Wildfires will intensify in the wildland-urban interface under near-term warming
Abstract Dangerous fire weather is increasing under climate change, but there is limited knowledge of how this will affect fire intensity, a critical determinant of the socioecological effects of wildfire. Here, we model relationships between satellite observations of fire radiative power (FRP) and...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02475-y |
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| author | Calum X. Cunningham John T. Abatzoglou Todd M. Ellis Grant J. Williamson David M. J. S. Bowman |
| author_facet | Calum X. Cunningham John T. Abatzoglou Todd M. Ellis Grant J. Williamson David M. J. S. Bowman |
| author_sort | Calum X. Cunningham |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Dangerous fire weather is increasing under climate change, but there is limited knowledge of how this will affect fire intensity, a critical determinant of the socioecological effects of wildfire. Here, we model relationships between satellite observations of fire radiative power (FRP) and contemporaneous fire weather index, and then we project how FRP is likely to change under near-term warming scenarios. The models project widespread growth in FRP, with increases expected across 88% of fire-prone areas worldwide under 1.5 °C warming. Projected increases in FRP were highest in the Mediterranean biome and Temperate Conifer Forest biome, and increases were twice as large under 2 °C warming compared to 1.5 °C. Disaster-prone areas of the wildland-urban interface saw an average of 3.6 times greater projected increases than non-disaster-prone areas, suggesting wildfire impacts will intensify most in regions already vulnerable to dangerous wildfires. These findings emphasise the urgent need to anticipate changes to fire behaviour and proactively manage wildland-urban ecosystems to reduce future fire intensity. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d91e8173f3fc4de88681fec7008e9e71 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2662-4435 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communications Earth & Environment |
| spelling | doaj-art-d91e8173f3fc4de88681fec7008e9e712025-08-20T03:42:10ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Earth & Environment2662-44352025-07-01611910.1038/s43247-025-02475-yWildfires will intensify in the wildland-urban interface under near-term warmingCalum X. Cunningham0John T. Abatzoglou1Todd M. Ellis2Grant J. Williamson3David M. J. S. Bowman4Fire Centre, School of Natural Sciences, University of TasmaniaDepartment of Management of Complex Systems, University of California, MercedFire Centre, School of Natural Sciences, University of TasmaniaFire Centre, School of Natural Sciences, University of TasmaniaFire Centre, School of Natural Sciences, University of TasmaniaAbstract Dangerous fire weather is increasing under climate change, but there is limited knowledge of how this will affect fire intensity, a critical determinant of the socioecological effects of wildfire. Here, we model relationships between satellite observations of fire radiative power (FRP) and contemporaneous fire weather index, and then we project how FRP is likely to change under near-term warming scenarios. The models project widespread growth in FRP, with increases expected across 88% of fire-prone areas worldwide under 1.5 °C warming. Projected increases in FRP were highest in the Mediterranean biome and Temperate Conifer Forest biome, and increases were twice as large under 2 °C warming compared to 1.5 °C. Disaster-prone areas of the wildland-urban interface saw an average of 3.6 times greater projected increases than non-disaster-prone areas, suggesting wildfire impacts will intensify most in regions already vulnerable to dangerous wildfires. These findings emphasise the urgent need to anticipate changes to fire behaviour and proactively manage wildland-urban ecosystems to reduce future fire intensity.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02475-y |
| spellingShingle | Calum X. Cunningham John T. Abatzoglou Todd M. Ellis Grant J. Williamson David M. J. S. Bowman Wildfires will intensify in the wildland-urban interface under near-term warming Communications Earth & Environment |
| title | Wildfires will intensify in the wildland-urban interface under near-term warming |
| title_full | Wildfires will intensify in the wildland-urban interface under near-term warming |
| title_fullStr | Wildfires will intensify in the wildland-urban interface under near-term warming |
| title_full_unstemmed | Wildfires will intensify in the wildland-urban interface under near-term warming |
| title_short | Wildfires will intensify in the wildland-urban interface under near-term warming |
| title_sort | wildfires will intensify in the wildland urban interface under near term warming |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02475-y |
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