Projecting future migration with Bayesian hierarchical gravity models of migration: an application to Africa
In this paper, I present and discuss a novel approach to parameterize a gravity model of migration using Bayesian hierarchical models with random intercepts that are free to vary by country of origin, destination, and directed origin-destination country pairs. I then utilize this model to project tr...
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Climate |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2024.1384295/full |
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| author | Fabien Cottier |
| author_facet | Fabien Cottier |
| author_sort | Fabien Cottier |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In this paper, I present and discuss a novel approach to parameterize a gravity model of migration using Bayesian hierarchical models with random intercepts that are free to vary by country of origin, destination, and directed origin-destination country pairs. I then utilize this model to project transboundary migration flows between African countries to the horizon 2050. To do so, I use data on projected future crop yields and water availability from the ISIMIP2b scenarios in combination with projections on future economic and demographic trends from the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The results indicate that over the period 2010–2050 between 8 to 17 millions people are projected to migrate internationally on the African continent. Yet, only a small portion of these migrants will be induced to move because of climate change. To the contrary, comparisons between SSPs scenarios suggests that economic development will have a far larger impact on projected level of international migration on the continent than climate change. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d91a2a5e7ca8407eb3f90e8f4c1ec057 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2624-9553 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Climate |
| spelling | doaj-art-d91a2a5e7ca8407eb3f90e8f4c1ec0572025-08-20T02:30:41ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Climate2624-95532024-12-01610.3389/fclim.2024.13842951384295Projecting future migration with Bayesian hierarchical gravity models of migration: an application to AfricaFabien CottierIn this paper, I present and discuss a novel approach to parameterize a gravity model of migration using Bayesian hierarchical models with random intercepts that are free to vary by country of origin, destination, and directed origin-destination country pairs. I then utilize this model to project transboundary migration flows between African countries to the horizon 2050. To do so, I use data on projected future crop yields and water availability from the ISIMIP2b scenarios in combination with projections on future economic and demographic trends from the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The results indicate that over the period 2010–2050 between 8 to 17 millions people are projected to migrate internationally on the African continent. Yet, only a small portion of these migrants will be induced to move because of climate change. To the contrary, comparisons between SSPs scenarios suggests that economic development will have a far larger impact on projected level of international migration on the continent than climate change.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2024.1384295/fullclimate changemigrationinternational migrationBayesian hierarchical modelAfrica |
| spellingShingle | Fabien Cottier Projecting future migration with Bayesian hierarchical gravity models of migration: an application to Africa Frontiers in Climate climate change migration international migration Bayesian hierarchical model Africa |
| title | Projecting future migration with Bayesian hierarchical gravity models of migration: an application to Africa |
| title_full | Projecting future migration with Bayesian hierarchical gravity models of migration: an application to Africa |
| title_fullStr | Projecting future migration with Bayesian hierarchical gravity models of migration: an application to Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projecting future migration with Bayesian hierarchical gravity models of migration: an application to Africa |
| title_short | Projecting future migration with Bayesian hierarchical gravity models of migration: an application to Africa |
| title_sort | projecting future migration with bayesian hierarchical gravity models of migration an application to africa |
| topic | climate change migration international migration Bayesian hierarchical model Africa |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2024.1384295/full |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT fabiencottier projectingfuturemigrationwithbayesianhierarchicalgravitymodelsofmigrationanapplicationtoafrica |