Observational Constraint on the Contributions of Greenhouse Gas Emission and Anthropogenic Aerosol Removal to Tibetan Plateau Future Warming
Abstract A decline of anthropogenic aerosol (AA) emission is expected worldwide over the coming decades. But the climate effects of aerosol removal and greenhouse gases (GHG) emission at regional scale are poorly distinguished and constrained. Taking the Tibetan Plateau (TP) as an instance, analyses...
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| Format: | Article |
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Wiley
2023-09-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105427 |
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| author | Jie Jiang Tianjun Zhou |
| author_facet | Jie Jiang Tianjun Zhou |
| author_sort | Jie Jiang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract A decline of anthropogenic aerosol (AA) emission is expected worldwide over the coming decades. But the climate effects of aerosol removal and greenhouse gases (GHG) emission at regional scale are poorly distinguished and constrained. Taking the Tibetan Plateau (TP) as an instance, analyses of the state‐of‐the‐art climate models participating in the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project imply that while the observed warming from 1961 to 2020 is predominantly attributed to GHG emission, the future temperature rise will be influenced by the combined effects of persistent increase in GHG concentration and reduction of AA emission. Here, we develop a new constraint method considering the changed contribution of AA forcing. Constrained by detected individual external forcings, the joint contributions of GHG (1.74°C) and AA forcings (0.10°C) will lead to a warming around 1.85°C over the TP during mid‐century (2041–2060) relative to 1995–2014 under SSP2‐4.5 scenario, which is 0.44°C cooler than the raw projection. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d8bb56d45a974644a58bdecc4893e75f |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2023-09-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-d8bb56d45a974644a58bdecc4893e75f2025-08-20T03:02:10ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072023-09-015017n/an/a10.1029/2023GL105427Observational Constraint on the Contributions of Greenhouse Gas Emission and Anthropogenic Aerosol Removal to Tibetan Plateau Future WarmingJie Jiang0Tianjun Zhou1State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaAbstract A decline of anthropogenic aerosol (AA) emission is expected worldwide over the coming decades. But the climate effects of aerosol removal and greenhouse gases (GHG) emission at regional scale are poorly distinguished and constrained. Taking the Tibetan Plateau (TP) as an instance, analyses of the state‐of‐the‐art climate models participating in the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project imply that while the observed warming from 1961 to 2020 is predominantly attributed to GHG emission, the future temperature rise will be influenced by the combined effects of persistent increase in GHG concentration and reduction of AA emission. Here, we develop a new constraint method considering the changed contribution of AA forcing. Constrained by detected individual external forcings, the joint contributions of GHG (1.74°C) and AA forcings (0.10°C) will lead to a warming around 1.85°C over the TP during mid‐century (2041–2060) relative to 1995–2014 under SSP2‐4.5 scenario, which is 0.44°C cooler than the raw projection.https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105427temperatureprojectionconstraindetection and attribution |
| spellingShingle | Jie Jiang Tianjun Zhou Observational Constraint on the Contributions of Greenhouse Gas Emission and Anthropogenic Aerosol Removal to Tibetan Plateau Future Warming Geophysical Research Letters temperature projection constrain detection and attribution |
| title | Observational Constraint on the Contributions of Greenhouse Gas Emission and Anthropogenic Aerosol Removal to Tibetan Plateau Future Warming |
| title_full | Observational Constraint on the Contributions of Greenhouse Gas Emission and Anthropogenic Aerosol Removal to Tibetan Plateau Future Warming |
| title_fullStr | Observational Constraint on the Contributions of Greenhouse Gas Emission and Anthropogenic Aerosol Removal to Tibetan Plateau Future Warming |
| title_full_unstemmed | Observational Constraint on the Contributions of Greenhouse Gas Emission and Anthropogenic Aerosol Removal to Tibetan Plateau Future Warming |
| title_short | Observational Constraint on the Contributions of Greenhouse Gas Emission and Anthropogenic Aerosol Removal to Tibetan Plateau Future Warming |
| title_sort | observational constraint on the contributions of greenhouse gas emission and anthropogenic aerosol removal to tibetan plateau future warming |
| topic | temperature projection constrain detection and attribution |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105427 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jiejiang observationalconstraintonthecontributionsofgreenhousegasemissionandanthropogenicaerosolremovaltotibetanplateaufuturewarming AT tianjunzhou observationalconstraintonthecontributionsofgreenhousegasemissionandanthropogenicaerosolremovaltotibetanplateaufuturewarming |