Improved Prediction of Hourly PM<sub>2.5</sub> Concentrations with a Long Short-Term Memory Optimized by Stacking Ensemble Learning and Ant Colony Optimization
To address the performance degradation in existing PM<sub>2.5</sub> prediction models caused by excessive complexity, poor spatiotemporal efficiency, and suboptimal parameter optimization, we employ stacking ensemble learning for feature weighting analysis and integrate the ant colony op...
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MDPI AG
2025-04-01
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2305-6304/13/5/327 |
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| author | Zuhan Liu Xianping Hong |
| author_facet | Zuhan Liu Xianping Hong |
| author_sort | Zuhan Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | To address the performance degradation in existing PM<sub>2.5</sub> prediction models caused by excessive complexity, poor spatiotemporal efficiency, and suboptimal parameter optimization, we employ stacking ensemble learning for feature weighting analysis and integrate the ant colony optimization (ACO) algorithm for model parameter optimization. Combining meteorological and collaborative pollutant data, a model (namely the stacking-ACO-LSTM model) with a much shorter consuming time than that of only long short-term memory (LSTM) networks suitable for PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentration prediction is established. It can effectively filter out feature variables with higher weights, thereby reducing the predictive power of the model. The prediction of hourly PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentration of the model is trained and tested using real-time monitoring data in Nanchang City from 2017 to 2019. The results show that the established stacking-ACO-LSTM model has high accuracy in predicting PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentration, and compared to the same model without considering time and space efficiency and defective parameter optimization, the mean square error (MSE) decreases by about 99.88%, and the coefficient of determination (R<sup>2</sup>) increases by about 2.39%. This study provides a new idea for predicting PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentration in cities. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d74c15b460dd4d278bb68878464b0ac2 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2305-6304 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Toxics |
| spelling | doaj-art-d74c15b460dd4d278bb68878464b0ac22025-08-20T03:12:15ZengMDPI AGToxics2305-63042025-04-0113532710.3390/toxics13050327Improved Prediction of Hourly PM<sub>2.5</sub> Concentrations with a Long Short-Term Memory Optimized by Stacking Ensemble Learning and Ant Colony OptimizationZuhan Liu0Xianping Hong1School of Information Engineering, Nanchang Institute of Technology, Nanchang 330099, ChinaSchool of Information Engineering, Nanchang Institute of Technology, Nanchang 330099, ChinaTo address the performance degradation in existing PM<sub>2.5</sub> prediction models caused by excessive complexity, poor spatiotemporal efficiency, and suboptimal parameter optimization, we employ stacking ensemble learning for feature weighting analysis and integrate the ant colony optimization (ACO) algorithm for model parameter optimization. Combining meteorological and collaborative pollutant data, a model (namely the stacking-ACO-LSTM model) with a much shorter consuming time than that of only long short-term memory (LSTM) networks suitable for PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentration prediction is established. It can effectively filter out feature variables with higher weights, thereby reducing the predictive power of the model. The prediction of hourly PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentration of the model is trained and tested using real-time monitoring data in Nanchang City from 2017 to 2019. The results show that the established stacking-ACO-LSTM model has high accuracy in predicting PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentration, and compared to the same model without considering time and space efficiency and defective parameter optimization, the mean square error (MSE) decreases by about 99.88%, and the coefficient of determination (R<sup>2</sup>) increases by about 2.39%. This study provides a new idea for predicting PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentration in cities.https://www.mdpi.com/2305-6304/13/5/327PM<sub>2.5</sub>long short-term memory network (LSTM)ant colony optimization (ACO)stacking ensemble learningdeep learning |
| spellingShingle | Zuhan Liu Xianping Hong Improved Prediction of Hourly PM<sub>2.5</sub> Concentrations with a Long Short-Term Memory Optimized by Stacking Ensemble Learning and Ant Colony Optimization Toxics PM<sub>2.5</sub> long short-term memory network (LSTM) ant colony optimization (ACO) stacking ensemble learning deep learning |
| title | Improved Prediction of Hourly PM<sub>2.5</sub> Concentrations with a Long Short-Term Memory Optimized by Stacking Ensemble Learning and Ant Colony Optimization |
| title_full | Improved Prediction of Hourly PM<sub>2.5</sub> Concentrations with a Long Short-Term Memory Optimized by Stacking Ensemble Learning and Ant Colony Optimization |
| title_fullStr | Improved Prediction of Hourly PM<sub>2.5</sub> Concentrations with a Long Short-Term Memory Optimized by Stacking Ensemble Learning and Ant Colony Optimization |
| title_full_unstemmed | Improved Prediction of Hourly PM<sub>2.5</sub> Concentrations with a Long Short-Term Memory Optimized by Stacking Ensemble Learning and Ant Colony Optimization |
| title_short | Improved Prediction of Hourly PM<sub>2.5</sub> Concentrations with a Long Short-Term Memory Optimized by Stacking Ensemble Learning and Ant Colony Optimization |
| title_sort | improved prediction of hourly pm sub 2 5 sub concentrations with a long short term memory optimized by stacking ensemble learning and ant colony optimization |
| topic | PM<sub>2.5</sub> long short-term memory network (LSTM) ant colony optimization (ACO) stacking ensemble learning deep learning |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2305-6304/13/5/327 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT zuhanliu improvedpredictionofhourlypmsub25subconcentrationswithalongshorttermmemoryoptimizedbystackingensemblelearningandantcolonyoptimization AT xianpinghong improvedpredictionofhourlypmsub25subconcentrationswithalongshorttermmemoryoptimizedbystackingensemblelearningandantcolonyoptimization |