How Do We Analyze the Accident Causation of Shield Construction of Water Conveyance Tunnels? A Method Based on the N-K Model and Complex Network

In the construction of water conveyance tunnels with the shield method, accidents have occurred from time to time, such as collapses and explosions, and it is of practical significance to explore the cause mechanism of the accident. However, previous research has not considered the effects of depend...

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Main Authors: Yong Zhang, Qi Zhang, Xiang Zhang, Meng Li, Guoqing Qi
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2024-10-01
Series:Mathematics
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/20/3222
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author Yong Zhang
Qi Zhang
Xiang Zhang
Meng Li
Guoqing Qi
author_facet Yong Zhang
Qi Zhang
Xiang Zhang
Meng Li
Guoqing Qi
author_sort Yong Zhang
collection DOAJ
description In the construction of water conveyance tunnels with the shield method, accidents have occurred from time to time, such as collapses and explosions, and it is of practical significance to explore the cause mechanism of the accident. However, previous research has not considered the effects of dependence between risks on the risk spread. In response, we propose a method based on the Natural Killing Model (the N-K Model) and complex network theory to analyze the cause of shield construction accidents in water conveyance tunnels. By deeply exploring the transmission mechanism and action intensity between system risks, this method can scientifically clarify the accident cause mechanism and provide support for engineering construction safety management. The method constructs a risk index system. Secondly, we introduce the N-K model to reveal the risk coupling mechanism. Then, based on complex network theory, we construct the incident causation model and revise the node’s centrality with the coupling value. Finally, the network topology parameters are calculated to quantitatively describe the causal characteristics of accidents, revealing the risk evolution process and critical causes. The research results indicate that the key causes of accidents are failure to construct according to regulations, inadequate emergency measures, poor ability of judgment and decision-making, and insufficient understanding of abnormal situations. The front end of critical links is subject to human or management risks and should be carefully controlled during construction.
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spelling doaj-art-d78a90fb3ef8421aa1f8cc038a6f01fb2025-08-20T02:10:56ZengMDPI AGMathematics2227-73902024-10-011220322210.3390/math12203222How Do We Analyze the Accident Causation of Shield Construction of Water Conveyance Tunnels? A Method Based on the N-K Model and Complex NetworkYong Zhang0Qi Zhang1Xiang Zhang2Meng Li3Guoqing Qi4School of Management, Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology, Xi’an 710055, ChinaSchool of Management, Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology, Xi’an 710055, ChinaSchool of Economics and Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350116, ChinaSchool of Management, Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology, Xi’an 710055, ChinaHanjiang-to-Weihe River Valley Water Diversion Project Construction Co., Ltd., Xi’an 710100, ChinaIn the construction of water conveyance tunnels with the shield method, accidents have occurred from time to time, such as collapses and explosions, and it is of practical significance to explore the cause mechanism of the accident. However, previous research has not considered the effects of dependence between risks on the risk spread. In response, we propose a method based on the Natural Killing Model (the N-K Model) and complex network theory to analyze the cause of shield construction accidents in water conveyance tunnels. By deeply exploring the transmission mechanism and action intensity between system risks, this method can scientifically clarify the accident cause mechanism and provide support for engineering construction safety management. The method constructs a risk index system. Secondly, we introduce the N-K model to reveal the risk coupling mechanism. Then, based on complex network theory, we construct the incident causation model and revise the node’s centrality with the coupling value. Finally, the network topology parameters are calculated to quantitatively describe the causal characteristics of accidents, revealing the risk evolution process and critical causes. The research results indicate that the key causes of accidents are failure to construct according to regulations, inadequate emergency measures, poor ability of judgment and decision-making, and insufficient understanding of abnormal situations. The front end of critical links is subject to human or management risks and should be carefully controlled during construction.https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/20/3222safety engineeringcausation analysiswater conveyance tunnelrisk couplingcomplex networkN-K model
spellingShingle Yong Zhang
Qi Zhang
Xiang Zhang
Meng Li
Guoqing Qi
How Do We Analyze the Accident Causation of Shield Construction of Water Conveyance Tunnels? A Method Based on the N-K Model and Complex Network
Mathematics
safety engineering
causation analysis
water conveyance tunnel
risk coupling
complex network
N-K model
title How Do We Analyze the Accident Causation of Shield Construction of Water Conveyance Tunnels? A Method Based on the N-K Model and Complex Network
title_full How Do We Analyze the Accident Causation of Shield Construction of Water Conveyance Tunnels? A Method Based on the N-K Model and Complex Network
title_fullStr How Do We Analyze the Accident Causation of Shield Construction of Water Conveyance Tunnels? A Method Based on the N-K Model and Complex Network
title_full_unstemmed How Do We Analyze the Accident Causation of Shield Construction of Water Conveyance Tunnels? A Method Based on the N-K Model and Complex Network
title_short How Do We Analyze the Accident Causation of Shield Construction of Water Conveyance Tunnels? A Method Based on the N-K Model and Complex Network
title_sort how do we analyze the accident causation of shield construction of water conveyance tunnels a method based on the n k model and complex network
topic safety engineering
causation analysis
water conveyance tunnel
risk coupling
complex network
N-K model
url https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/20/3222
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