Quantitative analysis and mathematic modeling of the global outbreak of COVID-19

The coronavirus pandemic is the biggest in the past 100 years, affected over 200 countries and killed over 300 thousand people. To better understand the epidemics in different areas, the progress percentage was generated in this study by dividing everyday total confirmed case number by the up-to-da...

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Main Authors: Yanyan Jiang, Xuefeng Jiang, Wenjun Tong, Jingming Zhou
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: The Journal of Infection in Developing Countries 2020-10-01
Series:Journal of Infection in Developing Countries
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Online Access:https://jidc.org/index.php/journal/article/view/13150
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author Yanyan Jiang
Xuefeng Jiang
Wenjun Tong
Jingming Zhou
author_facet Yanyan Jiang
Xuefeng Jiang
Wenjun Tong
Jingming Zhou
author_sort Yanyan Jiang
collection DOAJ
description The coronavirus pandemic is the biggest in the past 100 years, affected over 200 countries and killed over 300 thousand people. To better understand the epidemics in different areas, the progress percentage was generated in this study by dividing everyday total confirmed case number by the up-to-date total case number, so data obtained from different countries and territories can be put together and compared directly regardless of the large difference in the magnitude of numbers. The global outbreak data were analyzed and categorized into 4 groups based on different epidemic curve stages. The grouping pattern suggests that the geographical position may not play a critical role in the progress of COVID-19 epidemic. In this report, we also used a mathematic model to predict the progress of COVID-19 outbreak in UK, USA and Canada in Group 3, providing valuable information for assessing the risk in these countries and the timing of reopening business.
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spelling doaj-art-d92bd628b4da48068d49256a0b62681d2025-08-20T02:14:16ZengThe Journal of Infection in Developing CountriesJournal of Infection in Developing Countries1972-26802020-10-01141010.3855/jidc.13150Quantitative analysis and mathematic modeling of the global outbreak of COVID-19Yanyan Jiang0Xuefeng Jiang1Wenjun Tong2Jingming Zhou3Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Biomedical Functional Materials, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Biomedical Materials, School of Chemistry and Materials Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, ChinaJiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Biomedical Functional Materials, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Biomedical Materials, School of Chemistry and Materials Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, ChinaJiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Biomedical Functional Materials, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Biomedical Materials, School of Chemistry and Materials Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, ChinaJingling High School Hexi Campus, Nanjing, China The coronavirus pandemic is the biggest in the past 100 years, affected over 200 countries and killed over 300 thousand people. To better understand the epidemics in different areas, the progress percentage was generated in this study by dividing everyday total confirmed case number by the up-to-date total case number, so data obtained from different countries and territories can be put together and compared directly regardless of the large difference in the magnitude of numbers. The global outbreak data were analyzed and categorized into 4 groups based on different epidemic curve stages. The grouping pattern suggests that the geographical position may not play a critical role in the progress of COVID-19 epidemic. In this report, we also used a mathematic model to predict the progress of COVID-19 outbreak in UK, USA and Canada in Group 3, providing valuable information for assessing the risk in these countries and the timing of reopening business. https://jidc.org/index.php/journal/article/view/13150COVID-19epidemicoutbreakprogress percentageprojection
spellingShingle Yanyan Jiang
Xuefeng Jiang
Wenjun Tong
Jingming Zhou
Quantitative analysis and mathematic modeling of the global outbreak of COVID-19
Journal of Infection in Developing Countries
COVID-19
epidemic
outbreak
progress percentage
projection
title Quantitative analysis and mathematic modeling of the global outbreak of COVID-19
title_full Quantitative analysis and mathematic modeling of the global outbreak of COVID-19
title_fullStr Quantitative analysis and mathematic modeling of the global outbreak of COVID-19
title_full_unstemmed Quantitative analysis and mathematic modeling of the global outbreak of COVID-19
title_short Quantitative analysis and mathematic modeling of the global outbreak of COVID-19
title_sort quantitative analysis and mathematic modeling of the global outbreak of covid 19
topic COVID-19
epidemic
outbreak
progress percentage
projection
url https://jidc.org/index.php/journal/article/view/13150
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AT xuefengjiang quantitativeanalysisandmathematicmodelingoftheglobaloutbreakofcovid19
AT wenjuntong quantitativeanalysisandmathematicmodelingoftheglobaloutbreakofcovid19
AT jingmingzhou quantitativeanalysisandmathematicmodelingoftheglobaloutbreakofcovid19