One-third of the global soybean production failure in 2012 is attributable to climate change
Abstract In 2012, soybean crops failed in the three largest producing regions due to spatially compounded hot and dry weather across North and South America. Here, we present different impact storylines of the 2012 event, calculated by combining a statistical crop model with climate model simulation...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02171-x |
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| author | Raed Hamed Corey Lesk Theodore G. Shepherd Henrique M. D. Goulart Linda van Garderen Bart van den Hurk Dim Coumou |
| author_facet | Raed Hamed Corey Lesk Theodore G. Shepherd Henrique M. D. Goulart Linda van Garderen Bart van den Hurk Dim Coumou |
| author_sort | Raed Hamed |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract In 2012, soybean crops failed in the three largest producing regions due to spatially compounded hot and dry weather across North and South America. Here, we present different impact storylines of the 2012 event, calculated by combining a statistical crop model with climate model simulations of 2012 conditions under pre-industrial, present-day (+1 °C), and future (+2 °C) conditions. These simulations use the ECHAM6 climate model and maintain the same observed seasonally evolving atmospheric circulation. Our results demonstrate that anthropogenic warming strongly amplifies the impacts of such a large-scale circulation pattern on global soybean production. Although the drought intensity is similar under different warming levels, larger crop losses are driven not only by warmer temperatures but also by stronger heat-moisture interactions. We estimate that one-third of the global soybean production deficit in 2012 is attributable to anthropogenic climate change. Future warming (+2 °C above pre-industrial) would further exacerbate production deficits by one-half compared to present-day 2012 conditions. This highlights the increasing intensity of global soybean production shocks with warming, requiring urgent adaptation strategies. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d5dd436229df4e44aef024bcad301bee |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2662-4435 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communications Earth & Environment |
| spelling | doaj-art-d5dd436229df4e44aef024bcad301bee2025-08-20T02:56:09ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Earth & Environment2662-44352025-03-01611910.1038/s43247-025-02171-xOne-third of the global soybean production failure in 2012 is attributable to climate changeRaed Hamed0Corey Lesk1Theodore G. Shepherd2Henrique M. D. Goulart3Linda van Garderen4Bart van den Hurk5Dim Coumou6Department of Water and Climate Risk, Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit AmsterdamDepartment of Geography, Neukom Institute, Dartmouth CollegeDepartment of Meteorology, University of ReadingDepartment of Water and Climate Risk, Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit AmsterdamInstitute of Coastal Systems - Analysis and Modelling, Helmholtz-Zentrum HereonDepartment of Water and Climate Risk, Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit AmsterdamDepartment of Water and Climate Risk, Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit AmsterdamAbstract In 2012, soybean crops failed in the three largest producing regions due to spatially compounded hot and dry weather across North and South America. Here, we present different impact storylines of the 2012 event, calculated by combining a statistical crop model with climate model simulations of 2012 conditions under pre-industrial, present-day (+1 °C), and future (+2 °C) conditions. These simulations use the ECHAM6 climate model and maintain the same observed seasonally evolving atmospheric circulation. Our results demonstrate that anthropogenic warming strongly amplifies the impacts of such a large-scale circulation pattern on global soybean production. Although the drought intensity is similar under different warming levels, larger crop losses are driven not only by warmer temperatures but also by stronger heat-moisture interactions. We estimate that one-third of the global soybean production deficit in 2012 is attributable to anthropogenic climate change. Future warming (+2 °C above pre-industrial) would further exacerbate production deficits by one-half compared to present-day 2012 conditions. This highlights the increasing intensity of global soybean production shocks with warming, requiring urgent adaptation strategies.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02171-x |
| spellingShingle | Raed Hamed Corey Lesk Theodore G. Shepherd Henrique M. D. Goulart Linda van Garderen Bart van den Hurk Dim Coumou One-third of the global soybean production failure in 2012 is attributable to climate change Communications Earth & Environment |
| title | One-third of the global soybean production failure in 2012 is attributable to climate change |
| title_full | One-third of the global soybean production failure in 2012 is attributable to climate change |
| title_fullStr | One-third of the global soybean production failure in 2012 is attributable to climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | One-third of the global soybean production failure in 2012 is attributable to climate change |
| title_short | One-third of the global soybean production failure in 2012 is attributable to climate change |
| title_sort | one third of the global soybean production failure in 2012 is attributable to climate change |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02171-x |
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