Escalating Hydrological Extremes and Whiplashes in the Western U.S.: Challenges for Water Management and Frontline Communities

Abstract The Western U.S. is experiencing significant changes in its hydrological dynamics, marked by increased variability and rapid “whiplash” shifts between extreme drought and flood conditions. This study quantified these changes using a customized hydrological water year index, which correlated...

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Main Authors: Wenzhao Li, Surendra Maharjan, Joshua B. Fisher, Thomas Piechota, Hesham El‐Askary
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2025-05-01
Series:Earth's Future
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005447
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author Wenzhao Li
Surendra Maharjan
Joshua B. Fisher
Thomas Piechota
Hesham El‐Askary
author_facet Wenzhao Li
Surendra Maharjan
Joshua B. Fisher
Thomas Piechota
Hesham El‐Askary
author_sort Wenzhao Li
collection DOAJ
description Abstract The Western U.S. is experiencing significant changes in its hydrological dynamics, marked by increased variability and rapid “whiplash” shifts between extreme drought and flood conditions. This study quantified these changes using a customized hydrological water year index, which correlated better with surface water storage in the basins than other drought/wetness indicators. Application of the index revealed heightened hydrological extremes and whiplash events post‐2015 in all Western U.S. basins, with nearly 72% of stations facing critically dry conditions in 2021 and over 54% experiencing extreme wet conditions in 2023. Future projections indicate a decline of 8.5%–13.2% in non‐extreme water year types across major basins, accompanied by increases in both extreme wet and dry water year types. Our findings suggest that similar levels of multi‐year drought duration and water deficits will likely occur regardless of future warming scenarios. This trend significantly impacts agriculture, the environment, and urban water use sectors. Notably, vulnerable frontline communities with higher risks and lower resilience experience disproportionate impacts from droughts compared to other communities.
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spelling doaj-art-d8948b6b4dd743f2910a89cf50a5ecba2025-08-20T03:05:42ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772025-05-01135n/an/a10.1029/2024EF005447Escalating Hydrological Extremes and Whiplashes in the Western U.S.: Challenges for Water Management and Frontline CommunitiesWenzhao Li0Surendra Maharjan1Joshua B. Fisher2Thomas Piechota3Hesham El‐Askary4Earth Systems Science and Data Solutions Lab Chapman University Orange CA USAEarth Systems Science and Data Solutions Lab Chapman University Orange CA USASchmid College of Science and Technology Chapman University Orange CA USAFowler School of Engineering Chapman University Orange CA USAEarth Systems Science and Data Solutions Lab Chapman University Orange CA USAAbstract The Western U.S. is experiencing significant changes in its hydrological dynamics, marked by increased variability and rapid “whiplash” shifts between extreme drought and flood conditions. This study quantified these changes using a customized hydrological water year index, which correlated better with surface water storage in the basins than other drought/wetness indicators. Application of the index revealed heightened hydrological extremes and whiplash events post‐2015 in all Western U.S. basins, with nearly 72% of stations facing critically dry conditions in 2021 and over 54% experiencing extreme wet conditions in 2023. Future projections indicate a decline of 8.5%–13.2% in non‐extreme water year types across major basins, accompanied by increases in both extreme wet and dry water year types. Our findings suggest that similar levels of multi‐year drought duration and water deficits will likely occur regardless of future warming scenarios. This trend significantly impacts agriculture, the environment, and urban water use sectors. Notably, vulnerable frontline communities with higher risks and lower resilience experience disproportionate impacts from droughts compared to other communities.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005447
spellingShingle Wenzhao Li
Surendra Maharjan
Joshua B. Fisher
Thomas Piechota
Hesham El‐Askary
Escalating Hydrological Extremes and Whiplashes in the Western U.S.: Challenges for Water Management and Frontline Communities
Earth's Future
title Escalating Hydrological Extremes and Whiplashes in the Western U.S.: Challenges for Water Management and Frontline Communities
title_full Escalating Hydrological Extremes and Whiplashes in the Western U.S.: Challenges for Water Management and Frontline Communities
title_fullStr Escalating Hydrological Extremes and Whiplashes in the Western U.S.: Challenges for Water Management and Frontline Communities
title_full_unstemmed Escalating Hydrological Extremes and Whiplashes in the Western U.S.: Challenges for Water Management and Frontline Communities
title_short Escalating Hydrological Extremes and Whiplashes in the Western U.S.: Challenges for Water Management and Frontline Communities
title_sort escalating hydrological extremes and whiplashes in the western u s challenges for water management and frontline communities
url https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005447
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AT joshuabfisher escalatinghydrologicalextremesandwhiplashesinthewesternuschallengesforwatermanagementandfrontlinecommunities
AT thomaspiechota escalatinghydrologicalextremesandwhiplashesinthewesternuschallengesforwatermanagementandfrontlinecommunities
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