Mathematical analysis of Lassa fever epidemic model utilizing Nigeria demographic data
In this paper, we proposed and analysed a non-linear deterministic mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of Lassa fever virus in Nigeria. The basic properties of the model are presented. For the linear stability of the model equilibria the basic reproduction number R0 and other important...
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Elsevier
2025-06-01
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| author | Abdullahi M. Auwal Salisu Usaini |
| author_facet | Abdullahi M. Auwal Salisu Usaini |
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| description | In this paper, we proposed and analysed a non-linear deterministic mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of Lassa fever virus in Nigeria. The basic properties of the model are presented. For the linear stability of the model equilibria the basic reproduction number R0 and other important threshold parameters associated with existence and stability of endemic state are obtained. We showed that the model exhibits two equilibrium points namely: the Lassa fever-free equilibrium point and the endemic equilibrium point. The Lassa fever-free equilibrium Σ˜ is the only local asymptotic stable equilibrium if the threshold parameter in relation to humans, R0h<1 and it is not stable when R0h>1. While the endemic equilibrium point Σ∗ becomes asymptotically stable locally under certain conditions on the associated threshold parameters. Sensitivity analysis of the model parameters indicates that the natural mortality rate of rodents (ψ) and the effective contact rate of rodents (β3)are the basic control parameters associated with persistence or eradication of Lassa fever virus. More precisely, there is an inverse relationship between R0 and ψ so that an increase of the latter leads to the decrease of the former one and vice-versa. In a similar note, increasing (decreasing) the value of β3 keeping all other parameters fixed increases (decreases) the value of R0. We can infer from this result that good environmental sanitation and fumigation would reduce rodents’ population thereby reducing the value of β3 which leads to the decrease of R0. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d5d5b671c7534b2aa92b85f1b5b64233 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2773-1863 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
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| spelling | doaj-art-d5d5b671c7534b2aa92b85f1b5b642332025-08-20T03:24:48ZengElsevierFranklin Open2773-18632025-06-011110027610.1016/j.fraope.2025.100276Mathematical analysis of Lassa fever epidemic model utilizing Nigeria demographic dataAbdullahi M. Auwal0Salisu Usaini1Mathematics and statistics Department, Federal polytechnic, Bauchi, P.M.B 0231, Bauchi, Nigeria; Corresponding author.Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Computing and Mathematical Sciences, Aliko Dangote University of Science and Technology Wudil, Kano, P.MB. 3244, Kano, NigeriaIn this paper, we proposed and analysed a non-linear deterministic mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of Lassa fever virus in Nigeria. The basic properties of the model are presented. For the linear stability of the model equilibria the basic reproduction number R0 and other important threshold parameters associated with existence and stability of endemic state are obtained. We showed that the model exhibits two equilibrium points namely: the Lassa fever-free equilibrium point and the endemic equilibrium point. The Lassa fever-free equilibrium Σ˜ is the only local asymptotic stable equilibrium if the threshold parameter in relation to humans, R0h<1 and it is not stable when R0h>1. While the endemic equilibrium point Σ∗ becomes asymptotically stable locally under certain conditions on the associated threshold parameters. Sensitivity analysis of the model parameters indicates that the natural mortality rate of rodents (ψ) and the effective contact rate of rodents (β3)are the basic control parameters associated with persistence or eradication of Lassa fever virus. More precisely, there is an inverse relationship between R0 and ψ so that an increase of the latter leads to the decrease of the former one and vice-versa. In a similar note, increasing (decreasing) the value of β3 keeping all other parameters fixed increases (decreases) the value of R0. We can infer from this result that good environmental sanitation and fumigation would reduce rodents’ population thereby reducing the value of β3 which leads to the decrease of R0.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2773186325000660Lassa feverThreshold parametersStability analysesModel fittingSensitivity analysis and control parameters |
| spellingShingle | Abdullahi M. Auwal Salisu Usaini Mathematical analysis of Lassa fever epidemic model utilizing Nigeria demographic data Franklin Open Lassa fever Threshold parameters Stability analyses Model fitting Sensitivity analysis and control parameters |
| title | Mathematical analysis of Lassa fever epidemic model utilizing Nigeria demographic data |
| title_full | Mathematical analysis of Lassa fever epidemic model utilizing Nigeria demographic data |
| title_fullStr | Mathematical analysis of Lassa fever epidemic model utilizing Nigeria demographic data |
| title_full_unstemmed | Mathematical analysis of Lassa fever epidemic model utilizing Nigeria demographic data |
| title_short | Mathematical analysis of Lassa fever epidemic model utilizing Nigeria demographic data |
| title_sort | mathematical analysis of lassa fever epidemic model utilizing nigeria demographic data |
| topic | Lassa fever Threshold parameters Stability analyses Model fitting Sensitivity analysis and control parameters |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2773186325000660 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT abdullahimauwal mathematicalanalysisoflassafeverepidemicmodelutilizingnigeriademographicdata AT salisuusaini mathematicalanalysisoflassafeverepidemicmodelutilizingnigeriademographicdata |