Association of estimated glucose disposal rate with atrial fibrillation, heart failure and cardiovascular mortality in patients with diabetes: a prospective cohort study from the UK Biobank

BackgroundEstimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR) was a novel non-insulin-based marker of insulin resistance (IR), which had been used in many studies to evaluate the clinical prognosis of diabetes. However, the association of eGDR with atrial fibrillation (AF), heart failure (HF) and cardiovascular...

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Main Authors: Zhen Tan, Yijun Liu, Lei Liu, Shuang Li, Xinrui Xue, Xiaoping Li, Hongqiang Ren
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Frontiers Media S.A. 2025-07-01
Series:Frontiers in Endocrinology
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Online Access:https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fendo.2025.1579836/full
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author Zhen Tan
Yijun Liu
Lei Liu
Shuang Li
Xinrui Xue
Xiaoping Li
Hongqiang Ren
author_facet Zhen Tan
Yijun Liu
Lei Liu
Shuang Li
Xinrui Xue
Xiaoping Li
Hongqiang Ren
author_sort Zhen Tan
collection DOAJ
description BackgroundEstimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR) was a novel non-insulin-based marker of insulin resistance (IR), which had been used in many studies to evaluate the clinical prognosis of diabetes. However, the association of eGDR with atrial fibrillation (AF), heart failure (HF) and cardiovascular mortality in patients with diabetes remains unclear.MethodsThe study utilized UK Biobank data from 31,733 participants. Kaplan-Meier curves and Log-rank tests assessed AF, HF, and cardiovascular mortality incidence. Multivariate Cox models and restricted cubic splines analyzed the associations of eGDR with these outcomes. Polygenic Risk Score (PRS) analysis evaluated the joint effects of eGDR and PRS. Boruta algorithm filtered key predictive variables. Subgroup analysis was performed using cardiovascular high-risk factors, and mediation analysis explored the relationships of eGDR with the outcomes.ResultsSubjects with higher eGDR were more likely to be female, younger, more physically active, non-smoker, and non-drinker. The cumulative incidence of AF, HF, and cardiovascular mortality in the higher quartiles of GDR were significantly lower than those in the lowest quartile (log-rank P < 0.001 for all). eGDR exhibited an independent negative linear correlation with the risk of AF (HR = 0.94, 95% CI: 0.91-0.96), HF (HR = 0.78, 95% CI: 0.74-0.82), and cardiovascular mortality (HR = 0.86, 95% CI: 0.83-0.88) risk. eGDR made the most significant contribution to the predicted outcomes. In diabetic patients with high genetic susceptibility, high eGDR could reduce the risk of AF (HR = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.51-0.90), HF (HR = 0.43, 95% CI: 0.29-0.62), and cardiovascular mortality (HR = 0.30, 95% CI: 0.22-0.42). Mediation analysis demonstrated that 10.7%, 7.9%, and 10.3% of the relationship between eGDR and AF, HF, and cardiovascular mortality among individuals with diabetes were mediated by eGFR, respectively.ConclusionsThis study demonstrated that higher eGDR levels were associated with a decreased risk of AF, HF, and cardiovascular mortality. Therefore, eGDR may serve as a valuable tool for predicting the risk of AF, HF, and cardiovascular mortality in patients with diabetes.
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spelling doaj-art-d5df6b3ff9824c9ca379ad5b22e1e8e92025-08-20T02:39:41ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Endocrinology1664-23922025-07-011610.3389/fendo.2025.15798361579836Association of estimated glucose disposal rate with atrial fibrillation, heart failure and cardiovascular mortality in patients with diabetes: a prospective cohort study from the UK BiobankZhen Tan0Yijun Liu1Lei Liu2Shuang Li3Xinrui Xue4Xiaoping Li5Hongqiang Ren6Department of Cardiology, Suining Central Hospital, Suining, Sichuan, ChinaDepartment of Cardiology, Suining Central Hospital, Suining, Sichuan, ChinaDepartment of Cardiology, Suining Central Hospital, Suining, Sichuan, ChinaDepartment of Cardiology, Suining Central Hospital, Suining, Sichuan, ChinaDepartment of Cardiology, Suining Central Hospital, Suining, Sichuan, ChinaDepartment of Cardiology, Sichuan Provincial People’s Hospital, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, Sichuan, ChinaDepartment of Cardiology, Suining Central Hospital, Suining, Sichuan, ChinaBackgroundEstimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR) was a novel non-insulin-based marker of insulin resistance (IR), which had been used in many studies to evaluate the clinical prognosis of diabetes. However, the association of eGDR with atrial fibrillation (AF), heart failure (HF) and cardiovascular mortality in patients with diabetes remains unclear.MethodsThe study utilized UK Biobank data from 31,733 participants. Kaplan-Meier curves and Log-rank tests assessed AF, HF, and cardiovascular mortality incidence. Multivariate Cox models and restricted cubic splines analyzed the associations of eGDR with these outcomes. Polygenic Risk Score (PRS) analysis evaluated the joint effects of eGDR and PRS. Boruta algorithm filtered key predictive variables. Subgroup analysis was performed using cardiovascular high-risk factors, and mediation analysis explored the relationships of eGDR with the outcomes.ResultsSubjects with higher eGDR were more likely to be female, younger, more physically active, non-smoker, and non-drinker. The cumulative incidence of AF, HF, and cardiovascular mortality in the higher quartiles of GDR were significantly lower than those in the lowest quartile (log-rank P < 0.001 for all). eGDR exhibited an independent negative linear correlation with the risk of AF (HR = 0.94, 95% CI: 0.91-0.96), HF (HR = 0.78, 95% CI: 0.74-0.82), and cardiovascular mortality (HR = 0.86, 95% CI: 0.83-0.88) risk. eGDR made the most significant contribution to the predicted outcomes. In diabetic patients with high genetic susceptibility, high eGDR could reduce the risk of AF (HR = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.51-0.90), HF (HR = 0.43, 95% CI: 0.29-0.62), and cardiovascular mortality (HR = 0.30, 95% CI: 0.22-0.42). Mediation analysis demonstrated that 10.7%, 7.9%, and 10.3% of the relationship between eGDR and AF, HF, and cardiovascular mortality among individuals with diabetes were mediated by eGFR, respectively.ConclusionsThis study demonstrated that higher eGDR levels were associated with a decreased risk of AF, HF, and cardiovascular mortality. Therefore, eGDR may serve as a valuable tool for predicting the risk of AF, HF, and cardiovascular mortality in patients with diabetes.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fendo.2025.1579836/fullestimated glucose disposal ratecardiovascular diseaseatrial fibrillationheart failurecardiovascular mortalitypatients with diabetes
spellingShingle Zhen Tan
Yijun Liu
Lei Liu
Shuang Li
Xinrui Xue
Xiaoping Li
Hongqiang Ren
Association of estimated glucose disposal rate with atrial fibrillation, heart failure and cardiovascular mortality in patients with diabetes: a prospective cohort study from the UK Biobank
Frontiers in Endocrinology
estimated glucose disposal rate
cardiovascular disease
atrial fibrillation
heart failure
cardiovascular mortality
patients with diabetes
title Association of estimated glucose disposal rate with atrial fibrillation, heart failure and cardiovascular mortality in patients with diabetes: a prospective cohort study from the UK Biobank
title_full Association of estimated glucose disposal rate with atrial fibrillation, heart failure and cardiovascular mortality in patients with diabetes: a prospective cohort study from the UK Biobank
title_fullStr Association of estimated glucose disposal rate with atrial fibrillation, heart failure and cardiovascular mortality in patients with diabetes: a prospective cohort study from the UK Biobank
title_full_unstemmed Association of estimated glucose disposal rate with atrial fibrillation, heart failure and cardiovascular mortality in patients with diabetes: a prospective cohort study from the UK Biobank
title_short Association of estimated glucose disposal rate with atrial fibrillation, heart failure and cardiovascular mortality in patients with diabetes: a prospective cohort study from the UK Biobank
title_sort association of estimated glucose disposal rate with atrial fibrillation heart failure and cardiovascular mortality in patients with diabetes a prospective cohort study from the uk biobank
topic estimated glucose disposal rate
cardiovascular disease
atrial fibrillation
heart failure
cardiovascular mortality
patients with diabetes
url https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fendo.2025.1579836/full
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