Runoff Evolution Patterns and Attribution Analysis in Xiliu Songhua River Basin
The Xiliu Songhua River Basin in northeast China was selected as the research object to quantitatively analyze the driving mechanism of climate change and human activities on runoff evolution under the background of global warming and reveal the evolution law of water cycle in cold regions and its e...
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Editorial Office of Pearl River
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Renmin Zhujiang |
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| Online Access: | http://www.renminzhujiang.cn/thesisDetails?columnId=89296139&Fpath=home&index=0 |
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| author | YAN Yuliang DING Hong ZHANG Jiayue GAO Yu |
| author_facet | YAN Yuliang DING Hong ZHANG Jiayue GAO Yu |
| author_sort | YAN Yuliang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The Xiliu Songhua River Basin in northeast China was selected as the research object to quantitatively analyze the driving mechanism of climate change and human activities on runoff evolution under the background of global warming and reveal the evolution law of water cycle in cold regions and its eco-hydrological effects. A precipitation phase discrimination model was constructed based on the wet-bulb temperature threshold method, and the Budyko equation was improved by introducing the snowfall ratio. Combined with multi-source methods such as spatial interpolation of meteorological data, Pettitt mutation test, Mann-Kendall trend test, and land use transfer matrix, the synergistic effect of climate factors and underlying surface parameters was systematically evaluated. The annual runoff at Fuyu Station and Jilin Station increased significantly at a rate of 0.12 mm/a and 1.77 mm/a, respectively. The annual average precipitation and annual average snowfall ratio in the basin showed a continuous increasing trend, while the annual average potential evapotranspiration showed a continuous decreasing trend. In terms of spatial distribution, the annual average precipitation and annual average snowfall ratio in the basin showed a trend of less in the north and more in the south, while the annual average potential evapotranspiration showed a pattern of more in the north and less in the south. The contribution rate of precipitation humidification to runoff change reached 57.24%–66.89%, and the contribution rate of human activities was only 4.39%–7.52%. The proposed SR-Budyko coupling framework effectively solved the defects of traditional models in rain and snow phase identification and freeze-thaw energy and water exchange characterization and provided a new theoretical tool for the optimization of water resources systems in cold regions, spring flood disaster prevention and control, and the protection of ecological barriers in northeast China. It has important practical guiding value for water security decision-making in climate change-sensitive areas. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d55a5b02563441f6bc23adca9fee260f |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1001-9235 |
| language | zho |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Editorial Office of Pearl River |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Renmin Zhujiang |
| spelling | doaj-art-d55a5b02563441f6bc23adca9fee260f2025-08-20T03:09:07ZzhoEditorial Office of Pearl RiverRenmin Zhujiang1001-92352025-01-0111289296139Runoff Evolution Patterns and Attribution Analysis in Xiliu Songhua River BasinYAN YuliangDING HongZHANG JiayueGAO YuThe Xiliu Songhua River Basin in northeast China was selected as the research object to quantitatively analyze the driving mechanism of climate change and human activities on runoff evolution under the background of global warming and reveal the evolution law of water cycle in cold regions and its eco-hydrological effects. A precipitation phase discrimination model was constructed based on the wet-bulb temperature threshold method, and the Budyko equation was improved by introducing the snowfall ratio. Combined with multi-source methods such as spatial interpolation of meteorological data, Pettitt mutation test, Mann-Kendall trend test, and land use transfer matrix, the synergistic effect of climate factors and underlying surface parameters was systematically evaluated. The annual runoff at Fuyu Station and Jilin Station increased significantly at a rate of 0.12 mm/a and 1.77 mm/a, respectively. The annual average precipitation and annual average snowfall ratio in the basin showed a continuous increasing trend, while the annual average potential evapotranspiration showed a continuous decreasing trend. In terms of spatial distribution, the annual average precipitation and annual average snowfall ratio in the basin showed a trend of less in the north and more in the south, while the annual average potential evapotranspiration showed a pattern of more in the north and less in the south. The contribution rate of precipitation humidification to runoff change reached 57.24%–66.89%, and the contribution rate of human activities was only 4.39%–7.52%. The proposed SR-Budyko coupling framework effectively solved the defects of traditional models in rain and snow phase identification and freeze-thaw energy and water exchange characterization and provided a new theoretical tool for the optimization of water resources systems in cold regions, spring flood disaster prevention and control, and the protection of ecological barriers in northeast China. It has important practical guiding value for water security decision-making in climate change-sensitive areas.http://www.renminzhujiang.cn/thesisDetails?columnId=89296139&Fpath=home&index=0precipitation typeBudyko frameworkrunoff changeclimate changeXiliu Songhua River |
| spellingShingle | YAN Yuliang DING Hong ZHANG Jiayue GAO Yu Runoff Evolution Patterns and Attribution Analysis in Xiliu Songhua River Basin Renmin Zhujiang precipitation type Budyko framework runoff change climate change Xiliu Songhua River |
| title | Runoff Evolution Patterns and Attribution Analysis in Xiliu Songhua River Basin |
| title_full | Runoff Evolution Patterns and Attribution Analysis in Xiliu Songhua River Basin |
| title_fullStr | Runoff Evolution Patterns and Attribution Analysis in Xiliu Songhua River Basin |
| title_full_unstemmed | Runoff Evolution Patterns and Attribution Analysis in Xiliu Songhua River Basin |
| title_short | Runoff Evolution Patterns and Attribution Analysis in Xiliu Songhua River Basin |
| title_sort | runoff evolution patterns and attribution analysis in xiliu songhua river basin |
| topic | precipitation type Budyko framework runoff change climate change Xiliu Songhua River |
| url | http://www.renminzhujiang.cn/thesisDetails?columnId=89296139&Fpath=home&index=0 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT yanyuliang runoffevolutionpatternsandattributionanalysisinxiliusonghuariverbasin AT dinghong runoffevolutionpatternsandattributionanalysisinxiliusonghuariverbasin AT zhangjiayue runoffevolutionpatternsandattributionanalysisinxiliusonghuariverbasin AT gaoyu runoffevolutionpatternsandattributionanalysisinxiliusonghuariverbasin |