FORECASTING OF AIRCRAFT USING THE METHODS OF FORESIGHT: FOREIGN EXPERIENCE
In the article the forecasts of the aircraft industry made within the framework of international foresight studies of the last decade are discussed. The objectives, scope, topics and level of detail of these projects are defined. Comparative analysis of foresight studies of the EU, Canada, France, U...
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Moscow State Technical University of Civil Aviation
2016-12-01
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| Series: | Научный вестник МГТУ ГА |
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| Online Access: | https://avia.mstuca.ru/jour/article/view/894 |
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| author | N. P. Velikanova O. I. Karasev A. A. Polozov-Yablonsky |
| author_facet | N. P. Velikanova O. I. Karasev A. A. Polozov-Yablonsky |
| author_sort | N. P. Velikanova |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In the article the forecasts of the aircraft industry made within the framework of international foresight studies of the last decade are discussed. The objectives, scope, topics and level of detail of these projects are defined. Comparative analysis of foresight studies of the EU, Canada, France, USA, Australia, Japan, Korea, India and Russia allows to create a collective "Image of the Future" of the global aircraft industry, reflecting the wide range of customers needs and expectations.In the twenty-first century foresight became an instrument of public policy building in developed countries. The foresight studies for aviation sector demonstrate noticeable differences: some of them are dedicated to the prospects of aircraft industry as a whole, others are studying special issues such as aviation safety. Most part of modern foresight projects consider the aviation prospects within the context of global challenges, environmental, energy and technological trends (development of new materials, intelligent technology, etc).Technologies considered by leading foresight projects are grouped into 10 thematic areas: aircraft design; aircraft engines; new materials, methods of their creation and development; avionics; information and communication technologies; ecology and environment protection; energy saving; ground operations (including operation of airports); aviation security; air traffic management. Despite the existing differences of sectoral goal-setting, some sustainable priorities were found. Among them there are three technological groups: technologies improving ecological performance and reducing harmful emissions; development of new materials and coatings for the aviation industry; the improvement of aviation safety.The performed analysis of aviation foresight results has shown the importance of strengthening international cooperation in the area of ecology, in particular the harmonization of environment protection requirements, of multidisciplinary approach to forecasting; orientation to the concept of "Grand Challenges", which provides for the transition from separate technology areas support to the search of complex solutions of the problems facing the world community. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d605bfe4e8a740a3b8a3a5d92d02208a |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2079-0619 2542-0119 |
| language | Russian |
| publishDate | 2016-12-01 |
| publisher | Moscow State Technical University of Civil Aviation |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Научный вестник МГТУ ГА |
| spelling | doaj-art-d605bfe4e8a740a3b8a3a5d92d02208a2025-08-20T03:35:44ZrusMoscow State Technical University of Civil AviationНаучный вестник МГТУ ГА2079-06192542-01192016-12-010225188196894FORECASTING OF AIRCRAFT USING THE METHODS OF FORESIGHT: FOREIGN EXPERIENCEN. P. Velikanova0O. I. Karasev1A. A. Polozov-Yablonsky2Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»МГУ имени М.В. ЛомоносоваПАО «Аэрофлот – российские авиалинии»In the article the forecasts of the aircraft industry made within the framework of international foresight studies of the last decade are discussed. The objectives, scope, topics and level of detail of these projects are defined. Comparative analysis of foresight studies of the EU, Canada, France, USA, Australia, Japan, Korea, India and Russia allows to create a collective "Image of the Future" of the global aircraft industry, reflecting the wide range of customers needs and expectations.In the twenty-first century foresight became an instrument of public policy building in developed countries. The foresight studies for aviation sector demonstrate noticeable differences: some of them are dedicated to the prospects of aircraft industry as a whole, others are studying special issues such as aviation safety. Most part of modern foresight projects consider the aviation prospects within the context of global challenges, environmental, energy and technological trends (development of new materials, intelligent technology, etc).Technologies considered by leading foresight projects are grouped into 10 thematic areas: aircraft design; aircraft engines; new materials, methods of their creation and development; avionics; information and communication technologies; ecology and environment protection; energy saving; ground operations (including operation of airports); aviation security; air traffic management. Despite the existing differences of sectoral goal-setting, some sustainable priorities were found. Among them there are three technological groups: technologies improving ecological performance and reducing harmful emissions; development of new materials and coatings for the aviation industry; the improvement of aviation safety.The performed analysis of aviation foresight results has shown the importance of strengthening international cooperation in the area of ecology, in particular the harmonization of environment protection requirements, of multidisciplinary approach to forecasting; orientation to the concept of "Grand Challenges", which provides for the transition from separate technology areas support to the search of complex solutions of the problems facing the world community.https://avia.mstuca.ru/jour/article/view/894aircraftforecastingforesightglobal challenges |
| spellingShingle | N. P. Velikanova O. I. Karasev A. A. Polozov-Yablonsky FORECASTING OF AIRCRAFT USING THE METHODS OF FORESIGHT: FOREIGN EXPERIENCE Научный вестник МГТУ ГА aircraft forecasting foresight global challenges |
| title | FORECASTING OF AIRCRAFT USING THE METHODS OF FORESIGHT: FOREIGN EXPERIENCE |
| title_full | FORECASTING OF AIRCRAFT USING THE METHODS OF FORESIGHT: FOREIGN EXPERIENCE |
| title_fullStr | FORECASTING OF AIRCRAFT USING THE METHODS OF FORESIGHT: FOREIGN EXPERIENCE |
| title_full_unstemmed | FORECASTING OF AIRCRAFT USING THE METHODS OF FORESIGHT: FOREIGN EXPERIENCE |
| title_short | FORECASTING OF AIRCRAFT USING THE METHODS OF FORESIGHT: FOREIGN EXPERIENCE |
| title_sort | forecasting of aircraft using the methods of foresight foreign experience |
| topic | aircraft forecasting foresight global challenges |
| url | https://avia.mstuca.ru/jour/article/view/894 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT npvelikanova forecastingofaircraftusingthemethodsofforesightforeignexperience AT oikarasev forecastingofaircraftusingthemethodsofforesightforeignexperience AT aapolozovyablonsky forecastingofaircraftusingthemethodsofforesightforeignexperience |