Comprehensive Evidence That Detecting Urban Signals in Large‐Scale Warming Is Highly Uncertain

Abstract Increasing urbanization causes urban heat island effects that might introduce significant biases into global warming estimates. Previous studies of urban warming signals and asymmetries remain a subject of debate. Here we comprehensively assess urban‐induced warmings by investigating meteor...

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Main Authors: Pengke Shen, Shuqing Zhao, Zhiyu Xu, Xueqin Zhang, Bo Lu, Zhenyu Han, Menglin Si, Jiashuang Yuan, Lianchun Song, Shuguang Liu
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2025-03-01
Series:Geophysical Research Letters
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115032
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author Pengke Shen
Shuqing Zhao
Zhiyu Xu
Xueqin Zhang
Bo Lu
Zhenyu Han
Menglin Si
Jiashuang Yuan
Lianchun Song
Shuguang Liu
author_facet Pengke Shen
Shuqing Zhao
Zhiyu Xu
Xueqin Zhang
Bo Lu
Zhenyu Han
Menglin Si
Jiashuang Yuan
Lianchun Song
Shuguang Liu
author_sort Pengke Shen
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Increasing urbanization causes urban heat island effects that might introduce significant biases into global warming estimates. Previous studies of urban warming signals and asymmetries remain a subject of debate. Here we comprehensively assess urban‐induced warmings by investigating meteorological temperatures on 2,370 stations in China during 1980–2022. There are noticeable urban‐induced annual warming biases and contributions ranging from 0.016 to 0.251°C decade−1 and 0.3%–72.4%, primarily due to spatiotemporal heterogeneities and the criteria defining urban sites. Rapid urbanization tends to exacerbate diurnal and seasonal warming asymmetries, resulting in shrinking temperature differentials associated with urbanized areas and urbanization chronosequences. This study underscores that the specific definition of urban areas matters for warming biases in magnitude and complex nonlinear urbanization imprint on warming asymmetries.
format Article
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institution OA Journals
issn 0094-8276
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language English
publishDate 2025-03-01
publisher Wiley
record_format Article
series Geophysical Research Letters
spelling doaj-art-d599876feddc4edb9ba67103bf7880a82025-08-20T02:16:05ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-03-01525n/an/a10.1029/2025GL115032Comprehensive Evidence That Detecting Urban Signals in Large‐Scale Warming Is Highly UncertainPengke Shen0Shuqing Zhao1Zhiyu Xu2Xueqin Zhang3Bo Lu4Zhenyu Han5Menglin Si6Jiashuang Yuan7Lianchun Song8Shuguang Liu9State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration Beijing ChinaSchool of Ecology Hainan University Haikou ChinaCollege of Urban and Environmental Sciences and Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education Peking University Beijing ChinaKey Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaNational Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing ChinaNational Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing ChinaState Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaNational Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing ChinaState Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration Beijing ChinaSchool of Ecology Hainan University Haikou ChinaAbstract Increasing urbanization causes urban heat island effects that might introduce significant biases into global warming estimates. Previous studies of urban warming signals and asymmetries remain a subject of debate. Here we comprehensively assess urban‐induced warmings by investigating meteorological temperatures on 2,370 stations in China during 1980–2022. There are noticeable urban‐induced annual warming biases and contributions ranging from 0.016 to 0.251°C decade−1 and 0.3%–72.4%, primarily due to spatiotemporal heterogeneities and the criteria defining urban sites. Rapid urbanization tends to exacerbate diurnal and seasonal warming asymmetries, resulting in shrinking temperature differentials associated with urbanized areas and urbanization chronosequences. This study underscores that the specific definition of urban areas matters for warming biases in magnitude and complex nonlinear urbanization imprint on warming asymmetries.https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115032urbanizationwarming trendstemporal asymmetrycontributionnonlinearity
spellingShingle Pengke Shen
Shuqing Zhao
Zhiyu Xu
Xueqin Zhang
Bo Lu
Zhenyu Han
Menglin Si
Jiashuang Yuan
Lianchun Song
Shuguang Liu
Comprehensive Evidence That Detecting Urban Signals in Large‐Scale Warming Is Highly Uncertain
Geophysical Research Letters
urbanization
warming trends
temporal asymmetry
contribution
nonlinearity
title Comprehensive Evidence That Detecting Urban Signals in Large‐Scale Warming Is Highly Uncertain
title_full Comprehensive Evidence That Detecting Urban Signals in Large‐Scale Warming Is Highly Uncertain
title_fullStr Comprehensive Evidence That Detecting Urban Signals in Large‐Scale Warming Is Highly Uncertain
title_full_unstemmed Comprehensive Evidence That Detecting Urban Signals in Large‐Scale Warming Is Highly Uncertain
title_short Comprehensive Evidence That Detecting Urban Signals in Large‐Scale Warming Is Highly Uncertain
title_sort comprehensive evidence that detecting urban signals in large scale warming is highly uncertain
topic urbanization
warming trends
temporal asymmetry
contribution
nonlinearity
url https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115032
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