A comprehensive approach to Queue Waiting Time Prediction using Tree-Based Ensembles with Data Balancing and Explainable AI
Abstract Queuing up for a service is sometimes an inevitable experience. The inefficiencies brought on by extended waiting times can be considerably decreased by precise waiting time prediction. Accurate prediction can substantially improve consumer satisfaction by reducing uncertainty. It is possib...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Springer
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Discover Analytics |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1007/s44257-025-00037-2 |
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| author | Tapodhir Karmakar Taton Bipin Saha Md. Johirul Islam Shaikh Khaled Mostaque |
| author_facet | Tapodhir Karmakar Taton Bipin Saha Md. Johirul Islam Shaikh Khaled Mostaque |
| author_sort | Tapodhir Karmakar Taton |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Queuing up for a service is sometimes an inevitable experience. The inefficiencies brought on by extended waiting times can be considerably decreased by precise waiting time prediction. Accurate prediction can substantially improve consumer satisfaction by reducing uncertainty. It is possible to introduce a robust approach to the prediction of waiting times based on previous queuing data and artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms. This paper contributes to the field by offering a robust approach to waiting time prediction and suggests potential directions for further research. The investigation leverages ensemble tree-based methods along with one statistical model, supplemented by various data pre-processing techniques for regression analysis to forecast precise waiting times. The following regression models have been used to assess the performance: Random Forest (RF), Extra Trees (ET), Gradient Boosting (GBR), Histogram-Based Gradient Boosting (HGBR), Voting (VR) and Ridge Regression. Among these, the ET Regressor demonstrates superior performance. Principal Component Analysis (PCA), t-distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE), and Autoencoders have been evaluated to compare the effectiveness of different dimensionality reduction techniques. Furthermore, the challenge of data imbalance in classification tasks has also been addressed here using the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE). This process impressively enhances classification accuracy, especially for minority classes. Transparency and trustworthiness in the predictive system have been ensured through the use of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques, which help interpret the decision-making processes of the models. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d7cd5220ee94455eaa46ddfcd362150b |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2731-8117 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Springer |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Discover Analytics |
| spelling | doaj-art-d7cd5220ee94455eaa46ddfcd362150b2025-08-20T04:01:47ZengSpringerDiscover Analytics2731-81172025-07-013111710.1007/s44257-025-00037-2A comprehensive approach to Queue Waiting Time Prediction using Tree-Based Ensembles with Data Balancing and Explainable AITapodhir Karmakar Taton0Bipin Saha1Md. Johirul Islam2Shaikh Khaled Mostaque3Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University of RajshahiDepartment of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University of RajshahiDepartment of Physics, Rajshahi University of Engineering & TechnologyDepartment of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University of RajshahiAbstract Queuing up for a service is sometimes an inevitable experience. The inefficiencies brought on by extended waiting times can be considerably decreased by precise waiting time prediction. Accurate prediction can substantially improve consumer satisfaction by reducing uncertainty. It is possible to introduce a robust approach to the prediction of waiting times based on previous queuing data and artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms. This paper contributes to the field by offering a robust approach to waiting time prediction and suggests potential directions for further research. The investigation leverages ensemble tree-based methods along with one statistical model, supplemented by various data pre-processing techniques for regression analysis to forecast precise waiting times. The following regression models have been used to assess the performance: Random Forest (RF), Extra Trees (ET), Gradient Boosting (GBR), Histogram-Based Gradient Boosting (HGBR), Voting (VR) and Ridge Regression. Among these, the ET Regressor demonstrates superior performance. Principal Component Analysis (PCA), t-distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE), and Autoencoders have been evaluated to compare the effectiveness of different dimensionality reduction techniques. Furthermore, the challenge of data imbalance in classification tasks has also been addressed here using the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE). This process impressively enhances classification accuracy, especially for minority classes. Transparency and trustworthiness in the predictive system have been ensured through the use of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques, which help interpret the decision-making processes of the models.https://doi.org/10.1007/s44257-025-00037-2Queue Waiting Time PredictionEnsemble TechniquesSMOTERegression AnalysisXAILIME |
| spellingShingle | Tapodhir Karmakar Taton Bipin Saha Md. Johirul Islam Shaikh Khaled Mostaque A comprehensive approach to Queue Waiting Time Prediction using Tree-Based Ensembles with Data Balancing and Explainable AI Discover Analytics Queue Waiting Time Prediction Ensemble Techniques SMOTE Regression Analysis XAI LIME |
| title | A comprehensive approach to Queue Waiting Time Prediction using Tree-Based Ensembles with Data Balancing and Explainable AI |
| title_full | A comprehensive approach to Queue Waiting Time Prediction using Tree-Based Ensembles with Data Balancing and Explainable AI |
| title_fullStr | A comprehensive approach to Queue Waiting Time Prediction using Tree-Based Ensembles with Data Balancing and Explainable AI |
| title_full_unstemmed | A comprehensive approach to Queue Waiting Time Prediction using Tree-Based Ensembles with Data Balancing and Explainable AI |
| title_short | A comprehensive approach to Queue Waiting Time Prediction using Tree-Based Ensembles with Data Balancing and Explainable AI |
| title_sort | comprehensive approach to queue waiting time prediction using tree based ensembles with data balancing and explainable ai |
| topic | Queue Waiting Time Prediction Ensemble Techniques SMOTE Regression Analysis XAI LIME |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1007/s44257-025-00037-2 |
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