Global Epidemiology of Early-Onset Aortic Aneurysm: Temporal Trends, Risk Factors, and Future Burden Projections
Abstract Background Aortic aneurysm has a subtle onset, high rupture mortality, rapid progression in younger individuals, and increasing annual mortality rates. Our study aimed to estimate the global burden and trends of early-onset aortic aneurysm from 1990 to 2021. Methods Participants aged 15–39...
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Springer
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1007/s44197-025-00369-y |
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| author | Heng Wang Yaling Li Keyi Fan Taoran Zhao Keyang Xu Mayeesha Zahin Shule Wang Genmao Cao Tingting Gao Xiaohua Jia Ruijing Zhang Honglin Dong Guoping Zheng |
| author_facet | Heng Wang Yaling Li Keyi Fan Taoran Zhao Keyang Xu Mayeesha Zahin Shule Wang Genmao Cao Tingting Gao Xiaohua Jia Ruijing Zhang Honglin Dong Guoping Zheng |
| author_sort | Heng Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Aortic aneurysm has a subtle onset, high rupture mortality, rapid progression in younger individuals, and increasing annual mortality rates. Our study aimed to estimate the global burden and trends of early-onset aortic aneurysm from 1990 to 2021. Methods Participants aged 15–39 years from 204 countries and regions (Global Burdern of Disease, GBD) from 1990 to 2021.The primary assessment indicators include age-standardized death rates (ASDR), age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rates (ASDALYR), annual average percent change (AAPC), attributable risk factor proportions, slope index, concentration index, and predictive model for early-onset aortic aneurysm. Results From 1990 to 2021, the ASDR for aortic aneurysm in adolescents and young adults increased from 0.12 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.11, 0.14) to 0.13 (0.11, 0.14) per 100,000 population, with an AAPC of 0.08% (-0.08%, 0.25%). The ASDALYR rose from 7.25 (6.52, 8.30) to 7.35 (6.51, 8.37), with an AAPC of 0.07% (-0.09%, 0.23%). Both ASDR and ASDALYR are higher in males than females, with a declining trend in females. Higher Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) countries exhibit higher ASDR and ASDALYR compared to lower SDI countries, with a continuous decline observed in high SDI nations. Smoking remains the top risk factor, with population growth being the primary driver. Models predict a global increase in aortic aneurysm deaths, predominantly among males. Conclusion The overall burden of early-onset aortic aneurysms has exhibited an increasing trend over the last three decades, especially in lower SDI countries. There is an urgent need to develop targeted prevention and control strategies across different regions and countries worldwide. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d5f0478101344a059bc540a6435e45fd |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2210-6014 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Springer |
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| series | Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health |
| spelling | doaj-art-d5f0478101344a059bc540a6435e45fd2025-08-20T02:12:58ZengSpringerJournal of Epidemiology and Global Health2210-60142025-02-0115111710.1007/s44197-025-00369-yGlobal Epidemiology of Early-Onset Aortic Aneurysm: Temporal Trends, Risk Factors, and Future Burden ProjectionsHeng Wang0Yaling Li1Keyi Fan2Taoran Zhao3Keyang Xu4Mayeesha Zahin5Shule Wang6Genmao Cao7Tingting Gao8Xiaohua Jia9Ruijing Zhang10Honglin Dong11Guoping Zheng12Centre for Transplant and Renal Research, Westmead Institute for Medical Research, The University of SydneyDepartment of Vascular Surgery, The Second Hospital of Shanxi Medical UniversityDepartment of Vascular Surgery, The Second Hospital of Shanxi Medical UniversityCentre for Transplant and Renal Research, Westmead Institute for Medical Research, The University of SydneyFaculty of Chinese Medicine and State Key Laboratory of Quality Research in Chinese Medicine, Macau University of Science and TechnologyCentre for Transplant and Renal Research, Westmead Institute for Medical Research, The University of SydneyNeuroscience Institute, JFK University Medical CenterDepartment of Vascular Surgery, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan UniversityDepartment of Vascular Surgery, The Second Hospital of Shanxi Medical UniversityKey Laboratory of Molecular Imaging of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of SciencesDepartment of Nephrology, The Second Hospital of Shanxi Medical UniversityDepartment of Vascular Surgery, The Second Hospital of Shanxi Medical UniversityCentre for Transplant and Renal Research, Westmead Institute for Medical Research, The University of SydneyAbstract Background Aortic aneurysm has a subtle onset, high rupture mortality, rapid progression in younger individuals, and increasing annual mortality rates. Our study aimed to estimate the global burden and trends of early-onset aortic aneurysm from 1990 to 2021. Methods Participants aged 15–39 years from 204 countries and regions (Global Burdern of Disease, GBD) from 1990 to 2021.The primary assessment indicators include age-standardized death rates (ASDR), age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rates (ASDALYR), annual average percent change (AAPC), attributable risk factor proportions, slope index, concentration index, and predictive model for early-onset aortic aneurysm. Results From 1990 to 2021, the ASDR for aortic aneurysm in adolescents and young adults increased from 0.12 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.11, 0.14) to 0.13 (0.11, 0.14) per 100,000 population, with an AAPC of 0.08% (-0.08%, 0.25%). The ASDALYR rose from 7.25 (6.52, 8.30) to 7.35 (6.51, 8.37), with an AAPC of 0.07% (-0.09%, 0.23%). Both ASDR and ASDALYR are higher in males than females, with a declining trend in females. Higher Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) countries exhibit higher ASDR and ASDALYR compared to lower SDI countries, with a continuous decline observed in high SDI nations. Smoking remains the top risk factor, with population growth being the primary driver. Models predict a global increase in aortic aneurysm deaths, predominantly among males. Conclusion The overall burden of early-onset aortic aneurysms has exhibited an increasing trend over the last three decades, especially in lower SDI countries. There is an urgent need to develop targeted prevention and control strategies across different regions and countries worldwide.https://doi.org/10.1007/s44197-025-00369-yEarly-onset aortic aneurysmGlobal burden of diseaseEpidemiologyDisability-adjusted life years |
| spellingShingle | Heng Wang Yaling Li Keyi Fan Taoran Zhao Keyang Xu Mayeesha Zahin Shule Wang Genmao Cao Tingting Gao Xiaohua Jia Ruijing Zhang Honglin Dong Guoping Zheng Global Epidemiology of Early-Onset Aortic Aneurysm: Temporal Trends, Risk Factors, and Future Burden Projections Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health Early-onset aortic aneurysm Global burden of disease Epidemiology Disability-adjusted life years |
| title | Global Epidemiology of Early-Onset Aortic Aneurysm: Temporal Trends, Risk Factors, and Future Burden Projections |
| title_full | Global Epidemiology of Early-Onset Aortic Aneurysm: Temporal Trends, Risk Factors, and Future Burden Projections |
| title_fullStr | Global Epidemiology of Early-Onset Aortic Aneurysm: Temporal Trends, Risk Factors, and Future Burden Projections |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global Epidemiology of Early-Onset Aortic Aneurysm: Temporal Trends, Risk Factors, and Future Burden Projections |
| title_short | Global Epidemiology of Early-Onset Aortic Aneurysm: Temporal Trends, Risk Factors, and Future Burden Projections |
| title_sort | global epidemiology of early onset aortic aneurysm temporal trends risk factors and future burden projections |
| topic | Early-onset aortic aneurysm Global burden of disease Epidemiology Disability-adjusted life years |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1007/s44197-025-00369-y |
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