The impact of public debt on economic growth in Serbia: An empirical study using the ARDL approach
The paper analyses the relationship between public debt and economic growth in Serbia. The empirical analysis was conducted using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approaches for the period 2001-2023. The estimated long-run param...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Faculty of Economics, Belgrade
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Ekonomski Anali |
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| Online Access: | https://doiserbia.nb.rs/img/doi/0013-3264/2025/0013-32642545007K.pdf |
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| _version_ | 1849728799951814656 |
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| author | Kovačević Radovan |
| author_facet | Kovačević Radovan |
| author_sort | Kovačević Radovan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The paper analyses the relationship between public debt and economic growth
in Serbia. The empirical analysis was conducted using the autoregressive
distributed lag (ARDL) and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL)
approaches for the period 2001-2023. The estimated long-run parameters in
NARDL show that a 1% increase in the public debtto-GDP ratio is associated
with a 0.25% decrease in real GDP per capita growth and that a 1% decrease
in public debt is on average associated with a 0.7% increase in real GDP per
capita growth, both with the first lag. This shows that real GDP per capita
growth reacts asymmetrically to changes in public debt, such that the
magnitude of the positive reaction to public debt reduction is greater than
that of the negative reaction to an increase in public debt. The estimated
short-term coefficients also confirm this asymmetry. The long-run
coefficient of the public debt service parameter indicates the negative
impact of debt service on economic growth, as a 1% increase in public debt
service to GDP ratio is associated with a 0.17% decline in real GDP per
capita growth. The long-run relationship between the current account deficit
and economic growth is positive and shows that the increase in the current
account deficit by 1% of GDP correlates with the increase in real GDP per
capita growth by 0.26% with the first lag. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d64c222e138f4a34a13bcfc1d386d312 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 0013-3264 1820-7375 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Faculty of Economics, Belgrade |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ekonomski Anali |
| spelling | doaj-art-d64c222e138f4a34a13bcfc1d386d3122025-08-20T03:09:25ZengFaculty of Economics, BelgradeEkonomski Anali0013-32641820-73752025-01-017024574210.2298/EKA2545007K0013-32642545007KThe impact of public debt on economic growth in Serbia: An empirical study using the ARDL approachKovačević Radovan0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5857-730XUniversity of Belgrade, Faculty of Economics and BusinessThe paper analyses the relationship between public debt and economic growth in Serbia. The empirical analysis was conducted using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approaches for the period 2001-2023. The estimated long-run parameters in NARDL show that a 1% increase in the public debtto-GDP ratio is associated with a 0.25% decrease in real GDP per capita growth and that a 1% decrease in public debt is on average associated with a 0.7% increase in real GDP per capita growth, both with the first lag. This shows that real GDP per capita growth reacts asymmetrically to changes in public debt, such that the magnitude of the positive reaction to public debt reduction is greater than that of the negative reaction to an increase in public debt. The estimated short-term coefficients also confirm this asymmetry. The long-run coefficient of the public debt service parameter indicates the negative impact of debt service on economic growth, as a 1% increase in public debt service to GDP ratio is associated with a 0.17% decline in real GDP per capita growth. The long-run relationship between the current account deficit and economic growth is positive and shows that the increase in the current account deficit by 1% of GDP correlates with the increase in real GDP per capita growth by 0.26% with the first lag.https://doiserbia.nb.rs/img/doi/0013-3264/2025/0013-32642545007K.pdfpublic debtdebt serviceeconomic growthardl and nardl |
| spellingShingle | Kovačević Radovan The impact of public debt on economic growth in Serbia: An empirical study using the ARDL approach Ekonomski Anali public debt debt service economic growth ardl and nardl |
| title | The impact of public debt on economic growth in Serbia: An empirical study using the ARDL approach |
| title_full | The impact of public debt on economic growth in Serbia: An empirical study using the ARDL approach |
| title_fullStr | The impact of public debt on economic growth in Serbia: An empirical study using the ARDL approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | The impact of public debt on economic growth in Serbia: An empirical study using the ARDL approach |
| title_short | The impact of public debt on economic growth in Serbia: An empirical study using the ARDL approach |
| title_sort | impact of public debt on economic growth in serbia an empirical study using the ardl approach |
| topic | public debt debt service economic growth ardl and nardl |
| url | https://doiserbia.nb.rs/img/doi/0013-3264/2025/0013-32642545007K.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT kovacevicradovan theimpactofpublicdebtoneconomicgrowthinserbiaanempiricalstudyusingtheardlapproach AT kovacevicradovan impactofpublicdebtoneconomicgrowthinserbiaanempiricalstudyusingtheardlapproach |