Risk classification for long‐term mortality among patients with acute heart failure: China PEACE 4YMortality
Abstract Aims There are limited tools to predict long‐term mortality among patients hospitalized with acute heart failure (AHF) in China. This study aimed to develop and validate a model to predict long‐term mortality risk among patients who were hospitalized with AHF and discharged alive. Methods W...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2025-06-01
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| Series: | ESC Heart Failure |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/ehf2.15207 |
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| Summary: | Abstract Aims There are limited tools to predict long‐term mortality among patients hospitalized with acute heart failure (AHF) in China. This study aimed to develop and validate a model to predict long‐term mortality risk among patients who were hospitalized with AHF and discharged alive. Methods We used data from China Patient‐Centred Evaluative Assessment of Cardiac Events Prospective Heart Failure Study. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard model was used to develop and internal validate a model to predict 4 year mortality risk. Results The study included 4875 patients hospitalized for AHF, of whom 2066 (42.38%) died within 4 years following admission, with a median survival time of 3.91 (interquartile range: 1.67, 4.00) years. We selected 13 predictors to establish the model, including age, medical history of hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and HF, systolic blood pressure, blood urea nitrogen, albumin, high‐sensitivity troponin T, N‐terminal pro‐brain natriuretic peptide, serum creatine, Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire‐12 score and left ventricular ejection fraction. The model showed a reasonable performance with the discrimination [C‐index was 0.726 (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.714, 0.739) in the development cohort and 0.727 (95% CI: 0.708, 0.747) in the validation cohort]. We then built a point‐based risk score algorithm and the patients were stratified to low‐risk (0–14), intermediate‐risk (15–19) and high‐risk (≥20) groups. Conclusions By using readily accessible predictors, we developed and validated a risk prediction model to predict 4 year mortality risk among patients who were hospitalized with AHF and discharged alive. This model proved beneficial for individual risk stratification and facilitating ongoing enhancements in patient outcomes. |
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| ISSN: | 2055-5822 |