The Nile Bargain

The article analyses the serious regional crisis connected with the end of the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile. This project, due to be launched in July 2020, sparks tensions between Ethiopia and Egypt. Both sides are doing their utmost to get international suppo...

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Main Authors: MEZENTSEV Stanislav Vasilevich, TSAREV Pavel Gennadievich
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute for African Studies 2020-09-01
Series:Ученые записки Института Африки Российской академии наук
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Online Access:https://africajournal.ru/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Mezentsev-Nilskij.pdf
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author MEZENTSEV Stanislav Vasilevich
TSAREV Pavel Gennadievich
author_facet MEZENTSEV Stanislav Vasilevich
TSAREV Pavel Gennadievich
author_sort MEZENTSEV Stanislav Vasilevich
collection DOAJ
description The article analyses the serious regional crisis connected with the end of the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile. This project, due to be launched in July 2020, sparks tensions between Ethiopia and Egypt. Both sides are doing their utmost to get international support for their respective positions. Cairo urges not to fill the Dam before settling all the disputed issues. Addis Ababa wants to do it as quickly as possible to make the Dam operational. However, the window of diplomatic opportunities for a consensus is just about to close. Egypt threatens to use military force, and Ethiopia is ready to mobilize one million people to protect the Dam. Who is in the right? Which country is stronger? Could Egypt and Ethiopia really go to war over water? The authors try to answer these questions, analyzing the legislative base of the Nile case, the military potential of both countries and the attitude of the main world actors towards this problem. Comparing available open source data, authors conclude that a war between the two states is almost impossible. What is happening now around the Dam looks more like a big bargain, and its subject is the Egypt’s future chances to remain one of the main regional and continental political and economic players. There are only two ways to delay filling the dam: monetary compensation from Egypt or future destabilization of internal situation in Ethiopia.
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language English
publishDate 2020-09-01
publisher Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute for African Studies
record_format Article
series Ученые записки Института Африки Российской академии наук
spelling doaj-art-d90966e9d5504e7ebecc2c4cd57f64062025-08-20T03:49:42ZengRussian Academy of Sciences, Institute for African StudiesУченые записки Института Африки Российской академии наук2412-57173034-34962020-09-016311213210.31132/2412-5717-2020-52-3-112-132The Nile BargainMEZENTSEV Stanislav Vasilevich0 TSAREV Pavel Gennadievich1PhD (Mil. Sc.), Senior Research Fellow, Institute for African Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences. Russian Federation, 123001, Moscow, Spiridonovka, 30/1; Executive Director of the Coordinating Committee on Economic Cooperation with Africa (AfroCom), email: svs123@mail.ruPostgraduate Student of the Institute of International Relations and World History of Lobachevsky State University, Russian Federation, 603950, Nizhny Novgorod, Gagarina Ave., 23, e-mail: tsarevpg@mail.ruThe article analyses the serious regional crisis connected with the end of the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile. This project, due to be launched in July 2020, sparks tensions between Ethiopia and Egypt. Both sides are doing their utmost to get international support for their respective positions. Cairo urges not to fill the Dam before settling all the disputed issues. Addis Ababa wants to do it as quickly as possible to make the Dam operational. However, the window of diplomatic opportunities for a consensus is just about to close. Egypt threatens to use military force, and Ethiopia is ready to mobilize one million people to protect the Dam. Who is in the right? Which country is stronger? Could Egypt and Ethiopia really go to war over water? The authors try to answer these questions, analyzing the legislative base of the Nile case, the military potential of both countries and the attitude of the main world actors towards this problem. Comparing available open source data, authors conclude that a war between the two states is almost impossible. What is happening now around the Dam looks more like a big bargain, and its subject is the Egypt’s future chances to remain one of the main regional and continental political and economic players. There are only two ways to delay filling the dam: monetary compensation from Egypt or future destabilization of internal situation in Ethiopia.https://africajournal.ru/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Mezentsev-Nilskij.pdfegyptethiopianilegrand ethiopian renaissance dam (gerd)
spellingShingle MEZENTSEV Stanislav Vasilevich
TSAREV Pavel Gennadievich
The Nile Bargain
Ученые записки Института Африки Российской академии наук
egypt
ethiopia
nile
grand ethiopian renaissance dam (gerd)
title The Nile Bargain
title_full The Nile Bargain
title_fullStr The Nile Bargain
title_full_unstemmed The Nile Bargain
title_short The Nile Bargain
title_sort nile bargain
topic egypt
ethiopia
nile
grand ethiopian renaissance dam (gerd)
url https://africajournal.ru/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Mezentsev-Nilskij.pdf
work_keys_str_mv AT mezentsevstanislavvasilevich thenilebargain
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