57054b5c84c5d3f8f70033562025-08-20T03:52:29ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032025-01-01201e031625510.1371/journal.pone.0316255Multi-scenario land use change simulation and spatial-temporal evolution of carbon storage in the Yangtze River Delta region based on the PLUS-InVEST model.Jingru ZhouVerner Carl JohnsonJingchao ShiMou Leong TanFei ZhangInfluenced by urban expansion, population growth, and various socio-economic activities, land use in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) area has undergone prominent changes. Modifications in land use have resulted in adjustments to ecological structures, leading to subsequent fluctuations in carbon storage. This study focuses on YRD region and analyzes the characteristics of land use changes in the area using land use data from 2000 to 2020, with a 10-year interval. Utilizing InVEST Model's Carbon Storage module in combination with PLUS model (patch-generating land use simulation), we simulated and projected future land use patterns and carbon storage across YRD region under five scenarios including natural development (ND), urban development (UD), ecological protection (EP), cropland protection (CP), and balanced development (BD). Upon comparing carbon storage levels predicted for 2030 under the five scenarios with those in 2020, carbon stocks decrease in the initial four scenarios and then increase in the fifth scenario. In the initial four declining scenarios, CP scenario had the least reduction in carbon storage, followed by EP scenario. The implementation of policies aimed at safeguarding cropland and preserving ecological integrity can efficaciously curtail the expansion of developed land into woodland and cropland, enhance the structure of land use, and mitigate the loss of carbon storage.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0316255
spellingShingle Jingru Zhou
Verner Carl Johnson
Jingchao Shi
Mou Leong Tan
Fei Zhang
Multi-scenario land use change simulation and spatial-temporal evolution of carbon storage in the Yangtze River Delta region based on the PLUS-InVEST model.
PLoS ONE
title Multi-scenario land use change simulation and spatial-temporal evolution of carbon storage in the Yangtze River Delta region based on the PLUS-InVEST model.
title_full Multi-scenario land use change simulation and spatial-temporal evolution of carbon storage in the Yangtze River Delta region based on the PLUS-InVEST model.
title_fullStr Multi-scenario land use change simulation and spatial-temporal evolution of carbon storage in the Yangtze River Delta region based on the PLUS-InVEST model.
title_full_unstemmed Multi-scenario land use change simulation and spatial-temporal evolution of carbon storage in the Yangtze River Delta region based on the PLUS-InVEST model.
title_short Multi-scenario land use change simulation and spatial-temporal evolution of carbon storage in the Yangtze River Delta region based on the PLUS-InVEST model.
title_sort multi scenario land use change simulation and spatial temporal evolution of carbon storage in the yangtze river delta region based on the plus invest model
url https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0316255
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